[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

For me  whether these charts verify or not.  The silly season has started.  What a wonderful chart.

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Incoming  lol  just for fun  models all over the shop

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

Is that a couple of smurfs appearing on Celebrity Come Prancing!

Dear me  Pete  id shudder to think what would be unleashed if you did the ink blot test!

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

4 minutes ago, swfc said:

Slightly more amplified in the atlantic on the gfs 12z.not sure if it will have any effect. Not sure if its of any interest? Probably just a wasted post

Infact il get my coat!!!!!

 

Lol  To be fair it is   also the shortwave in the Atlantic is more south  edit big difference at 144

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

yes agree with the above posts    that blessed Euro high at the moment is a curse. Of course all could change as at the moments there is no agreement with the models from run to run.    The 6z  is well not the best  also with quite a bit of precipitation failing over most parts of the UK    no doubt will change on the 12z

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Not the best of means  on the ensembles.  However there really is a large scatter so very much up in the air   on a side note  one as the magical mystical -10 breached  i also think that particular perb is the trail blazer 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Ecm is the king of models  always has been   of course it may be wrong  but i would never back the GFS against the Ecm    i guess its that time of year when a few runs sends everyone into a frenzy.   ill take a breath and watch from afar   loads to be sorted yet.

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

15 minutes ago, comet said:

I would not worry yourself to much, we had plenty of this in depth analysis during the summer, last winter etc, etc which at times was less than accurate shall we say. There are no experts on this or any other forum that know what lies ahead during the coming months.

Yes I'm still waiting for that bloody torpedo to land . It's been up there for a couple of years now 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Extended  below  .  Shows  850s pretty much below zero all the way out.    Difficult really to judge were the blocking if any will setup  so not to helpful at this range.  Also towards the end one rogue run is heading towards the -10    Very good signs as we head into winter.   

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

The Gfs  ensembles  show very much a cooling trend as we near the end of the run.  Quite a few of them go for blocking in some shape or form  and a few similiar to the OPP  bring in a easterly.     Going of this run  a very different feel from past Novembers.

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

The Gfs 6z  keeps with the chilly theme as we enter November   then towards the end of its run  brings heights towards Greenland  and also produces an easterly  way out in Fi   interesting output for sure

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Ensembles below  show qute a cool outlook as we head into November.  The OP keeps it cool then cold as the period ends. The Control on the other hand  ends up the same way however goes a completely different route to get there.   As it stands at the moments  typical November weather  cool and quite dry  Not to bad.

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Grs Opp  very much an outlier past bonfire night  off course a long way out but nice to see the mean continues below the 0 isotherm   

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Control  similar to the OPP   also brings us into a more direct northerly flow.

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

some quite big differences even at 144 on the gfs 6z   heights into greenland alot more stable  also height rises the otherside of the pole  are also alot more pronounced 

Another run  different outcome   this one much more chillier feel 

[Tour 3 - 2018 chase]

17 hours ago, Nick L said:

If you go on Tour 3 you'll have me driving. You've been warned 

Wifes said she is going to book it this afternoon.  how many are one a tour?.

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

GFS up to its all tricks again backtrack city lol,  first Northerly clips Scotland which was modelled and now the second Northerly which modelled to hit for days goes pete tong another clipper for Scotland and east coast

Don't know if it's a backtrack just a variatllon of the theme  that far out still subject to change  but yes northerly not as potent  what is encouraging from my perspective is the theme for recurring height rises toward Greenland  and the stresses being put on the vortex   Hopefully allowing something more potent to happen when the uppers are that bit colder 

[Tour 3 - 2018 chase]

Just now, Paul said:

Have just had a couple of cancellations on t3 for next year, opening up some availability on that one. They're not on the website yet, but if you wanted them, drop me a line!

brilliant Thankyou Paul   are there spaces on the other tours?. 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Short Gfs Ensembles   all show a drop in Temps as we enter a new month

[November 2017 C.E.T. forecasts]

4.1c   cold month

[Tour 3 - 2018 chase]

Myself and my wife shall be booking later this week.  ive finally got here to agree to come    cant wait.

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Vortex  sliced in two    Some beautiful looking charts on the 6z  Then we end up with  cold air very close by in Europe   not a bad way to start in November

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

A beautiful looking gfs run  certainly more akin to the time of year . a potent northerly. Then way out in low res  an easterly of sorts with fronts approaching from the west. All in all more seasonal 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

The Gfs  certainly keeps us in a cold/cool airflow  and possibly the white stuff   although unlikely to settle  at this early stage.  a true taste of winter.   The ECM  not so good   

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

240z leaves us in a cool north westerly flow