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chicken soup

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Posts posted by chicken soup

    North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

    - Wiggle room on 23rd for adjustments  needs a watch. Currently hi res is all over the place so can not say what % chance is of it sliding into NW. Might not be enough cold momentum to lower snow line to lower levels but I wouldn't bet against it. I am interested by the stall and undercut potential this event has.

    24th & 25th all up in arms if we get the low in the precip shadow looks fairly weak, there would be one but the 700mb flow & circular motion will allow for it to be eroded by clusters of convection

    If we get a strong convective easterly in 26th onwards m6 east for big showers

     

    If if if if if

    But my experience of Easterlies here are we just end up with scraps from showers due to pennines....that's blackburn area ..I know the likes of Oldham and Manchester do better.

    Model output discussion - Christmas approaches

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, snowking said:

    ~15.15 Icon rolls out, doesn't show what any coldie wants it to, gets disregarded as cannon fodder

    ~16.00 GFS & UKMO rolls out, GFS op shows a full blown Easterly, is declared the "Greatest Forecast System" ever assembled, cold spell declared, Daily Express starts preparing the Caps Lock key for a battering. UKMO not on board but rightfully ignored.

    ~16.45 GFS ensembles are analysed, nobody as a clue what is going on

    ~17.00 Jules finds 4 bad ensemble members, has a moan

    ~18.00 ECM starts to roll out, everyone looks to Sheiky for a "steady as she goes at T+0" post

    ~18.45 ECM sits somewhere in the middle of the envelope

    ~20.00 Everyone asks Bluearmy and Mulzy what the clusters are showing

    ~20.15 One of them dashes all of our dreams as the clusters prove inconclusive

    ~22.00 GFS 18z rolls out, is completely different to 12z

    ~04.00 the overnight crew takes over, are usually downbeat.

    Rinse, repeat.

    Lol..I reckon this will be very close to what actually happens next few hours in here.

    • Like 2

    North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

    image.thumb.png.cb7f101ccfc4341802526871e93efb52.png

     

    There's the two main directions snow have come from next week. No wonder @chicken soup was so adamant that Easterly's would be crap in this neck of the woods. Awful cold spell, woke up to a covering one day and dustings the rest but with 600m hills to kill precip from one direction and 500m hills to kill it from another direction, no wonder it's dung.

     

    All eyes on breakdown. 

    I take no joy in being right about easterlies here.. We need a nuke dropping on the pennines. 

    • Like 3

    North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    35 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    ECM 12z

    Here it comes!

    image.thumb.png.b354c95b924f1acd4434186cd3f20e43.png

    ...oh no.. just gets to parts of Lancashire and Cumbria..

    image.thumb.png.d2d0b6246a18bb7fcd9d82278e63f323.png

    I'm not holding out for a snowy breakdown and I think on the whole, it just a question on when the change to milder weather comes rather than whether it comes or not. 

    If it happens like this I'm giving up on chasing snow.. Its almost like its impossible to get a decent frontal snow event into this region.. Does my head in. 

    • Like 2
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