ZONE 51

Hi K, are take a look at the charts and read back on here but be a while before I post much on the the storms maybe not until the next updates.. I can nip over to weatheronline and take a quick look for Ipswich

Thanks SC. Just a thought, I think it is possible that some active electrical storms could not so up on the usual ppn charts even show nothing(until the near hrs where they are shown as small patches or intense cells if heavy). sometimes not much ppn reaching the ground.

Data GFS 00z. The image below is for this evening, this shows the hot and humid moist plume over Spain moving through France and towards the UK, Thickness 850/1000hpa: Surface temps hot over Spain and France today: This is the hot air-mass heading our way arriving as warm potentially very warm air across the south more especially the SE on Monday, the hotter air not to far away by Tuesday with a very humid air for some across the south. I wouldn't be showing this in a convective thread if there wasn't the risk of thunder, so let's take a look at that risk. Just before that though I want to show you the Thickness 850/1000hpa for Tuesday: Here it shows the warm and humid air has arrived, the deeper oranges across the southeast indicating very warm air here. Next is the lifted index over the next 3 days, the yellow is unstable air, the oranges and reds indicate very unstable air-higher risk of thunderstorms more energy available in the atmosphere to use to create them: Sunday evening(today) Not much showing inland. The unstable air comes with the plume of moist warm air, depending on how the Atlantic low pressure moves and where-this pulling up this air-mass: This chart shows that area of low pressure to our southwest this evening. Next more lifted index charts. Monday morning: Unstable air over France getting near to our shores Monday afternoon(next) This is thundery air, arriving through Monday, especially Monday evening and night Monday evening/night: Thunderstorms over France moving towards south UK, these most likely for the southeast Tuesday 0000hrs next: Precipitation Monday morning into afternoon: Wet into SW UK. Taking a look at Monday evening potentially thundery rain into the south/se, clusters of thunderstorms perhaps an large scale storm..could there be an MCS? won't answer that now.. Next is into Monday night/early hours of Tuesday: I'm going to leave it there now look forward to posts from other's on this potential. ESS

Do I get a film for the SLR for next week... bulb they call it.. open shutter for a minute or two and you might get one of those photos of lightning at night... this may shock the camera as it's not seen that before..

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76905-south-east-east-anglia-regional-discussion-8th-june-2013-onwards/?p=2714829 -- Edited see link for JP's full post. - JP I was thinking this too, I expect storms to move into our area next week, maybe the type where decent displays are visible lightning up the clouds, I would imagine elevated one's that keep going overnight and don't weaken over the channel, be better to get storm/clear gap type as are visible from long distance, I think a band of thundery rain too.

I think it could intensify maybe turn more thundery? Had the bottom edge of the line was very heavy here in Stanwell, large convective rain drops. sunny breaks now. Looking interesting next week, if anyone that has viewed the Met Office Fax charts would know that the SE could get the edge of plume, the 564 dam line just scrapping up towards SE(Kent most likely storms), perhaps the thunderstorms arriving at dark, there is a triple point system shown on the charts, things could get very interesting!

Look at the Met Office radar now for 1545(pm) (taken a screen copy as it would change if this is viewed later) Take a look at the radar here and Tony Gilbert's forecast on UKWW http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/98366-convective-outlook-saturday-15th-june-2013/page__view__findpost__p__860058 It's even the same shape as the outline/box! http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observations/#?tab=map&map=Rainfall&zoom=9&locId=350928&fcTime=1371264300&lon=-0.34&lat=51.58

Just got a window snap of it..

Torrential downpour now here at Stanwell, next to Heathrow ap south side. large drops torrential

Very windy here next to Heathrow ap. gusting around 40mph around the area. Dark fast moving stormy looking clouds, would say Cumulonimbus and Nimbostratus.. I expect some enhanced gusts as these downpours breeze by/move in. Bubbly cloud tops now visible in gaps., had some recent sunny breaks this helping lift up the clouds into bigger clouds!

I have taken a couple of quotes from the article from the following link - http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/2013/apr/17/dark-lightning-sheds-light-on-gamma-ray-mystery I didn't know about this didn't see it, thanks PP , I must take a read on this subject it looks interesting.

GFS 18z other not updated yet 1) 2) Today unstable air, yellow area is the most unstable. 3) CAPE shows that thunder a risk today. 4)Surface wind flows for midday.(larger image so can view closer) Surface wind flows for midday(above) 5)UKMO 12z - low pressure UKMO 12z Low pressure today Not looks closely so are leave it to other to say where storms could be today(or look back a page or two for recent model runs) Heavy showers and thunder likely, not sure exactly at this stage what develops later but could be some surprises in there.

