ICETAB

I believe that nature is more proactive than you think. I do not recall seeing squirrels collecting nuts prior to the warmer winters of the past. I've been noticing these things more and more recently. Is it just me?

I see the ENSO forecast has been updated and it looks like we are headed for another La Nina winter, although probably not as strong. Does this mean we are likley to get another cold start to winter, although not as cold. Also, will winter end at the start of Jan similar to last. Maybe Mr Data can post some stats on classic winters of the past and whether they were La Nina years?

Looks like high pressure wants to move to greenland on the ECM model. If the current ECM 240 chart verified at the end of November we would be looking at a country wide snow event. Lets hope it comes off and then the pattern repeats in a couple of months. I can't wait for winter!

-1.2 for me

Thank you sir.

Where can I find the stratospheric model output?

That makes sense. Thanks for the feedback Nick.

I've been lingering in the background as a reader of this forum for the last three winters, so thought it was about time a made a contribution. More of a question/questions really. At this stage, I firmly believe that what we are seeing on the ECM will be closer to the eventual solution. My question is, have we ever had a severe snow event from the type of evolution (240) being shown on the ECM. Normally when I think of weather from a North West air flow, I think of a variation between mild and cool, with rain. If the air is PM it gets modified by the large area of ocean it has to cross before it reaches land. It ends up milder and containing more moisture. However, I wonder if there have been times in the past where the air has come from this location and been cold enough to support snow. Maybe Mr. Data can answer? Also, do you think it is possible for the high pressure building to our southwest, again ECM 240 chart, to move north? It seems like high pressure started building north or transferring from south to north when the AO started to trend negative in December. It went negative at the start of December, and then it dropped to -5 on the 23rd and then went to -5 again on the 8th of Jan. I believe these dates co-inside with high pressure building to our north. Taking this in to account, does anyone think it is plausible for the pressure building south west on ECM 240 to start ridging slowly north. Surely this would put a larger gradient on any NW wind that develops, making it cold zonality. This takes me back to the previous question, is it possible to get snow from that setup. If you could I would expect much larger amounts of snow due to the nature of Atlantic driven systems. The above is hypothetically speaking, as I know how unreliable charts are out at 240. My hypothesis however, is that the high building southwest will ridge north when/if the AO falls, as predicted around the 25th/26th of Jan. I think it will settle just west of Greenland. This will bring a north westerly, followed by a potent prolonged northerly when it move east slightly.