Weathizard

Oh dear oh dear

Oh well, enjoy Christmas everyone!

Dreadful UKMO

Have we ever seen such a ridiculous difference, I know it’s 8 days away but one of these models is going to have serious egg on face

Not buying the 6z run to be honest, look at the Madrid pressure, very unlikely.

Unless I’m missing something, these charts look majorly different to me, aside from the push of heights towards scandi, Maybe the ECM needs to go to specsavers because it’s copying is sub standard

ECM having not much of it, I know who I trust in this situation having been here many times down the years, look at the pressure difference in the Iceland area at day 6, that’s the key area. I just can’t see the EC being that wrong. 168 is a nudge in the right direction with pressure lowering to the south

People must be looking at something else to me on this, how will cold air flood south with heights like that over Europe? Answers on a postcard please, I guess it depends if you want to see falling flakes or proper cold.

Whilst that high is in situ I really struggle to see how anyone gets excited, even for transient events, which doesn’t interest me massively There is a certain amount of IMBY’ism on here this morning which is to be expected, but I’m not sure how anyone can look at a chart with a euro high that big and feel optimism, we’ve seen so many times the heights to our south are the #1 winter killer and there won’t be any notable proper cold whilst that is in place. The Madrid ens, if anything are trending the wrong way again.

192 will be interesting, let’s see what happens to the pressure to our south The winter storms in the US are normally well predicted by the models and that storm is what is causing that big ridge+WAA

Look at the heights to our south, for me it’s near impossible this system can trend much further south. Midlands and the north could well get a nice Christmas present tho

Look at that for a winter storm in the US, mental.

Again, this is where location matters. For the south this chart is nearly 24 hours under a slow moving band of quite heavy rain.

Its not despondency it’s just realism and saying what we see, a beefed up Iberian high and a meandering low to our west, it means for us southern folk for at least tbe next 8-10 days there isn’t anything cold, even the ensembles are bleak really. Whereas if we look at further north I can see room for optimism amongst these ensembles, so naturally there will be a fair bit of IMBY’ism on this thread, which annoys a few but IMO is totally understandable

Simply put, the northern half of the UK get a lot more snow generally than the southern half, that’s not controversial to say, it’s just true. A true N/S split is normally when we have polar air incursions from the north battling against a low moving in from the Atlantic, meaning the northern side of the low often get snow, normally transient, whilst the southern side often get rain or are under HP influence. In one of the runs last night we saw 13c on the south coast, and blizzards in Scotland.

For the south it’s very difficult to see any proper cold, and for me increasingly so for the north, but I guess that depends what you define as proper cold, the beefy euro high will put pay to any true cold air. The traditional N/S split is what I’d expect, transient periods of snow/rain in the north, it’s typical winter pattern with a totally untypical NH pattern which is the frustrating thing. The Madrid pressure ensembles so show some hope of pressure lowering in that area, but not within the next 10 days or so, and we all know how stubborn that feature is, particularly with a meandering ponderous low to our west.

It’s because once in a blue moon an arctic high can deliver for us, that being said I’m struggling to remember the last time it did, we’ve seen small areas of HP in the arctic fairly commonly in recent years. The problem commonly with them is you get small pieces of vortex scattered around, which can be more irritating than one giant dominatrix vortex.

Will this system upstream be friend or foe, could get some serious WAA being pumped up by this beast, or it could fire up the jet. 9/10 will be interesting.

Look at that system in the states, brutal winter conditions there if that comes off, unfortunately this kind of thing could fire the jet up, hard to see a system that strong not barrelling through a weak ridge

Shame about that perpetual low to our west pumping up that hideous slug to our south.

With that monster Iberian high even if we get the mother of all WAA pumping, I can’t see it being fruitful, the euro slug is a synoptic git

Siberian express… for the middle of the Atlantic

Very consistent GFS to its 6z run, I think some of you will drive yourself doolally flicking between runs at day 4 Good consistency from the GFS, shame it’s only finds consistency when it’s consistently you know what

Those ensembles have got significantly worse for cold since yesterday though unfortunately, we are back to chasing ensembles in the day 7+ period which to be fair is standard winter stuff on here The arctic high is doing us no favours really, ironic because normally it’s a raging PV over the pole at this time of year giving us no chance. I always use the Madrid ensembles as a guide to pressure to our south, and they remain steadfast, unfortunately.

Dreadful models tonight, unfortunately things have definitely taken a turn away from cold, but things can always turn back. All is not lost and winter is still yet young