Weathizard

That arctic high is a real beast, highly unusual to see an area of high pressure that powerful at this time of the year.

Or the GFS was the rogue run as nothing has been showing even like it’s 12z in the ensembles of previous runs. ’one for the bin’ should be a banned term really, how can it be for the bin unless it’s turned the weather into reverse or something.

West based -NAO looks the form horse to me, it’s very clear run on run that despite all the small variances we still end up in a similar position, lots of energy in the eastern Atlantic blocks any height rises in a position that could advect proper cold southwards. Could be good for the Scottish mountains.

Madrid ENS confirm this issue, if anything over the last day these Iberian heights have just got stronger. I just hate heights to our south, one of the most annoying winter features

Not much sign of an abatement of those Iberian heights in the ensembles…

Quite an amusing 48 hour capitulation between day 7-9, obliterated vortex, massive arctic high and you guessed it…. S’westerlies for the UK

From this position it’s hard to see us not getting some kind of wedge to our NW, whether or that it will be enough to advect cold our way I don’t know. The heights to our south are a thorn in my side, yes the models seem to show they will be short lived but seen that enough times before to know it’s not always as easy to shift them The pressure ensembles from Madrid highlight my concern re: heights to our south

Quite a pronounced mini ridge compared to the 6z

The high pressure to the south is just a result of that low pumping it up, as usual in a mobile Atlantic pattern, I’m not seeing a raging Atlantic yet in the models which is cause for hope, even on the EC/GFS the hemispheric pattern is a quite unusual. Im still not convinced of such a dramatic breakdown, but we shall see. More runs needed, as usual.

interesting differences at just day 5, a few more adjustments like that…

Does the drama ever stop? I feel like nothing is ever resolved when it comes to winter model watching. More runs needed

Icon ends at the key moment but looks a lot better, much more forcing on that low, feel like from this position we almost want the low to move east and bring in a brisk NE

Icon ends at the key moment but looks a lot better, much more forcing on that low, feel like from this position we almost want the low to move east and bring in a brisk NE

Depends on the type of frontal snowfall, most historic snowfalls are from Atlantic influenced systems Theres a few different types of frontal events: Frontal events that move east and NE/E winds follow in behind, one where a system moves up from the SW into cold air and displaces the cold totally but gives a few hours of transient snow, and then there’s the stalling low running into cold air and failing, once again though this can result in a dumping followed by a rapid drop in temps. Unless you like cold and dry, a true snowy easterly normally starts with some kind of Atlantic influence. Or the usual happens and the ‘channel low’ eventually tracks somewhere into the bay of biscay

My money is on ‘more runs needed’ being quoted many times in the next 2 hours

Yet ANOTHER crucial ECM run coming up, Groundhog Day…

Not sure that’s as good as this morning run though, it’s still decent but from that point I can only see a lot of the country pulling in milder uppers. HOWEVER, longer term… this chart has Easterly/NE written all over it, so could be a little pain for long term gain.

GFS ensembles this morning still very convincing in what they think is going to happen, very marked end to the cold spell… Egg on face if it’s wrong, normally I have no doubt that the worst outcome possible is normally the most likely in the UK but in this instance I think that the GFS has got this wrong.

Isn’t that the UKM120 chart just in fax form? Its whether there is enough forcing on that low to stop it and send some energy underneath, that low looks pretty strong

GFS going for a nice southerly airflow There was definitely a nice shift in that run to a more ECM like solution, small steps. Knowing the world of model watching, the GFS 12z will jump on board on produce a stonker, then the ECM will jump overboard and bring in a Saharan plume or something, it’s always the way.

The GFS and ensembles are all ran from a similar start data point with slight variables so if the GFS has got the development of the tropical system wrong early, it’s likely the whole suite is about as useful as a chocolate teapot. Thats not to say it is wrong 100% as the law of the sod means the model with the worst outcome often proves right

We’ve seen the GFS(more so than others) countless times struggle with Atlantic energy against a firm northern block, the GFS ensembles are pretty unanimous when it comes to the period after the 12/13th with a clear breakdown of cold, so if the GFS has got this wrong it’s going to be a spectacular failure, you have to give it that.

Absolute stonker incoming here, low is disrupting underneath

Is it possible to dislike a post?