ZONE 51

Well that's the weather !! I won't be moaning need to just move on and see what's next on the horizon. I think that due to the type of set-up this year over the last couple of months with the angle of Atlantic activity and mixed cool/warm air there is quite a good chance of pulling up warm humid air and creating thunderstorms, and also the features associated with low pressure's and cooler upper temperatures with surface heating causing home-grown T-storms.

Here we are an image design job for history, because I don't think it will change for properly 300 years.. that's just an estimation might add some more 000000000000000000000000000000000

My confidence increasing, more so if it stays active across the lake! should be OK I think, the models show this and it does get inland over here. any sunshine today also helping to set of the storms. I'm off now and be checking the convective thread today! have a good day all!

Coast, I was nervous making my storm map this morning leaving a gap across central southern areas.. although I did put lowest risk as it is possible for some isolated cells to affect there. the greatest risk from the SE and a wide line up into the Midlands zones I think today, today is different but still not that confident but much more so than the last few days when I expected storms. but there we go it's the weather and it's a most interesting science!

The flow southeast bringing the developing storms into our regions this morning, in fact running the radar there not veering off to the right! headed this way. the upper and surface flows look good for today if you like imported and homegrown weather..

Let's wait until the weekend before asking all the questions!! something has happened, remember the deep Biscay / east Atlantic lows in summer months cold front sitting out west pulling up hot air deep south and also pulling up storms all the way up to the Northeast before moving into north sea? be night-time south and usually day-time getting to north. Need to find out why the pattern that brings those synoptics are not there!

What's over the lake at the moment? here is a radar about an hr ago, some convective action has kicked off recently over in north France heading up to the coast there..

Very warm and humid air today, increasing precipitation risk for England and Wales, high dewpoints and humidity, unstable air mass through today some CAPE and lifted index into the -1 to -2 mark across central areas in particular, I expect thunderstorms to develop inland and possible imported storms most likely from this afternoon, risk of MCS up eastern side tonight. My storm map is for today up to midnight. Any storms that do break out would be intense and heavy. ESS

There thinking the storms/further MCS as developing now are going northeast and east and some up the north sea maybe? the ppn charts certainly show some intense stuff heading up clipping kent and east Anglia, that I would imagine is the main expected focus(more east) for thunderstorms. it can be surprising just how big MCS's can expand, the cloud edge would affect this afternoons convection I think. Some new storms now breaking out east side of France.(as seen on satellite) OK maybe are set alarm and check in a few hour then! Keeping check on developments towards the west/sw UK for heavy and maybe thundery rain band.

MCS goes east line of covection now goes west?? what is happening can we have some storms to the south and move directly north..

The Hamburg cam must be on auto-focus? keeps going in/out focus maybe the lightning causing that effect.

I have been recording the cam using screen recorder and taking images in a video editor, i might post some later. Is there any other cams nearer to the storms you know of?, I did search but couldn't find live streaming apart from Earth cam, thanks.

Only a guild on ppn not storms but it's a start! I decided to not do a local storm map it's difficult to say and don't want to add to any disappointment. Plenty of interest over the days ahead for many. although if I did a map I would cover all of England and Wales as the storm risk is there for many.

Done 3 maps using data from GFS/UKMO/NAE latest runs. 24hr precipitation maps starting 0000hrs. They are not pin point accurate bit fiddly doing that but this is where the main rain(or other)is expected by the model, not done intensity map, just anything 3mm or more, not included the 1mm light stuff(per 3hrs..) All models show a line of heavy ppn up the west side into southwest UK, I expect this to turn thundery. ALL 3 models also show heavy and some intense ppn up the north sea clipping Kent and East anglia, these should be thundery/MSC maybe. NAE shows heavy cells into southeast UK moving north today. -- Map key - blue=GFS 18Z green=UKMO 12z yellow=NAE 18Z ESS

The storms are yet to develop (if they do) I won't say certainly will do as to avoid expectation and the following disappointment.

I don't think it's over for the thunder yet, in fact it's yet to begin lol! Really though I expect things to spark off later in the night, I don't need to look at the updated models as plenty of info from others but I am looking at doing a small storm map so may have a look.

I'm keeping watch on developments to the west side of the MCS and also what develops when it.s moved away, I don't expect this one to be there until 4am when other/more thunderstorms move into the south early hrs.

Latest satellite looks amazing, how wide can the MCS storm get! it plumes out at the sides expanding making it look like it's going northeast and northwest at the same time. I have drawn arrows where I think the MCS is going and to the left/west side of this new thunderstorms are breaking out-it's these that should also turn into large scale storms later.

NAE 0300-0900hrs Thurs A lot of activity also indicated into the southwest as a line of thundery rain early thrs

Look to the left side of the MCS.. see the cells breaking off the side there. I think it's one of those night where when things set off they really do!

Why can it not be that other people have our storm left overs!

See these triangles with lines on here.. Midnight tonight GFS

I thought GFS had something central south? always the east side is highest risk, if the main stuff goes east side I still expect active cells across many southern parts early Thursday.

That lot looks incredible watched back the satellite images of the growing storms over the lake, really thought they were going to stay electrical inland after getting over the channel! The "main event" tonight as TJ say's looking forward to that to! We now have the "tropical" plume arriving, it certainly will feel tropical today! we could do with a longer plume from far south pushing the storms all up into the north, it seems they are close but brushing the east side.. get the magnets out! lol won't need one tonight I can tell u! Only my thoughts if they go east don't blame me! I need an electrical show its been 4 years this summer July/August.. although the 25th Dec was quite an incredible treat when an active storm turned up early morning was dark, but was sheet lightning.

This evening is likely to feel much more different as the hot and humid air moves into the SE UK, just showing these so you can see where the plume is. I expect large thunderstorms to develop over France this evening and head north it's these that I think would affect SE/EA and more west of southeast, more of the south. as seen by the deeper oranges on the upper temps 850hpa. The very warm humid(tropical)feeling air moving further north 850 temps, these are the upper temperatures. GFS 00Z showing a blob right in Central south this eve, this must be a storm.. Lifted index for this eve, some unstable air over south UK, imports most likely plenty of energy to build storms is across the lake, these would keep going over the Channel. Plenty of heat and moisture now.