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weirpig

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Posts posted by weirpig

    Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by weirpig

    1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

    I'm sure I grew up with references to 'intense' depressions, John? So, was the 1987 'hurricane' the real thing, or was it merely a very intense depression. Did it not intensify?

    yep many times that phrase as been used  to be fair ive seen it used mainly in the USA  the tinternet is littered with such phrases

    example

    Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane Guillermo (1997). Part I: Low-Wavenumber Structure and Evolution  by the AMS

    • Like 4

    Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Blessed Weather said:

    Thanks for the explanation weirpig. I see what the problem was and yes, the missing full-stop changed the meaning of the post. But I fully accept that was unintentional. Onwards and upwards, or in the case of the SPV, hopefully downwards with zonal wind strength. Unfortunately GFS/GEFS forecasts today give no cheer over the next couple of weeks:

    788699119_GFSGEFSZMZWforecast25Oct21.thumb.png.ec83355d2ed4978b8cd9fa9471887b61.png

    Source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_60N_10hpa.png

    Thank You  and yes all for fun at this range    many more ups and downs in the coming months

    • Like 1
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    Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by weirpig

    5 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

     

    To add my tuppence worth, looking at the ECMWF chart posted by Cliff, it does NOT show a SSW at the start of December. Your post could therefore be misleading to many reading the thread. Of the 50 ensemble members used by the ECM, the mean was still showing SPV running at +20 m/s at the start of Dec. There were just 5 out of 50 members showing a reversal (negative value) of zonal wind at 10hPa/60N. Good to see the SPV pegged back, but no reversal in sight yet.

    Eh  what is the matter with you people  i never said the mean showed a SSW  i missed out a fullstop  sorry my schooling was awful   but it doesnt  take anyone of any major intellect to spot this   i was merely pointing out that a few show reversal winds towards the start of December  and a SSW at the start would be good.

    Maybe instead of a rather curt response to my initial comment  a clarification could have been asked  instead of an abrupt reply.  No??

    • Like 12

    Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    Well what was this then?

    Please clarify..

    Seeing as my post was removed  i shall reword it  The mean does indeed not show a ssw of course it does not  however there are a few members that do indeed show a reversal as such  way out and all very much for fun  but if those members do gain traction over the coming weeks it would be nice  

     

    • Like 2

    The Government's New Net Zero Strategy By 2050

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    16 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    I personally think geo-engineering will have to be an answer going forward unfortunately. 

    It's way to late now to alter the pattern by going carbon neutral by 2050.  Clues in the title global warming   and with many countries way behind us including China it really is pointless   not to say that going greener isn't the right thing to do  it's a no brainer but to think it will change the direction of the climate is wishful thinking.   Now is the time to put all efforts monies etc into geo engineering imo 

    • Like 1

    Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    36 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Yes we never tapped into any proper cold uppers other than briefly in the Feb easterly which was watered down. However we grew homegrown cold especially late December and early January and it was cold. We were often on the margins of the polar front.. I was happy with the cold spell between late Dec and mid Jan given how mild this period has been since 2010.

    Last winter although marginal  delivered in these parts not armagedon by any means but multiple snow days non the less  ranging from 5_6 inches to a covering   optimistic this season for much of the same  cold November would be ideal 

    Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by weirpig

    8 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    Take a look at the link that knocker posted.

    I have your point?  Facts are the gulf stream is at its weakest for close to 2000 years. High rates of co2 have a detrimental effect on the gulf stream  and with places such as the Amazon emitting more co2 than it absorbes the major consensus is that a collapse of the gulf stream is imminent. That is undeniable.  When is up for debate  but it could be from the next decade to 100 years. But with climate change steaming ahead sooner rather than later is the consensus of many 

    • Like 2

    Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    The post above this made my own mind up.

    'Critical point of collapse' is alarmist clap-trap.

    Really. Many studies show this. In fact one was published only a few weeks back  highlighting the fact that the gulf stream is on the verge. Alarmist maybe in regard to the weather it will cause. But the study is perfectly scientificly sound 

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1
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