ITSY

The Op is not alone in the short ens - middle of the pack. Longer range is where xmas day actually comes into it.

In all seriousness, the GEFS is showing the shift at soon as T+150. See the 06Z: And now on the 12Z, watch how the high has been shunted north west and the atlantic into more of an undercutting phase to the west of Ireland, helping to draw the continental feed further SW. Could still swing the other way... What a said a few days ago remains. I want to see the below before getting too overly confident 1. Inter-model consistency 2. Inter-run consistency 3. UKMO support from Exeter What we *may* now be seeing is (1) together with (3) - I've seen a few UKMO pros on twitter tweeting about the mixing of airmasses over xmas today. Small signs...

Where's Ian Brown when you need him

I'll be back this evening but my rule of thumb for actually attaining cold: 1. Inter-model consistency 2. Inter-run consistency 3. Exeter (MetOffice) support As good as the background signals are, we don't currently have any of these for severe xmas cold/snow. So until we do (either for then or the NY), let's just enjoy what the models spin out.

Who knows where this will go but better Pacific forcing on this run - a stronger ridge over Alaska will help to displace the PV over the pole and Greenland. That allows slightly stronger heights to build north of Iceland. But the high in our back yard looks a bit flabby and sinky to me. Let's see where it goes with the GEFS.

The long-term J-F-M post from Catacol a few pages back is really poor news from a snow-hunting perspective. Every single model jars heavily with the other day's EC46, including the ECMWF. We've seen many examples in recent years of a negative AO failing to turnover a positive NAO. It seems we might be about to witness a few weeks of things the other way around.

The GEFS are actually an improvement on the 06z. More WAA into the N Atlantic with a tilt towards scandi by the middle portion of Low Res: 06Z 12z There's a lot of ingredients in our favour here over the medium term: e-QBO, e-based La Nina, MJO Phase 7/8 (all seasonal indicators) + strat/trop decoupling + Pacific forcing (powerful jet), a pre-existing MLB over or near the British Isles and a rapidly cooling continent. Much can go wrong - and if it can go wrong then it will in our part of the world - but it's really a question of run-to-run variability at the moment while we await to see the possible benefits of those broader setups. The next two weeks of model watching will be extremely interesting. My point really is: don't take every frame (esp every frame from a single det or control) as the be all and end all. Look for patterns over the northern pacific (strong jet) >> the north atlantic (vacating PV) >> scandinavia (lowering heights) >> and the central Med (low pressure). That's all we're after at this point. Everything else is 10+ days away at a bear minimum. Oh and I didn't mention low solar activity, extensive Eurasian snow cover and the fact I saw a swan flying West the other week

Abstract percentages aside for second, as helpful as they are, the mean has inched eastward in the 06z against the 00z but it's all very similar really. 00Z 216 06Z 204

First post in a long time but the 06Z GEFS really caught me eye. The long range ens graphs should be very interesting indeed - a massive jump to colder outcomes by Christmas Day itself with an assortment of northerlies, easterlies, greenies and scandi blocks. It's all just trendlines at this point though. The first job is to get the UK high in place. We should worry about where it goes after that. So without pre-empting what happens over the Pacific or elsewhere in the coming weeks, take everything beyond the next week with a pinch of salt. Hopefully it comes good for us - the 06z is certainly an eyebrow raiser! Cambridge: Newcastle Holland

Very envious and pleased for everyone who got snow. In Cambridge we scrapped 1cm on the grass over 4 days of light snowfall. This rounded off the 1cm we got from the January 'near-miss' and the 2cms of slush we got in early December. I thought we couldn't do worse than the 3cms that fell in the 2018 BFTE but records are there to be broken! In all seriousness, this winter has consolidated my view that the corridor stretching across South Cambs, Beds, North Herts, Bucks is probably the hardest UK place to get snowfall away perhaps from the extreme SW and southern coastal cities of Southampton or Portsmouth. I dare say to the wrath of everyone in here that slow-moving topplers suit us better! As evidence I offer you, in order, space pics of UK snow in Jan 2010, Dec 2010, Feb 2018 and Feb 2021. Sympathy appreciated By and large though this has been the coldest winter in a decade and given over 7 days of falling snow IMBY so I'd have bitten your hand off for that at the start. You'll also be relieved to know that since my support bubble is in North London, I ventured down there for a couple of days and managed to throw some snowballs at the GF. I got my snow fix in the end - 4-5cms in the Capital was enough, just!

