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ICETAB

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Everything posted by ICETAB

  1. ICETAB
    That forecast is poor compared to what we have seen in previous days. Not good IMO
  2. ICETAB
    Even though we miss the initial easterly we still have the building blocks for deep cold. I see allot of potential following on from the 240h chart
  3. ICETAB
    You are mistaken. Solar activity did indeed increase but it was far from normal. In the last two months it has reduced significantly and remains low/very low
  4. ICETAB
    Subtle improvments showing on the 06z GFS. It should develop into something more interesting down the line. High pressure looks a little more robust further north It would be nice to see the GFS start to back the GEM. Is the GEM a German model?
  5. ICETAB
    The 240 chart on the 0z GEM model is the chart of the day for me. Shame it's cannon fodder! Edit: I think it's actually the best chart of the season
  6. ICETAB
    What sort of weather conditions does that chart show for the UK?
  7. ICETAB
    Looking promising for a colder pattern on ECM at T216. Blocking appearing to our north?
  8. ICETAB
    It's only out to T168! Are you looking at the northern hemisphere charts?
  9. ICETAB
    A very different pattern emerging on later frames of the GFS. A sustained northley blast could be possible... I hope we keep seeing these sort of charts going through Xmas
  10. ICETAB
    So if the warming continues to strengthen in the current position it is likely that blocking will occur over the Canadian sector, making colder conditions unlikely over Europe?
  11. ICETAB
    The northern hemisphere view for the 240 ECM looks a little more promising to me. High pressure building of the arctic. Could that ridge forming migrate further north and split the vortex?
  12. ICETAB
    Does anyone know how well the CFS predicted the last 3 cold winters from this sort of range?
  13. ICETAB
    I stand by my initial assessment. I think it will turn colder at the end of next week and I fully expect to see northern blocking to start showing in the model ouputs.
  14. ICETAB
    GEM @ 240 h looks interesting to me. It could go on to develop a GH. After viewing this mornings model output I have no reason to change my current view of a cold spell ariving from around the 18th, maybe a little later. I think the models should start to pick up on this over the next few days. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif
  15. ICETAB
    Agreed, I cannot see any changes in the reliable. I expect this to change next week though. GFS has been showing signs of a cool down in FI for a while now, have you noticed this?
  16. ICETAB
    00z GFS continues to suggest a pattern change around mid-month. I still say we will get the first taste of winter on the 18th. That conclusion is not based on one run. I have seen a pattern change showing on the 00z GFS over the past four days. I live in the NW so the current FI synoptic setup showing on this morning’s GFS would suit perfectly
  17. ICETAB
    I disagree with your view. You are correct in saying that FI is what it says on the tin, however it is about picking up trends and GFS has been consistently leaning towards northern blocking in its later timeframes for the past 3 days at least. I think it might just be on to something. I personally believe that we will be in our first cold spell from the 18th November. We may not see widespread snow, but it will feel like winter everywhere. ECM does not go out far enough to compare against the GFS.
  18. ICETAB
    I have a sneaky suspicion that if the ECM went out further we would see the high pressure building to our west, migrating north east. Obviously this is pure speculation at this point. Looking beyond T168 should be classed as a bit of fun. Verification after this point is always poor. I do think we will see a colder trend emerging as we go through the weekend though. It looks like the AO forecast is going towards a negative phase?
  19. ICETAB
    FI on the ECM looks interesting tonight. If only it was december!
  20. ICETAB
    Well the models can't lock down the likely longer term outlook at the moment. I see the AO forecast is pretty much split between going strongly negative to weakly positive. I think this uncertainty will be reflected in the models over the next few days. My bet is that we will see it take a nose dive leading up to November with plenty of northern blocking showing up in model output later this month. Just a hunch...
  21. ICETAB
    Downgrades! If the last 3 winters are anything to go by then I'd say we will be looking at upgrades over the next few days... Bring it on. I'll stop ramping now.
  22. ICETAB
    OMG ECM is looking cold going in to FI. This pattern is becoming the trend on all models. I think we're going to see an early start to winter. Its a good sign seeing these kind of patterns being thrown up.
  23. ICETAB
    I was thinking of Glacier Point. Steve Murr is of course a legend in his own lunchtime. So GP has not been posting this summer/autum then? I'd like to get his view on the situation for the coming winter.
  24. ICETAB
    There was a chap that posted detailed analysis of teleconnections and his view on the impact it would have on the weather. I seem to remember his forecast being very accurate for the past two years. Does anyone recall his name and know if he has posted his thoughts for the coming winter. Sorry bit off topic!
  25. ICETAB
    Sneaky sneaky
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