weirpig
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Posts posted by weirpig
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Will the ecm has shifted the storm more eastwards and certainly seems to have strengthened it somewhat
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Yep Descent weather showing up for this time of the year South more so then anywhere else hovering around 19c to 20c here during the period might even get the wife to turn the heating off
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Mount Agung was hit by 73 shallow earthquakes, 135 deep volcanic quakes and nine local tremors between midnight and 6am local time today.
Thick white smoke was observed rising about 200m above the volcano’s crater, according to Bali’s Geological Agency.
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1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:
Not to be fussy, But another 1695 wouldn't go amiss.
oh yes what a year TB, Ricketts, Small pox, And Cliff Richard at number one.
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My guess is that this year will be mostly stormy as usual i expect the eastern side of USA to get the cold weather which will inturn fire the jet up bringing quite a few depressions over us. to be honest for me anything is better than the borefest we had to endure last winter.
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As Knocker stated above a nasty little feature could effect parts of the North of England , Midlands,Wales over the next few days. Arpege 0z take on the wind speeds show a vast area could be exposed to 50-65 Mph winds
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The first Mention of a bartlett High this season. awaiting the mention of the 6z and 18z having missing data. the wheeling out of the Bom when thinks get hairy and the old quote that the met office hold the JMA in high regard. yep its nearly winter.
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9 minutes ago, coldwinter said:
Its a shame the OPI didn't return, it obviously wasn't 100% but no type of prediction index ever is. It was linked in with Cohen's snow cover advance theory, the opi just gave us a number that reflected the pressure pattern across hemisphere, the pressure pattern that determines how fast the snow cover builds up! Its all linked, the OPI, taymr peninsula index and snow cover advance, basically one thing. The patterns throughout autumn set up what will happen in the following months, October is where things start to get interesting with regards to winter for me.
Ryan
Yep i agree wasnt the SAI last year the highest its ever been in regard to snowfall accumilation and last winter was hardly the best yet we still put faith in that.
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23 minutes ago, Love Snow said:
What's going on
Very active today. Volcano in Bali is about to blow as well Awaiting plague of locusts
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With all this debate regarding night time temp . If you go to accu weather it tells you the exact temperature recorded for any month and location According to this since June till now I have recorded 22 nights below 10c ( only just mind you )
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Just now, alexisj9 said:
Wind already on the up here.
Lol so many responses to that alexis . But I shall refrain
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54 minutes ago, Terminal Moraine said:
Me too, P.M.I can't remember the last time this area had an amber warning for gales- we'll see what happens.
We was Amber here for Storm Doris i believe mind you that was wild
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Arome identical to the met office update. Possible 120kh gusts around northern England down to parts of midlands
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The arpege going for areas similar to the met office for the highest winds if not as intense on the latest run. With trees in leaf could be interesting
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12 minutes ago, Surrey said:
Is it me or does this model love to over hype wind speeds.. AROME
KPH works to MPH like this:
10kph = 6mph
115kph = 71mph
ARPEGE
GFS
NETweather
For me during windstorms the Arpege is the model to follow got it spot on around here earlier this year i shall await the updated run
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14 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:
Wow! Something interesting is happening with the weather
With trees in full leaf still I can see a fair few being up rooted.
Yep amber now in force for parts of the Midlands could be a bit blowy
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26 minutes ago, suffolkboy_ said:
The first tropical storm in the series this year was Arlene.
MetOffice storm names for this year are:
Aileen Brian Caroline Dylan Eleanor Fionn Georgina Hector Iona James Karen Larry Maeve Niall Octavia Paul Rebecca Simon Tali Victor Winifred Interesting to see the MO has issued an Amber Warning this morning. Seeing as trees are in full leaf I can understand why with the winds that are forecast.
Cowin hell day see that coming Not amazingly high winds but over a very populated area could cause alot of disruption. my interest has now been pricked.
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Just having a flick through the archives. One of the most powerful storms was The Carrington event of September, 1859. Were the northern lights were visible as far south as Cuba. If that ever happened again that would spell big trouble for us
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1 minute ago, frogesque said:
It looks as if the earlier X2 flare will be caught up by the later X9 flare. There are a lot of variables, mag flux, speed and mag orientation but if the gods look kindly we could even be seen pics of aurora from Spain.
All very speculative but fingers crossed. I would hope Yorkshire and the Black Country to see something at least. We should know more within the next day.
Thanks. Another question if I may. If it does happen like you said how rare are these events . I can never remember them bring visable this far south .
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1 hour ago, frogesque said:
Sunspot AR2673 unleashed an X9 solar flair on the 6th.
Per SpaceWeather
Not yet known if there is an associated CME but if so and Earth directed this will be a doozy! Possibly arorae as far south as Paris.
Stand by your beds, this could be the big one!
Frog please help me solar not really my thing. By big one I assume auras for most of uk
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1 hour ago, Arnie Pie said:
mmm...Acording to Birmingham updates on Facebook there was some thunder heard in the city centre.....nowt seen or heard here....most likely our Dustmen cashing in on the extra overtime
Still !0 mins of fun
Still chasing Thunder Arnie?. Give it up as a bad job ps hope youve stopped paying your council tax!
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58 minutes ago, crimsone said:
Bugger. They really don't need this too.
Your quite right puts our little wind storm earlier this year into some kind of perspective.
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12.1 cold
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It really is a poor show that im getting excited about one cowin clap of thunder.
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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
It's difficult to see the exact track on this run due to the time configuration however this is were the low is 24 hours later . Has the low gone through the centre of Ireland ?