[The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:

For you

Dear me  now i know im going to Jinx it  but if that is epected to happen  i sense a warning upgrade on Thursday

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Another shift  I think  and ill stick my neck out.  We will get something between the Ecm and Gfs 18z    my call will be the middle third of the country  with perhaps  south Yorkshire getting the brunt of it.  

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

yes very slow.  a touch North maybe  at 78  

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

well  the event Friday has a few hot spots under snow for hours on end.  even if it were 1 flake an hour  people would still have a covering.   Now for the slider

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Snow-lovers EC12z has hit the mother lode for Sunday. Widespread disruptive #snow including parts of south, perhaps 10-20cm. Caveate that there is still lots of uncertainty with crucial track of low . This is taken from Chris Fawkes. So all in all descent ecm 12z 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Euro 4 for friday

 

[The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

20 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Troughs are us on the MO FAX charts for Friday, you never know more persistent snow methinks

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?tab=surfacePressureColour&fcTime=1512648000

And the Euro 4 backs that up  edit top ones 6z 

[The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

3 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Just can't bring myself to look at Sunday just yet, Sliders are notorious to forecast, Ive seen them let us down even 12hrs before landing from a good dumping to not even a flake.....or worst RAIN

But I'm fair confident that Friday will turn out to be quite a good day......Daytime snow  

 

To be honest Friday looks great. We always do well from the gap streamers here  what a start to winter. The slider well we have a ticket 

[The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

Just now, markw2680 said:

Is that for Thursday-Saturday or the unsure Sunday thing?

Friday- Saturday  found picture above

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

Found it.

[The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

WellGuys  on the met office twitter feed it shows half the country from East Scotland down through the spine of the country to the south midlands  then across to Bristol  all in the 2-5 cm zone  with 10-15 on higher ground    interesting  looks like quite an event   ps if anyone else sees it could they post it  struggling to upload   Edit   Found It.

[North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

WellGuys  on the met office twitter feed it shows half the country from East Scotland down through the spine of the country to the south midlands  then across to Bristol  all in the 2-5 cm zone  with 10-15 on higher ground    interesting  looks like quite an event   ps if anyone else sees it could they post it  struggling to upload 

[The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

1 hour ago, snow freak said:

I wouldn't get our hopes up too much this weekend to be honest.  I fear the set up will be too marginal and we are more likely to end up with icy cold rain rather than snow.  Why are there so many marginal events in the British winters these days.  It seems every time we have some sort of a chance for snow, it turns out too marginal for most of us and we just end up with rain rather than snow.  Even a few cms of snow would be nice.  That's hardly asking a lot.

The euro 4 looks good for some of the Midlands. For Friday  Elevation as always will play apart  can see most getting a covering more so above 150m  Sunday? Well anything could happen 

[The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

Just now, Midlands Ice Age said:

Down to nowcasting in my opinion, both for fri/sat and also for the possible big event on sun/mon, for this area.(Bham)

The fri/sat event depends upon whether the wind is WNW, NW or NNW.  It is still not settled, and will change when the event starts..

As to the weekend event there is still a huge divergence on the track of the slider..

We might very well be in the sweet spot if the low decides to move across southern England as it gets sucked into the mother low over Europe. There is a possibility that it may well then deepen quickly and bring us a minor(?)  blizzard with an east wind..

Nothing set in Stone(?) yet!, but very interesting for us in the middle of the Midlands.

MIA 

Yes indeed MIA   very interesting as you say   A afr cry from last year.  ps   Nice to see you again.

[The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

7 minutes ago, Diamond Joe said:

The updated Met Office Weather warning for Friday into Saturday is simply teasing me in Solihull

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?region=wm&regionType=area

Im sure you will be fine.   The wording is also very interesting.  It now says  Areas could expect 10-20cm  including NW Midlands.   thats been added on during its update   which means more heavy showers are expected.

[The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

Slow  in here.   Gfs Takes the Slider on Sunday right over our patch  Quite a shift south.    Of course this will change so one to keep an eye on.  Fun and games start Friday   Somepeople on this thread could be happy campers come the weekend.

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Not to be taken serious   but the shift here is clear for all to see

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

yes has a few have said a huge correction south west on this run.  going from this run The midlands is the Northerly edge.  Of course this run is as likely to veryfy as the last run.  Still plenty of time for  it to adjust either way.  My opinion is  it well track further North   either way interesting viewing.

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

looks like corrections south west appearing on the 06z GFS 

Yes Big shift!!   

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

coming into Euro 4 zone now  and as you can see as early as Thursday evening showers starting to turn to snow  Scotland but also Ebgland and north wales

[The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

Going by XC weather  which i often find as a good barometer,  in this part of the region i will be getting approx 4 inches   so this could be a nice little event.  even if the slider dosent work out for us

http://www.xcweather.co.uk

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Yeah I wouldn’t rule out anywhere waking up to a covering through to Saturday morning. 

Cold front straddling middle England  moving south. Mmm 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

gfs going off on one  Cheshire streamer hitting Calais 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

While we are between runs here is a few ens from the ecm regarding the slider Sunday.  For those down sarf there are a few beauties  showing London under nearly a foot of snow. There are some differences between the members ( as you would expect)  and there does look like a shift south on the mean  still all to play for 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

13 minutes ago, Nick L said:

The EC Sunday event would bring buckets of snow to hills of northern England, Midlands southwards would see a brief spell of snow but any accumulations would be slushy and temporary.

But about Midlands northwards:)