ITSY

I've been warning of this for a while but I'm nervous now. I think the bulk of our region will miss out over the weekend with this afternoons updates, apart from the extreme east. Just a hunch before I'm asked why! inch by inch model movements and experience combining. Let's see if the 18z keeps the general eastern movement or echoes the GFS...

Apologies, you're right. I've been guilty of IMBY-ism here. GEM is a no to widespread inland snow as I described this morning (for Cambs, Beds, Herts, Lincs, Leicestershire etc). That's at odds with ECM, GFS, GFSP but in line with ARPEGE and similar-ish to ICON which has admittedly edged much closer towards the more widespread group this afternoon, which is welcome news. Only pointing this out as it still needs ironing out. GEFS mean looks v good though and quite different to the GEM Op:

Guys come on! Apart from the extreme south and south east (literally coastal communities), this is looking great for swathes of us. The real concern here shouldn't be uppers it should be whether the precipitation makes it inland. GEM Op says no. Icon says 50/50 (for suffolk/norfolk only). GFS and GFSP say yes. ECM06z said yes. UKMO again I'm not sure. There's much to be ironed out but the extent of the cold really isn't one I don't think!

speak for yourself!

A slight upgrade for inland areas against the 00z run again, which is a relief. Sunday afternoon 00z: Sunday afternoon 06z: This is what the big globals have been showing and is what we want for more widespread action on Sunday. Seeing it on a shorter-ranger is very encouraging...

marginal gains for inland eastern areas on the icon, albeit with questionable uppers 00z: 06Z:

Just to build on that. There are a few models still flirting with a much less profound snowfall for inland areas of Eastern England *away from Norfolk/Suffolk coast* on Sunday/Monday. ICON, Arpege to name two - and UKMO looks unclear to my eye. But with majority backing, I'd continue to use the big globals until Friday evening when hopefully the HRES models will start to run with the better option for many...With the ECM 06z copying the GFSP and others I'm cautiously enthused...

We're venturing into different threads but that's because she used the 00z ECMWF, which the BBC almost always use. It's a delayed loop. Come 17.00 tonight it might reflect an updated run such as the the ECMWF 06z (which isn't publicly available in full) but which produced the run discussed above. It is much more in line with GFS, GFSP, GEM and others (though that doesn't make it a guarantee, as I've pointed out on here a lot)! Toes crossed....

Goodness me I hope this is right. I'm like a child with giddy excitement looking at that chart! With the GFS, GFSP and UKMO all going for variations on a theme, this is almost too good to believe for my own backyard. Plenty of interest for all in the entire eastern half of the country though with an outcome like that...

I hope so. Have to return to work matters now but of the GEFS, 12 out of 20 (+ the op and control) I've looked at so far take Sunday's snow significantly inland towards Bedfordshire and spread it northwards as far as the East Midlands. Probably 5 or 6 follow the ICON and keep things a largely (not entirely) Norfolk/Suffolk affair. So I agree...for now (experience makes one a cynic I think)! Edit: it's about a 60/40 split across the GEFS of westward and northward progress, which brings more people on here into play, not counting the op and control. Either way it looks like being quite an event for favoured East Anglian spots!

Agreed. Particularly rural Norfolk and Suffolk - looks like a really amazing setup there. But these two models show a reasonable difference in terms of depth and the westward/northward scope of the snow. I keep saying this not to cast a downer but just to keep marginal folks like me grounded!

It’s subtle changes with big impacts. Leicestershire, Lincolnshire, Cambridgeshire, Bedfordshire etc would all get a a dusting from the icon. Whereas on the 06z GFS many of them have 10-15cms by Monday with snowfall from +66 to *checks notes* +108! See below. Way too early to be bogged down in details but needs watching for some of us - for others, like those in southern Norfolk or Suffolk, it looks tidy all round!

It does indeed! It reinvigorates the front and keeps it stalled over all the east of england, with snow falling from +66 to +90 hours. Just like the 00z! Widespread 10-15cms in that event...

It pushes the showery activity north throughout Saturday but keeps the frontal system on Sunday for coastal counties only, pushing the snow further south and east towards Suffolk only for significant falls (over a few cams). One to watch as from an imby POV the 00z icon was much better for the weekend. Let’s see what gfs brings - looks good for the moment, and very different too!

A word of caution - ICON moves Sunday much further south and east. ECM was leaning to this, UKMO seemed half way to GFS. One to watch....

With you here 80s. But the ops this morning sure gave us a welcome wake up a call! Praying they’re right, esp for Sunday as I’m always most interested in the next event...

Just a flag - and apologies if recent posts have come across negative because these synoptics are legitimately brilliant for the majority of us - but there seems to be a not insignificant chance of some quite heavy rainfall across the South in advance of any potential snow on Sunday/Monday and thereafter. Initially that could be a real pain for those of us in marginal circs...

Not light years away in terms of south/central impact from the current BEEB graphics or the midnight GFSP which I've only just seen.

No chance later on (the time you're referencing) but there is a small chance of this for Sunday/Monday if the low touches the SE Quadrant, at least according to the GFS (which does, thankfully, appear to be the least reliable at the moment). One to watch but it is only the starting gun so to speak...

Flaming heck. Like you Frosty I'm not talking from a Cambridge POV here (I'm doubtful how well we'll do in our back yard) but from a hemispheric and national perspective, wowza. What a setup!

Just a hunch but I feel us in Cambridge will miss out again, this time because we're too far West to benefit from Sunday's low (necessary in order to bring in colder uppers) and not coastal enough to benefit from showers thereafter. Hopefully I'm wrong!

Wrong thread I know but the Meto are bullish in their PR today and in the 16:00 update. Easterlies, Snowfalls and Wintry Showers galore starting this weekend and continuing into mid-month. It's clear the professionals back the GEM, UKMO and ECMWF (00z) solution. The GFS is at odds with those models and the professional forecast so if the American model (GFS) proves itself correct for the South, it will be a real coup for the model even if a real let down to us southerners. It's a question of waiting and seeing I fear for at least another 48hours...

So it's GFS + GEFS against UKMO + GEM for now, with ECM still to come out. ICON is a halfway house between both camps. So we're no clearer if you're in the South. Await the parallel, await the ECMWF. Then look at what the pros say. Then make a guess. It's just weather guys.

It's incredibly similar to UKMO and ECM in terms of placement of the block. GFS Op has a different solution...

I have to go work now but one closing point - this run has a small advantage over the 00z and is a small improvement. The low travels around Southern England, into the North Sea rather than into central/SE England. This could enable the low to occlude with much colder uppers flowing into the north sea off scandi. It might mean we in the south miss the rain in the low's initial drive northwards but catch some snow in it's pivot south. Something to watch out for...