Tim A

-1.2c with light snow. 2cm on surfaces apart from roads and pavements . Road clear with some icy patches and pavements now has a thin film of snow. Here is hoping for an epic 24 hours.

Pavements and roads seem to have a lot of heat at this time of year. Temp is -1c at LBA and -0.6c here, we have a nice covering on grass/trees/roofs, everything basically apart from the roads and pavements despite the sub-zero temps.

Temp -0.4c and snowing lightly , getting a bit heavier. Has started settled on the cars, grass and roofs, but not pavements or roads. Most snow we have had all winter.

I think some patience will be required tomorrow. Will be some moans from the usual people about lack of snow during the day but the evening may be when it gets really going away from high ground. Haven't reviewed the models in detail but from what I have seen few imply widespread snow cover before the evening. Lots of uncertainty though still , who knows how heavy the precipitation will be/ will there be a base early on before the middle of the day, those factors will determine whether it will settle in the March daylight.

Yep the Met Office automated whilst eventually showing heavy snow tomorrow evening shows lots of light snow at first at 2/3c. If we only get light snow during the day it isn't going to be enough to bring the temp down in the March daylight . Less of a risk of the system heading too far South this morning but doesn't seem the beast it was once looking like (at least Thursday day), hoping for upgrades to precip intensity today. GFS probably the pick of the bunch this morning at 20cm and and NMM at 15cm with snow piling up during Thursday. UKMO more Thursday night and high ground really crucial.

Thanks, never really clicked on that option before, fascinating. The Leeds one which is also mad. York can be a desert in these situations, too low down and no orographic enhancement.

Good summary. You only have to take one look at the GFS and ECM Ensembles to see the massive uncertainty. Both ops go with the colder (dryer/more south low) scenerio. But looking through each GFS ensembles many have the snow much further North (and quite a few a bit too far North). So some more comfort there. Met Office App has some subtle changes from earlier in the day but still shows heavy snow here from 15.00 Thursday to 15.00 Friday now rather than from 9am to 9am. Still shows sleet for Leicester/Birmingham etc though so no massive changes there yet. Also don't really know how this version of the Icon 12Z is out but it shows the snow line further north than the ECM or GFS at same time. https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icond2/runs/2023030718/icond2-1-48-0.png?07-20 But i have to admit i am worried, tense times.

My slight worry is that it goes a bit too far South now for us to be in the optimum position, slight trend amongst the models for that to happen this afternoon at least on Thursday. Don't really want it to go any further South or have to wait until Friday morning for the heavy stuff (as that is further into the future = more uncertainty).

I also think it looks great personally. A plastering for our region seems bang in the middle of the options the models (and ensembles) show . The worse case would be slipping south and missing out, I would prefer a snow to rain event to that. It is still a possibility but hopefully only an outside chance. Nervous times. Met Office app for here shows snow Thursday Am into Friday morning and then sleet and a slow thaw before refreeze Fri night, would bite your hand off for that.

ECM 0z had the snow turning to rain for us whereas as above the 12z has the low further South and doesn't. So an upgrade if you take ECM in isolation. Still overall unresolved but hopefully ECM 12z is nearer to the mark. I want to see some runs showing it too far North and some too far South as hopefully the average will be a direct hit.

There has always been massive uncertainty about Thursday and Friday. Yes there have been the odd run that shows us in the sweet spot (So does 12Z Arpege and GEM) but loads have pushed the mild air through eventually Friday too. Ensembles show the massive uncertainty. I never expected us to stay in the cold air completely but with some luck hopefully we can get a good snowfall with it maybe only turning milder for a few hours Friday before turning colder again (before another warm up Sat/Sun).

GEM on the otherhand is pretty much perfect for our region, definitely not too far North. in fact North Midlands the absolute sweet spot. Arpege great too. Can't really see how far the 0C isotherm gets North between 72 hours and 96 on the UKMO but knife edge.

Outside chance of some snow this evening . GFS seems interested in a slight covering in places, NMM a little (0z more than 6z), but most models aren't really interested . Here is hoping.

Didn't expect anything this week but still so frustrating not to have any depth of snow this winter. A very light dusting December, Tue night and a few flakes last night and that is it for the winter so far. Looking out the window, the Moors and hills in Bradford and beyond are white as they have been a few times this winter, but we have been just a bit too far east. If there is no measurable snow this winter, alongside 13/14, it will be the only time in my records since 95 . Last winter wasn't a great one nationally, but we got lucky with four snowfalls that you could sledge on, luck has run out this winter. Still time I suppose.

Not sure what is wrong with the radar. We had snow this morning when there was nothing on it and then at 10.20 the sun was coming out despite the attached image. So it may not be all it seems ...

Definitely missed here as it is brightening from the North now. We have the slightest of dustings on some surfaces from 15 mins of light snow. But so frustrating as the heavy stuff is only a couple of miles away. Temp is great at 0.1c, just nothing falling. Can see the snow now to the west, and views of North Bradford are gone, suspect it will be white when they reappear. Also not sure the Netweather radar is properly aligned as it has us under moderate snow now, but skies are partly cloudy.

Bingley and Keighley seem to be getting pasted, but heading just west of here unfortunately. Looks very dark over that way.

Really light flurries here too. Temp was 2c when I got up, but as the cold air digs in it is dropping well. 0.5c now.

That band is teasing us. It is pasting Newcastle now. Doesn't seem to be losing much intensity at the moment, but just know it will be break up as it hits the Yorkshire Dales. Models support this too unfortunately.

Yep, can't really see that band producing anything and it is forecast to break up as it moves SE. Would need to maintain good intensity for any decent snow anyway as temps are marginal and it is now daytime. Almost zero chance I would say. It seems so difficult to get any snow this winter.

Each model shows a different outcome for tonight , but there is a chance of some snow, more Northern areas (North of Leeds) generally favoured but will come down to Nowcasting.

Agree that at the moment is doesn't look like we are in the best position , South West Peak District may be best , e.g Buxton. But it is still a few days away and too early to completely discount it. Snow line in W Yorks could be say 250-300m but subject to change in the coming days if we get a slight adjustment to the system and wind strength or direction .

Temp up to 1.1c now and ice is melting from the trees. The ground is still glazed over, can't walk down my steep drive and the road/pavement doesn't look much better.

Freezing rain is heavier now, temp -0.5c, everything glazed.

Freezing rain here now at -1c, temps are positive at height so even under the big blob it will be rain .