[Model output discussion - closing in on Winter]

Still non the wiser in regards to the mid term  The scatter at just 192h is large with the OP right out on the mild side  A few days till the mist clears

 

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

Mean still good   however it is a slight shift east from the 12z    many many shifts to come.

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

That dreaded eastward push though on the op that i mentioned earlier came to fruition!as you say plenty of miles on the clock!!

Control similar as you would expect    fun ay it?

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

This looks stormy, and probably end up with back edge snow as it clears !! I imagine the ENS will still have the clean northerly as per the last few runs 

Purely looking at the chart  it is a picture of Beauty    very stormy as you say   certainly not boring 

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

We’re seeing less and less heights over the Arctic. It’s a concern…I’m hoping we’re not seeing the start of a strat-trop connect. 

I agree  its not brilliant to be honest  and obviously with that profile and time of year the more marginal it becomes     This run in isolation is becoming typical winterfare  with snow on high ground  and a sleety mess lower down.  Just one run though   makes it fun.

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

With a profile like this  could be a number of reloads

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

First northerly goin even more east!!mentioned it earlier!!

Yep not enough ridging into greenland  bringing in more of a westerly element 

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

Quicker evolution on the 18z  than the 12z

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

bottom one looks ace! but going by above chart, looks like the snow will be rather wet

Yep potential is there  if only it was two or three weeks later i would be confident of anything falling from the sky being snow.  however beggars cant be choosers 

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

Ice days possible on the ECM  low temps of -5  to the North around Carlisle    not a bad start to winter

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

Perfect

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

short ensembles  central england

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Altitude will play a part later next week, especially if any flow has a westerly component...

Totally agree  i just think its to marginal for widespread snow   at least its great chart viewing this early in the season

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

Quite impressive dew points  nothing marginal on that score.

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

JFF and purely for fun,...but plenty of snow around the country on this run.

Yep  snow could happen just about anywhere  may struggle to settle on low ground and by the coasts  but not bad for November

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

This period could end up being a forecasters nightmare    shortwaves and marginal uppers popping up all over the gaff    great watching   

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

18z keeping the theme going  snow into wales and middle england at 192h 

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

have it

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

168h  could be in here

  

 

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

Well that was interesting  if and of course a big if  but if it were to end up like this  serious serious conditions for the UK  it really would make global news  not just for the snow but the continual rain that would follow  cms of the stuff   quite dangerous actually 

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

After the snow came the rain  and high winds  boring this run aint  

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

With the lows developing in the flow  snow is popping up everywhere.  Lets be honest its unlikely it will be like this  but wonderful viewing

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

SSSHHH  heavy snow pulling down the country at 240h

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

Slightly slower than the 12z  but looks good

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think I agree with you re snowfall @bluearmy at least for most of the country to start with, if it goes cold it is looking dry, but get the cold in place first, then look for the snow.  We are talking about analogues with 2010, but in the south, the snow was almost a month coming after the start of the cold spell, just saying. 

Pub run T108, highlighted the area we want to follow as it approaches, hope it is same as the 12z re WAA into Greenland later:

But If people were getting excited regarding snow at close to 200hrs out then people would be telling others not to because its way out.  at that range anything can and will pop up with a cold Northerly feed  kinks in the isorbars troughs etc.  Point is most are excited because the models show it getting colder  snow is a thought best reserved unti24-48hrs. anyway  the whole lot could go the way of the pear   great model viwing though