weirpig
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Posts posted by weirpig
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5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
That's at 144 hrs Weirpig,the gfs doesn't show it until 192 hrs onwards
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at 168 hrs,you can see it forming just SW of Iceland.
192,here she comes
Yes thanks deleted bloody phone
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Ecm take on the windstorm. Most of Ireland South Wales Midlands south west across to London getting strongest winds.
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Just now, Weather-history said:
Some of their seasonal European forecasts have been frankly, absolutely crap.
Their last two winter ones have been way off
Yep Last year they also went for a very stormy winter. and that was quite benin we shall see
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Worst I have seen here in dudley. My weather station read gust of 76 mph don't know we're it came from
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I think the aperge model has broken lol seems we are still under the influence of the storm till Saturday
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4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
And isn't this model pretty good i have heard?
It's The the one that I use for windstorms usually very close to the mark. Ireland is under severe winds also Wales and northern England and the south west. Only really eastern part and London escape storm still going Tuesday night
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Arpege is going off on one it's a brutal run Ireland under close to 100mph winds for hours on end. Wales and a large swath of England also taking s battering even as Far East as the West Midlands under 60mph .
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Arpege showing Ireland being hammered also by Monday afternoon South Wales experiencing high gusts
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Latest gfs for Monday night. North west Wales taking a hammering. In fact over the border to West Midlands the north and north west England experiencing quite high gusts
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16 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
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Just now, nicktabs said:
Surprised it took so long for someone to tweet this. Looks more easterly as the storm approaches
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6 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:
Net-Wx hi rez
Mmm 60mph over large areas of England at some point Just shows the strength of this storm could be carnage in many areas
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1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:
I would imagine Cornwall ,north Wales,Cumbria and SW Scotland going amber soon .
Yep just as I was thinking still not sure the track is nailed yet could be a little more east than current projections show
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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:
So this ECM take on Ophelia sees it strong though not the strongest we have seen - it first hits S Ireland at 90mph gusts:
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017101212/great-britain/gusts-3h-mph/20171016-1800z.html
then tracks through Ireland and over Scotland, with gusts more like 70-80mph through the Irish Sea, perhaps over 90 on the tip of Anglesea (am I reading that right)?
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017101212/great-britain/gusts-3h-mph/20171017-0000z.html
Yep 95 mph north west Wales even 50-60 centre of England
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Just now, karlos1983 said:
From that to that in 24 hours
looks odd
Not sure what track it went THE remains of the low seem quite a bit north east
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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:
Top of the scale,s Ireland
Bringing parts of Wales the south west into the action
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Another budge east. Ireland direct hit ouch
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Just now, karlos1983 said:
ECM12z just churning out now.
Yep let's see if the eastward trend continues .
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Arpege takes strong winds through the Irish Sea skirting north Wales
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3 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:
Pretty much the whole world (well more than 75% of it is "above average") - is that so much of a worry. I am very skeptical about these type of long range outputs. It doesn't mean that we won't get cold / snowy periods that could last 2/3/4 weeks.
Yep and from my aging eyes Ireland looks like it's just below average . I suspect an average winter with chance of snow .
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Ophelia is showing signs of changing track and hitting the UK just after the weekend - almost 30 years to the day since the Great Storm of 1987.
Is it? there was a slight shift East but it seems to thankfully missing us but ireland copping it.
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Having looked at this run even north Wales gets gusts of nearly 90 mph
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5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
Gusts to 111mph in SW Ireland from this:
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017101112/cork/gusts-3h-mph/20171016-1500z.html
Yep nasty. Keeping a close eye on this. Obviously the track isn't nailed yet an easterly push on subsequent runs could cause a few headaches . Even that Far East it still brings winds up to 50mph in centre England
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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by weirpig
Mmm gets there sort off not as potent as the gfs brief ?