Tim A
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joggs Think there is a good chance of a temporary covering in the morning Pennine areas and higher ground 150m plus, maybe lower levels in places too. Will depend on how heavy and organised the band is and if it moves through early (E.g GFS) when it's colder or later (e.g as per UKMO HD) when the daylight has warmed things slightly. No Met Office warning yet, but then again , doesn't look anything more than a CM or two though so it won't cause mass distruption, they might be wise to wait until tomorrow when things are a bit clearer.
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Good to see an amber, whether inside or outside I don't think it makes that much difference (although elevation will), on the day the actual area with amber impacts will probably be slightly different anyway. Amber warning mentions disruption to air travel, but there are no airports in the area. Go on Met Office extend it 5 miles NE to include an airport.
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Think there has been too much hype of southern corrections and particular focus on lesser models that don't model the effect of the Pennines. Yes the Midlands might get some heavier stuff initially but the front should enhance against the hills like the UKV which is known to underestimate and show things too patchy anyway. Nmm looks good too and whatever the Met Office use in their app and forecasts.
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Empire Of Snow Agree , there could be some big falls if everything aligns. We have an easterly wind which will enhance precipitation against the Eastern Pennines. Just need the front in the right place and it could be a classic, the finer details to nail down, but feel we have a bit of wriggle room being in a favourable upslope location to at least see some lying snow. Probably drizzling and 3c in the Vale of York as is normal in these situations.
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Dry here and -1.5c. Seems to be some snow around Wetherby down to Selby unless it is a radar anomaly. Hard to know where that precip will ultimately end up but we are going to have to content with milder air and positive dewpoints later, much of the snow in the NW will likely be washed away at low levels unless areas are lucky enough to be under very heavy precipitation.
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Not really very hopefully for Tuesday, either, yet to see a recent model run that shows snowfall over us or most of the region. Only hope is models are underestimating like the weekend of the 26th Nov 21 (Storm Arwen) that was unexpected from the NW. But that is hopecasting really. Some models such as UKMO HD show heavy snow NW Dales but not really further SE. Met office text forecasts are lazy so whilst they say chance of disruptive snow , they say they same thing for NW England, Yorks and NE England, they are often way off the mark so wouldn't rely on them.
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Northwest Weather Discussion
Tim A replied to damianslaw's topic in Northwest Community Group's Northwest Weather Discussion
Hi Kasim, are you not worried about marginality for low levels? To me it looks like the freezing level is about 200m and temps of 1-3c at sea level , of course it can come down in heavy precipitation but may struggle to settle in places and start melting as soon as it turns light , perhaps why Merseyside isn't in warning area. -
Stopped now and skies cleared. Melted from the pavements and roads as they are warm from the sunshine but seems to be freezing on all other surfaces, nothing dripping from the trees. 0.0c Just under a cm on grass and raised surfaces. Taken all winter to get a snow event and then we get 2 small ones and one big un in the space of a week.