Yes need to keep watch on thunderstorms today I was focused on the thundery plume event would have done a post later for today but getting on with time, actually are just go and get some charts... So much interest in the weather at the moment! 230am radar from weather online

Very gusty where I am next to Heathrow. Next week very much interest on the plume low(as I call it from now on) pulling up potentially very unstable moist and thundery air-mass early next week, Theta-W-850s (wet bulb potential temperature) possibly up to 18C across the SE! Monday evening GFS 18z Monday evening 18z - Lifted Index - this chart shows unstable air into south UK, with severe thnuderstorms over on the near continent and I expect imported storms into the UK. Monday evening GFS 12z(not loading update) - Rain/ppn - Thundery rain - torrential rain with potentially severe thunderstorms into the south. into the night hours Mon.. Convective cloud cover and soaring index Mon evening GFS - 12z. - I would expect later Monday thunderstorms to affect the south, the southeast at highest risk here. ESS

Very gusty conditions developing now with the rain. Also through Saturday very windy weather possible. Here is a recent radar image from - http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/ Heavy band of rainfall moving in from the west now crossing the SE/EA over the next few hours. ---- Through the afternoon winds becoming very gusty again, the image below shows the tight isobars across the SE particularly, -- Next week's image may come as a surprise to many.. that is quite something for this time the year! The charts are NAE

The general mean speed I was meant to say I think to be more accurate. I was on about more of the feel of wind rather than anything technical. I understand what you are explaining though.

Must note the winds for today, an unusual development for June with an Atlantic feature creating a tight pressure gradient across Southern England with very very gusty strong and potentially damaging winds across South UK today (Thursday) 1) 13/6 - Surface pressure UKMO 12z Low pressure to the north high pressure to the south over France. 2) 13/6 Wind gust 10m Knots - GFS 18z The orange area shown on this chart is where we can expect the very strong wind zone through Thursday(today) Images 3 and 4) for 13/6 - Cloud cover NAE 18z these charts showing some thinning cloud with some cloud breaks and sunshine across South UK, not much rainfall showing across the South today(at this stage) from (south of a line) SW England -East Anglia, maybe showers.(grey area = thinner cloud) NAE precipitation 18z - mostly dry across the South. Keep check on the convective thread.. as shown on ppn charts some activity(ppn)for Central/Northen areas maybe thunderstorms here. South UK - potentially gales or severe gales, trees are in full leaf more so than a few weeks ago when we had some rough windy spells, 40-50mph generally maybe more in places. From my experience in these situations the winds would be long continuous gusts. Also watch out for possible very strong convective gusts further North in any convective showers or storms. ------------------------------------ Netweather and The Met Office have issued wind warnings. - ESS

Just read through interesting posts, thought i'd post this radar has an interesting shape.. still keeping check on things through this eve for northern areas..

Yes it's quite an increase in humid/warm air mass compared to the previous evening. Interesting I noticed golden edge small sharp cumulus and what appeared to be Altocumulus castellanus cloud only tiny but in lines at sunset, this increase in warmer and humid upper air creating them. This is a sign of thunderstorms within 24-36hrs. It's a signal I look out for at sunset and also sunrise. An interesting day for weather for many today, precipitation GFS 18z: Looking at the FAX and some model data, some widespread downpours and perhaps thunderstorms.. NAE 18z (above) These are the 18z so I won't post anymore as plenty been posted for todays weather. Interested in the next update I shall be back later to take a look on here! See below what Al-Cas looks like: http://www.rmets.org/weather-and-climate/image-gallery/altocumulus-castellanus-sunset - Not sure if can put this here, it's about green skies during severe weather(I have experienced green sky during a severe day storm in the past) http://optics.kulgun.net/GreenClouds/ Jumping ahead Sunday/Monday - Warm thundery air-mass: Charts Monday. - Alot of incredible charts of many colors posted recently! CAPE..Lifted index..850s.. - ESS

What make is it?

Still looking interesting for next Thursday: keep watch on the changes on the FAX charts. I see the warm moist plume over France/Spain moving north east could just gets things going over SE UK. Changes possible if not likely. ESS -- (Could someone move to Thursday thread sorry! also could you take this part in brackets out thanks)

Look at this massive amount of strikes.. You can see the IOW storms there as reported above. (all the lightning on the map is over-layed strikes for the last hour, orange most recent. Here is rainfall same time: The satellite from the Met Office can be found here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observations/#?tab=map&map=SatelliteIR&zoom=5&locId=350928&lon=1.03&lat=49.28&fcTime=1370538000 The cloud on the satellite is expanding quite fast over the channel taking the images back a few hours and up to a recent image. The IOW storm looks as though it's tracking northwest from there.

Met Office surface pressure +120 (Tue 1300hrs) Cold front moving east into west UK connected to a large scale low, followed by an interesting looking smaller low pressure system(not that the cold front isn't going to be interesting..) , a head of this it a small feature over north France could develop, perhaps something for the SE, it may get shifted to the east to fast, if that lot gets in then could be some flooding. This from next Tuesday

The NW forecast mentioned the showers..I should have read this on the day like I normally do! I didn't look at any forecast yesterday during the day.

Welcome to the forum GC! Exactly what I thought when heavy rain was hitting my roof a few hours ago