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ZONE 51

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  1. ZONE 51
    Below are two images i have put together- 1-ECM 12Z/GFS 18Z previous/recent for Thurs 21/2 2-UKMO 12Z/GFS 18Z/ECM 12Z (recent runs)for Fri 22/2 Looking dry and cold for all, freezing nights!! snow shws Southeast maybe further up East coast mid-late wk. It could be boring(depends on what you favour)it could be helpful being dry, but it's an Easterly and that's what most are chasing are they not!?? I would like at least some light snow flurries from the cloud!
  2. ZONE 51
    GFS 18z - Thickness 850/1000hpa 168hrs(next Saturday) 180hrs (next Sunday) Very cold all areas, there would be a lot of cloud down east side of UK. - ECM 850s 120hrs(Thurs) -11C upper temps into SE/EA - ECM 850s Central Europe 120hrs this shows where the coldest airmass goes (at this stage)
  3. ZONE 51
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/9873053/Graphic-Russian-meteor-impact-explained.html The smoke trail.. anyone think it was the height of a cumulus cloud? certainly looks it to me. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulus_cloud
  4. ZONE 51
    The image above contains the original photo/frame and an adjusted brightness image where i reduced brightness and gamma with an enlargement box that shows a small amount of extra detail in the center of the fireball.
  5. ZONE 51
    Just went through the list i can't find it! that's where i got the date from under Next Earth Close Approach.
  6. ZONE 51
    http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Operations/Russian_asteroid_strike Incredible stuff this, very interesting. Watched the news on BBC/ITV amazing footage. Heard on radio afternoon about something going on while i was travelling, only caught bits of it so at that point i didn't know it was a meteor although they mentioned the Asteroid and said there not connected, i gathered some big incident/event had happened, i heard the words "sonic boom" "coincidence" and "not connected" . When i saw the news my first thoughts were "wow incredible" "hope everyone is ok" then i imagined the near earth pass of the Asteroid and thought maybe it pulled in the Meteor. Check out this Asteroid named 2004FU 162 - this predicted to near miss Earth 17/3/13 (8m size) I found this out while searching on a space agency site, was in the list of "a risk" !! I can't find 2004FU 162 in the list, it was there!! Click link below, when on the site click Full Risk list. Then look at object name. Link here:http://neo.ssa.esa.i...guest/risk-page (let me know if anyone finds info on it thanks) It's predicted to be a near miss.
  7. ZONE 51
    I would like to get my thoughts in early on spring before my LRF late Feb. March- I would like March to be cold crisp and with snow showers at times from the NE/E, March is a month when we see a higher chance of high pressure, depending on placement this could mean cold/warm, at this point i see not much evidence of an early warm spell, i am expecting a cold and wintry month with mild days at times, a quieter more settled month in terms of Atlantic activity, we can of course receive Atlantic storms, it is a month which has recorded some potent wind storms even in the the south. I'm starting to get signals of a cold northeasterly and easterly flow being frequent, but high pressure with calm frosty weather at times, i see this affecting the east/south mostly, with Atlantic weather affecting northwest mostly. April- This is as far as i go at this point and not more than early month, small signals of an early warm spell after a wintry start. ESS
  8. ZONE 51
    Image below GFS/ECM compare 20/2
  9. ZONE 51
    It will feel like a heatwave! when compared to what we have experienced then anyone with 10C tmw would notice it.
  10. ZONE 51
    I have increasing confidence of an increasing risk next week of a wintry spell.. Rain here now(around Esher) had steady snow with a dusting around 5pm, was actually a little like blizzard conditions in gusty winds.. maybe over dramatic then! really it gave a dusting on roofs and cars but melted soon after it stopped.
  11. ZONE 51
    23rd Feb 850s ECM..shows -10/-11C uppers ..
  12. ZONE 51
    I know ECM! Thanks for that anyway.
  13. ZONE 51
    http://en.wikipedia....orrection_model??
  14. ZONE 51
    Dancing
  15. ZONE 51
    And here is the proof....
  16. ZONE 51
    It's likely to become rather wintry SE/EA next week..
  17. ZONE 51
    Air flow still to have a southeasterly element to it later tmw before the weather fronts, cold air from the continent . Certainly rain after the falling snow though!
  18. ZONE 51
    Done a snow risk map using 12z/18z model data, the start of this risk for SE/EA is tomorrow evening. (The map is a very small file size 12k) ESS
  19. ZONE 51
    Looking far ahead, into March, it's a higher chance our area will experience cold weather then mild, i expect a wintry month with snowy spells, and will place my thoughts in the spring thread at some point, might do a forecast.
  20. ZONE 51
    Northeasterly flow picking up moisture from the north sea
  21. ZONE 51
    Look at this Thickness chart 850/1000hoa It really gives some impact to the mild air out west and the cold air east with the dividing line down center of the UK on Wednesday eve, This battle would ensure a northern snow event, i think our region should get some wet snow/sleet low ground for a while, but over the high ground and north of the region then more snow on low ground.
  22. ZONE 51
    Its looks like we are going to see snow fluffies on and off tomorrow and tomorrow night. Only light though and just a dusting in places, scattered snow!
  23. ZONE 51
    Just snapped an image of the line of snow!! (1230am)
  24. ZONE 51
    BBC London/SE weather watched just now are still expecting a spell of snow late Wednesday before turning to rain by Thursday. Interesting snow-rain transition this will be! Watched the heavy snow early hours with a bright orange sky, my lampposts stayed on as they do here! i think council only turns off on some estates. Had a light covering early morning and snow showers on/off today mostly morning.
  25. ZONE 51
    Just some light snow showers around, looking at radar not much about at the moment.Risk of falling snow Late Wednesday as a weather system bringing mild air hits the cold, EA looking like the highest risk of seeing this happening. Not expecting anything much at this stage, although a period of snow across inland SE most likely over hills, and in EA, is possible on the front edge of the system. After that Thursday very wet weather is possible with flooding as ground is sensitive now. Looking ahead next week could see cold/wintry weather returning.
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