One simple photo for the losers of this event. This is why straight Easterly/NEly (and for that matter SEly) streamers almost never deliver deep snow for Cambridge (it's currently clear blue skies). There's an area off Norfolk/Suffolk, presumably the equivalent of the 'headland of East Anglia', that very rarely develops shower activity. When it does it usually gives a good cm over Norwich before evaporating around Thetford forest. This was also the case in the 2018 BFTE (albeit with a similar problem angled from around Suffolk) and the 2013 BFTE too. In a nutshell, we're just too far inland. For us, as already discussed, we need a NNE for showers off the Wash area (Jan 03/Dec 09) or frontal movement up from the South (Feb 09) or down from the NW (March 13). Otherwise it should be a matter of expecting extremely little in these setups - with, no doubt, the occasional surprise. 3rd time unlucky has hammered this home for me!

Went to bed and the streamers were to our north. Nothing put down overnight and now they’re to our south. Had enough with this spell. Another day of watching 1cm melt slowly.

Another garbage night. Snow showers always fizzle out after thetford. I’ve never seen it snow So lightly for so long whilst accumulating To nothing! Not sure what torment is worse - snow in cambridge or arsenal on a weekend!

Indeed. The heaviest single snowfall I experienced was a NNE which developed a Southerly facing Wash streamer in December 2009. That gave 4-6 inches of widespread snow in Cambridge and the surroundings over 4-6hours

Come on wind, just swing round to an Easterly already. It's like drawing blood out of a stone this! All I have to show from it is neck ache from looking out the blasted window Maybe next time!

Well another update from me. Fine snow probably for 12 hours or so here but less than a cm still. It's a matter of intensity here as in the rare heavier bursts this PM it has started to settle, only for the skies to lift and disappear again. The last chance for inland areas of our region is probably from now until tomorrow late morning. Annoying but on the flip side, plenty could still happen and we've had 5 (probably 6 by tomorrow) days of falling snow here this winter. Add whatever is to come in the rest of Feb and it's been unquestionably noticeable for cold, even if not for snow accumulation yet...

Snizzle all morning, just like overnight and yesterday. An icy cm on the grass and some damp pavements to show for it! Still awaiting a heavier burst and hoping for a streamer

I've refrained myself but God this is frustrating. Missed everything all day bar the odd graupal shower, finally landed a streamer but it vanished into thin air within an hour or two, leaving less than a cm. Same close but no cigar show as late Jan, early Jan and early Dec. Grrrgh! Anyway rant over and hope again for tonight/tomorrow

Borderline sunny in Cambridge! Plenty of blue skies above my back yard. Streamers this pm, eve and overnight the best chance for our area I think!

Good god it’s close! Come to Cambridge and surprise us!

Anyone have a screenshot or link to the private ECM 06z precip/snowfall chart for the wider country on Sunday/Monday? Keen to see if it's moved or stayed with its 00z, esp given short-term Met alignment with Euro4...yesterday's was pretty sensational

Was just going to say that! Some places could have a historic snowfall if this comes off (not me I dare add!)

This is a really IMBY question so apologies @Nick F but what's the chances for the Cambridge crew in your view? I can't see more than a dusting myself but I bow to those with professional experience !

Not sure about the depths further west but this is a very encouraging video. It shows plenty of action for those in the southern half of the Cambs and even Herts too, including for Cambridge itself. Lots still to be determined. I get the feeling we'll miss out still just based on where the models are aligning around Suffolk and Essex but it won't take much in the tweaks to bring more of us into play...

As I feared several days ago, expecting nothing in cambridge now but will keep an eye on the radar just in case. Suffolk and Norfolk and Essex look absolutely sweet though!