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Weathizard

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  1. Weathizard
    As the excitement settles down, worth remembering charts like that aren’t that uncommon at day 8+ range, we’ve seen many many times in the past and they always seem to be just out of touching distance. I'm sceptical about that ECM run as it’s out of kilter with its longer range ensembles from the 12z suite yesterday and this mornings 0z GEFS suite. Also, ALL ABOARD the BLIZZARD bus. 🌨
  2. Weathizard
    The low is looking a lot more organised and a bit further north than the 6z, can’t see this ending well
  3. Weathizard
    Surely the model is run on what information it has at the start point and that point only? What extra input data could it have pre/after day 8? Or do you mean predicted data? (Ie’ Strat conditons, SST etc) I always thought weather models predict the weather in 10 days based on the current start point and factor in all data throughout, it’s hurting my head now I think about it.
  4. Weathizard
    That’s because our predominant source of weather is and always will be from the SW, you can understand models being programmed that way.
  5. Weathizard
    Happy Sunday morning from the Azores high
  6. Weathizard
    How did I know you’d find something downstream Nick Don’t worry about the stream, it will be frozen soon anyway
  7. Weathizard
    -16 nearby, massive low interacting with very cold air… This is the kind of chart which could see historic snowfall follow in the days after this. Remember though…. It’s day 8+
  8. Weathizard
    Yikes….
  9. Weathizard
    GFS AND ECM at day 7… fairly solid agreement overall
  10. Weathizard
    Control run shows something more similar to what I would expect with that low stalling and slowly filling/dispersing, that’s where things get really complicated… Have a feeling the next week or so of model watching could be get the popcorn out material.
  11. Weathizard
    I think it’s safe to say that Atlantic system is going to be the celebrity of the next week, unfortunately a lot of cold rain if the GFS/ICON is correct, but take with a pinch of salt at this range.
  12. Weathizard
    Edvard Munch would be proud! GFS deepening the tropical system the same way the ICON did, let’s see what progress it makes, this is a very strong system.
  13. Weathizard
    Look at the track of the low between day 5-8 and the jet, that low isn’t bringing anything but rain, if it stays on the track it is projected to, which is obviously highly unlikely as the ICON is a relatively poor model, but this low blowing up is becoming a trend, and it’s not entirely surprising given the temperature differential in the Atlantic.
  14. Weathizard
    It’s a very messy looking chart and that low will move up from the south west between day 8-10
  15. Weathizard
    Icon has always been a terrible model anyway That blown up low does seem to be becoming a trend now, unfortunately it has all got a bit messy, as usual when a cold spell approaches
  16. Weathizard
    A GFS classic that one, a nice 955mb dartboard low barrelling across the Atlantic A possibility of course but way out of kilter with anything we’ve seen in the runs recently. Worth noting it’s always a danger with low 850’s plunging into the Atlantic
  17. Weathizard
    I’m not sure there was ever a screaming convective Easterly on the agenda though, normally an Easterly is a result of a trough dropping south as we are seeing. I think at this point Northerly into into some kind of Easterly wind would seem the form horse, but as always, there’s still many stumbling blocks, a cold trough dropping over us as a starting point will be fine by me, and I say that as the southernest of southerners
  18. Weathizard
    That low that initially undercuts our blocking, looks like becoming a very prominent feature between day 8-10, can’t see it going anywhere other than well south of the UK, experience tells you even if the GFS takes it further north in low res that this will go much south with the Jet
  19. Weathizard
    Don’t worry about snow exactitees (don’t say that word out loud ) at this point, it’s a very easy thing this far out to assume the angle won’t be ideal etc but the phrase ‘get the cold in’ springs to mind, we are a small island surrounded by warm(ish) waters, snow chances will be widespread in this set up.
  20. Weathizard
    Blimey, if Carlsberg did outliers…. They’d probably taste like dishwater.
  21. Weathizard
    Much much better from the 18z here… *MUST NOT GET EXCITED*
  22. Weathizard
    Trigger feature around Norway looks cleaner at day 5
  23. Weathizard
    0z 6z
  24. Weathizard
    If you’re looking at this chart without going any further you’d say yes please! Not too fussed after this, there will be large variance, let’s get to this as a starting point
  25. Weathizard
    A 258 mean chart…. Come on, Feb. Means for this time are always messy and fraught with danger because of the tendency of all the models to over power the Atlantic in low res. Although, I agree that there is a slight shift earlier in the mean towards a west based NAO, nothing major at this point though.
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