[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Looking at the ensembles  most show a potential snow event anywhere from the north all the way down to the Midlands.  At this range its very difficult to pinpoint the actual position regarding the low.  It looks like most will at least see some of the white stuff failing from the sky.  Ive also noticed the Aperage is also showing this low for Friday into Saturday .  And depending on which run you look at  Last nights run or this mornings  the main band of snow is again anywhere from the North to the Midlands    Interesting   

Also see attached Short ensembles for Brum  Opp very close to the mean

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Decent run from the ecm there Synoptics are lovely just let down by the uppers which are not the coldest at the moment . Still room for upgrades  as we go forward  eyes down for the 18z 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Snow showers packing into NW areas here (including mine)

I can dream!

Well if this comes off quite a few will see lying snow . Altitude I still think will be key. But what a nice little upgrade on the 12 z  also a lot more ridging  into Greenland after the northerly moves along on this run 

[December 2017 C.E.T. forecasts -- start of 2017/18 competition year -- and an optional precip contest begins]

very cold December this year  and dryish    lots of northerly incursions    1.9c    41mm

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

Thats quite a difference from yesterdays update!

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Chilly set of ensembles  on the 6z run  below is the graph for middle England, It shows chilly Temps coming up  also not without interest for a touch of the white stuff  even this far South.   the mean really dosent get above zero

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Way in fi now   no point in looking any further.  Northerly looks odds on at the moment  how low the uppers will be and were is still up in the air.   Also a pattern is emerging for renewed heights into greenland after that.    decent charts at the moment.

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

And how many times does ecm cold weather charts at the late stage of its output ever verify.

 

could mention countless times in the past it shown a cold output and never verifying 

Yes agree. However this starts at t96  and at this time range  ecm is definitely the top dog   Certainly something more wintry showing. How much we will see over the next few days 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Shortwave chaos!

All big 3 disagree with these and this looks like its got a bit more mileage to go. No resolution tonight regardless of what the ECM does in its later output.

Yep enough for me  still lots to be resolved  

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Ecm what are you doing? 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Dare i say it but ECM looking best out of the 3.

Bet me to it  better heights on the ecm looks a stronger block 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

this  show a few going for quite a temp drop towards the end of the short ensembles 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Control  again see that pesky shortwave by Iceland hinder the blocking.   why is it never simple?.   

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Wait can the GFS save the day with a second bit of the cherry building heights again along with a slider.

That dosent sound so outlandish   cold air is marching towards the Uk   maybe the low will slide under giving copious amounts of snowfall?.  Then Again

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Bit of a climb down by the GFS  block nowhere near as strong  shortwaves spawning in the Atlantic    and all at t144

Incoming Low looks like will take the block out  mmm   still its only November

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

mmm 6z not looking as good  high not as robust.  shortwaves making more inroads  we shall see

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Im a bit bemused this morning.  The Gfs 0z  was a very good run (it was never going to be as good as the 18z)  the UKMO is awful  but the ECM has deffo made  a beeline towards the GFS . for me all to play for .  EDIT  of course this could all change on the 6z  in which case disregard this post as its the utterings of an middle age man.

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Whilst the op is likely to be a synoptic outlier, there has been a slight movement towards it from the 18z GEFS suite.

There as  quite a few go the same route. Short ensembles 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Mix bag of ensembles. None the wiser  control gives a dartboard low . No idea 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Loosing cold uppers. Bin it 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Edit

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Sticking to it's guns somewhat 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

In the immortal words of England's favourite vegetable. Do I not like that. Awful ecm run with mild south westerlies 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Now being a fashion guru I'm in a pickle  next week I will either be wearing a rather dashing sheepskin coat. Or flip flops  what to do. Ecm and gfs at different ends of the spectrum . Do I back against the king ecm? 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Ecm says no. Onward to the 18z  tiring this model watching