weirpig
-
Posts
10,425 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
2
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by weirpig
-
-
Lots of knee jerk reactions again I expect another few days of models disagreeing with one another. What will be interesting is the extended ukmo later tonight. It will be crucial! ( not really but I thought I'd build the suspense )
-
4
-
-
3 minutes ago, Luke Best said:
I don't believe that this is correct.
As I understand it, the op is run at a high resolution and the control at a lower resolution.
The 'GEFS members' are run with slightly adjusted starting data (and also at a lower resolution).
yep as follows
Operational run = high resolution model, no change to initial conditions
Control run = as operational model but a lower resolution model (i.e. less horizontal and vertical grid points)
Ensemble runs = the lower resolution model (same as control run) but with small changes to initial condtions
-
2
-
1
-
-
I think people are turning mad in this thread. Anyway Met still seem to be pushing the colder regime next week infact its quite a update with snow and heavy mentioned in the same sentence. hopefully over the next day or so we will start to see some agreement with this evolution within the various models. Much better than last year already and its still only Autumn.
-
5
-
-
8 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:
Op and control are outliers which suggests that the second northerly is unlikely. Given the low ppn. signal perhaps a UK or Euro high is the more likely set-up?
Id place it at 40-60 against a Northerly ( according to the ensebles) support for the opp and control but again until the midterm is sorted out ( as you can see its split into 2 clusters.) Then its difficult to see were we are going.
-
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
I'm happy with 6z- no move to EC, very cold uppers sweeping down from the north and hopefully a cold high to lock in snow cover for a few days thereafter...
Yes different from the 0z just another pattern but the same theme. Snow will and could pop up anywhere. But as you say nothing like the ECM all in all decent 6z
-
2
-
1
-
-
Control looking very similar to the opp tonight cold digging south
-
2
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:
18z is highly likely not yo come off of course.
But as nick sussex alludes.
That zipping LP' IS around 60/30 atm.
And has flagged a couple of occasions lately.
So although the dramatics can highly likely be very diluted....the chance of some notable snowfall is improving.
And if the low keeps modeling its track and movement is very open to question!
60/30 mr isobar? State education I presume?
-
Dear me blizzards on this run. Hurricane at 312 and a forecast for locusts the middle of the month. Something for everyone me thinks
-
2
-
1
-
-
Pub run special. If only more important for me is the trend. And at the moment it's looking good . Snow could pop up anywhere if this trend continues . Brilliant model watching .
-
3
-
-
10 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:
Yes same here, early Saturday morning, about 7ish there was a brief shower which created a slight dusting in patches.
I was at work early that day and would have missed it no doubt if not as it soon went and there was the odd spot of rain during the day. So at least as you say whatever the weather brings now I can't say it didn't snow in Winter 2017/18 (or at least the extended Winter if you could call it that). Let's just hope that was a little teaser for the trillions upon trillions of snowflakes to come.
And a brief shower this morning 8 oclock whilst taking son to school 2 showers. our cup runneth over!
-
Well that was fun a world away from the previous run so much volatility at the moment nothing is really clear. could it happen? maybe and before people start saying its only the GFS 6z. This morning people were praising the GEM for first picking up the signals for a failed northerly. All to play for. for me continued blocking ( in any form) is the favourite at the moment.
-
4
-
-
Just now, frosty ground said:vS
Night and day around Greenland.The Difference is Stark. Models really ARE all over the place and whatever outcome this or any of the other models produce today certainly wont prove anything for next week
-
3
-
-
Right im not giving up lets see what the 6z does wow its like the mary celeste in here
-
2
-
-
lol it's like a soap opera. On the plus side. Poland get snow
-
Just now, northwestsnow said:
Its in the general weather discussion- Summer sun posted it , think its contingency section..
I haven't seen that is this the same forecast that went for mainly north eastern winds last winter? If so wet and mild is the best update of the season
-
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Yes Karl UKMO is really good at 144 tonight - EC not as good...guess its just standard too-ing and fro-ing..
Yep standard model flux. Fergie on twitter stated blocked and cold uptill the 15th maybe even longer however after that ec run I'm sure he will change his mind
to be honest for me the model watching is nearly as good as getting the cold snowy weather.
-
4
-
-
Dear me this thread has more up and downs then a Greek tragedy think I might read The Odyssey for some light relief. 12z certainly tries to put a spanner in the works just a blip I expect signals still remain good see you for the 18z
-
7
-
-
4 minutes ago, - 40*C said:
I've just seen Gavins 12th Christmas update on you tube and I wish I hadn't. No sign of any winter come 10th December its just constant Autumnal wind and rain right out to the middle of January as we lock a very locked Atlantic pattern
.
I swear he just copies what the Met office musings are.
latest 3-monthly probabilistic outlook from @metoffice: December likely (but not guaranteed) to be colder & drier v avg; rest of winter more likely to trend into wetter/milder territory, with a higher risk of heavy rain/windier episodes.
-
1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:
Could the volcanic eruption at Bali have an effect on the upcoming winter ?
Hard to say
Global temperatures dropped last time Agung erupted
Mount Agung last erupted in 1963 after lying dormant for decades.
When it erupted, experts said global atmospheric temperatures dropped by 0.1-0.4 degrees Celsius.
That might not sound like much, but it's quite a significant drop when you consider the last ice age occurred when global temperatures were only 5C cooler than they are now.
-
2
-
-
2 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:
Looking forward to the so called 2c daytime max we will be endearing come Thursday
Have you seen any snow showers yet? we had a few flurries Saturday. so at least broke the duck for the this season.
-
Currently 6.8c here with a nagging wind and rain. will no doubt feel a lot colder later this week.
-
Opp Run very close to the mean on quite a bit of the run certainly no outlier the control on the other hand. does dip slightly but still decent ensembles from the 6z
-
Full ensembles. Control mild outlier opp on the cold side but has support
-
1
-
-
To be honest i don't remember the fax charts following any other model other than the ukmo in my opinion for what it's worth it would be one of the biggest shocks since Gareth gates losing pop idol if the ecm is that wrong at that range. Backed up by the other models I can only see it going one way . Interesting non the less
-
2
-
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
It's a good job the ecm isn't the king of models and has the highest verification stats. Sorry what was that oh. In all seriousness in its early frames it was certainly a move towards the gfs. However was scuppered around t 144 with that shortwave. As we were chaps . Eyes down for the pub run