ITSY

It's quite possible. The secondary low still wants to bring milder uppers into southern england but the initial movement of cold air south is much more extensive by +102

I mean, it's not great so far is it. Lets see where we are at +144 but at +78 everything is shunted even further North than the 00z. Icon seems a half way house in the short term, although it's apples and oranges compared to what the GFS is sniffing out. Our window of interest for the South is from Sunday onwards though so time for this to go either way yet...

Negative IMBY comment: So near yet so far. Late December, early and late January (and possibly - based on GFS 06Z alone - early February), were all the wrong side of marginal for me, resulting in tons of rain when just a few tweaks here and there and we'd have been buried multiple times. This resulted in missed frontal events, convective events and showery activity. It's brought home how difficult it is to snow properly here in Cambridge - often slightly too far inland to benefit from North Sea convection, too far East to really benefit from frontal systems and usually too far south to catch Northerly showers. A tight spot. Positive IMBY comment: We've seen snow falling and settling 3 times, albeit to a combined maximum of a miserable 2-3cms. That in itself is more noteworthy than almost any winter since 2012/13 with the exception of the 2018 BFTE which gave 4cms here. More could be to come. Positive non IMBY comment: We've seen again that the overarching synoptics, even in this age of accelerated global warming, can be incredibly conducive to widespread snow in the UK with some amazing falls in the North of the country. On top of 2009, 2010, 2013 and 2018 that's positive to see and encouraging as we go into solar minimum territory and (hopefully) eQBO etc. We're running at an average December and a below average January. That is a rarity. In a nutshell, deeply frustrating for me and many others in the south so far but that compares with an encouraging picture overall and a high quality return for the North. Latitude and Altitude have won the day so far this winter. EDIT: Writing this I also realise that probably about 75% of the (local) UK snow I've seen in my lifetime was recorded between Feb 2009 and March 2013. Basically 4 out of 29 years (Feb 09, Dec 09, Jan 10, Dec 10, Jan 13 and March 13 to be precise). It tells you something about how spoilt we were then and how expectations have been somewhat warped!

Let's hope this is a blip. Because the control looks set to follow suit: 00z: Clean Easterly entry... 06Z: flabbier entry, Northern areas only, milder for the south Eyes on Ensembles and then the 12z's. Reassess this evening...

06z GFS is a variation on a theme but a variant those of us in the SE Quadrant do not want to verify. The Easterly persists but, just as in December, draws in milder uppers for the first several frames which prevents the big Feb 09-esque snow event. It's a sort of ECM-GFS blend, with the Easterly tracking further North across the British isles leaving Scotland and NE England absolutely buried (what a winter it's been for them). There are signs though of an Atlantic undercut, a Greenland block and frigid temps over Scandi, so you only need minor changes for it to turn insane over later frames. That being said, this definitely counts as a wobble (in my opinion) from a selfish/IMBY SE perspective!

For something still 7 days away, that's about as bullish a forecast for prolonged Easterly-driven cold as I've ever seen. That doesn't mean anything is nailed of course but I'm always of the view that until Exeter jump aboard, potential Easterlies are more hope than anything. To have them on-side is a real confidence booster going forward...

A real NIMBY post and I'll be enthusiastic again tomorrow, but what a let down in Cambridge. Didn't snow all day when the radar said it was, now the radar says nothing and it's moderately raining. 5 miles west of Cambridge and there's 2-3inches! Not the first time that's happened - it was the same in one of the Feb 2009 falls if I recall...we were sent home from our city school in the rain and by the time the bus reached the villages it was 3 inches thick. I benefited that time - I've tasted my own medicine and it is bitter!

We must be very close, I'm pretty much there too. Can vouch there is nothing coming out of the sky - or as good as nothing! Quite incredible that the front somehow went from south to north, west to east, and seems to have missed us! Time left to correct things - and it is in fact very rare in my experience to see a pivoting front this far east at all - but slightly annoying all the same. At least we had some fun falls yesterday!

Best of the winter in Cambridge - it lasted only 20 minutes - but left 1-2cms on some surfaces. Really tanked it down for a short while there. Melting now but maybe a suprise tomorrow and then eyes out for Feb. If it snows next month then it would have done in every winter month here, albeit leaving a combined 3cms so far

Rain in Cambridge from start to finish. As on Thursday. Roll on the next chance

Well I didn’t expect tomorrow would come to anything so the upgrades of the last couple of days are a real pleasant surprise. Like others in here, I had an inch or so in Cambridge from the 2018 BFTE (still notable for the sheer cold) and a slushy cm or two in early December last year. Other than that my last significant snowfall was March 2013 - 20cms in my back garden and a level 12cms on the car. I don’t expect anything more than a few transient cms for my location tomorrow morning (possibly a tad too west for the juicer potential) but even that would be noteworthy after recent times! Will be twitching those curtains in the morning to see what comes. Otherwise, there’s always the next cold spell. Good luck guys!

Mean at 216. West based bla bla, uppers etc etc, low res we know we know... I’d take it!

GEFS suite picking up on something interesting. Plenty of HLBs knocking around and the gradual displacement of real cold to Siberia and towards Northern Europe, Scandi and Eastern Europe.

Me too. Not posted in a while as been swamped with work but been paying close attention. Frustrating to lose the medium term window for deep cold but we don't need to cast our eyes much beyond 10 days out to see the real potential that's there. GFSP shows such a way, and typifies the response we'd hope for after a SSW. If youre not one of the lucky ones this week - and there will be some - then don't despair...watch for trends over the coming week.

Control running with the upgrades and subtle changes above svalbard and iceland...look N/NE/E?

Potential from now till the far reaches of this run, madness! Incoming

Also about a third of the GEFS go for splits in the SPV not displacements, including op and control (I think, may be over tired!). Another fine note on which to end the day!

and may I just add what a marvellous and educational post that was from @snowking. Bravo

Indeed! And over Kent for those poor brexit lorry parks

Yes I saw that too "heavy rain at times but because it gets quite cold...things could get interesting". Anyway that would pretty much tally with everything we've all said on here and what the models are showing - the potential is there after xmas for some quite unusual weather

Less marginal indeed. No point going to snow levels yet - I'm at 20ASL and had 2cms of slushy snow in early December with -2uppers. The lower they are the easier snow is to achieve but at this point it's too early to say what will fall where. The GFS 12z showed 4inches in Kings Lynn at one point!

Without meaning to skirt over the obvious potential 120-192, almost all of the GEFS give serious weight to an FI reload of sorts, particularly in the North Atlantic. This is the mean at +240 - up she goes again...

It's apples and oranges I know and I'm not comparing the substance here (there is no comparison), but I've not seen such persistent and tightly packed cold agreement since Dec 2010. It's startling really and quite refreshing!

Interestingly the control is also toying with a follow-on easterly. This is essentially interest part 3 of 4: - Xmas eve/day (rogue showers on initial northerly) - Initial Greenland ridge/northerly (uppers good side of marginal but need watching nearer the time, not now) - Follow-on something? Northerly/Easterly, sliders etc (eg. today's GFS op and control) - SSW (1st-2nd week of Jan) Bit of a rare list, that...anyway control here:

More excellent runs the morning. My only concern, mentioned by others, is how Far East the pattern goes and whether we wind up stuck under the high ourselves. I doubt it as it’s been fed by waves off the American coast by that’s clearly what the Meto have thought for some time reading their longer term outlooks. I would like to see that changed soon. One of those rare occasions where the cross model consensus is so overwhelming I think it will but just a nerve I have!