Rocheydub
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Posts posted by Rocheydub
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Yeah, for Northern and Western counties, a likely flake or two (maybe a lot more) in stiff breezes... Going to feel very cold. Proper wintery weather.
May well be diluted closer to the time, but GFS and ECM are saying it's a done thing, GFS more-so for some time now.
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A wild night in Dublin. Spitting rain every now and then, but winds near constant at 35mph, got a gust to 55 a while ago...
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I'll gladly join in...
If you can provide the snowfall :-)
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Have to say, I like the look of the ECM, especially 168+
Yes, it's not reliable, but it brings in A very large and mobile low pressure system, blowing the HP away for good, and allowing a good cool NW/W flow, plus it looks to my untrained eye like HP is building over Greenland too.
Not an arctic blast by any means, but certainly much more interesting than partletts or sceuro highs! And will most certainly feel more 'seasonal'. My kind of weather! Bring it on.
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Congrats. Jobs aren't easy to find these days!
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But.... The heights over Europe are blown to smithereens at the end of the run.... Dreamy FI land!The latest GFS run shows just that Nick. The Canadian maritime ridge is their but we still cannot get the atlantic trough far enough east to introduce the colder flow becuase of the sustained heights over Europe.
Still, it gives a crumb of hope.
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We're escaping here on the east coast, biggest gust I recorded was a measly 24mph! A few scattered showers, but that's it!
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John Holmes said:
the chart you showed is not a greenland high, high pressure is shown simply because of the intense cold over the ice fields.
And you would be correct, the chart I showed was giving example of the colder NW influence. I said at 300+ a green high was developing, it didn't transpire by the run I showed.
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Looking good at 300+ Greenie high developing, and the Euro high getting pushed away eastwards.
Absolutely no chance of it transpiring!
And at the end of the run, a lot colder in a NW flow.
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Back on topic...
Up to to 72 hours tonight's 18z from the GFS, not much change, except that LP to our NW looks more progressive, but gets some of it's punch softened brushing by the Greenie high.
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Some amount of rain falling here at the moment, and more to come...
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Well if that low out in the atlantic comes to fruition, it may well be bye bye Euro high and hello roof tiles loss. The next half hour is getting very interesting indeed!
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And at 48 hrs, it shows a deepening low to our SW and the heights over Greenland getting bigger??? Or am I seeing things compared to the previous run??GFS rolling out now, up to 36z, no real change.
I await further pages.... But I would have a small bit of confidence in this now I have to say!
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GFS rolling out now, up to 36z, no real change.
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What is a gizzard anyway?
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Actually, IMBY, Jan was a couple of degrees colder than average, and Feb was average.Last year December was freezing but Jan and Feb were average. Could well be the opposite this year.Looking forward to the GFS output this afternoon, we'll have a better idea then if ECM or even the latter part of GFS's previous run hold any substance
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If that GFS were to transpire, I'd eat my sizeable hat! A very implausible outcome. In my opinion of course
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Good man Keith Andrews!
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Agree fully. The models yesterday were the most inconsistent we've seen in some time. It does suggest that there is a change coming, but hard to see what that change will be, so short term model watching it is for me anyway.Personally I wouldn't bother looking past T120 for any possible outcomes, look what happened yesterday with the ECM and GFS throwing up a strong ridge towards Greenland and that was at t144 it all changed i think. Who knows what will happen, will the ridge stay and retrogress further or will it sink South, the answer is nobody knows, I think we should be concentrating on the short/medium term for any exciting/interesting developments.
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For me, well it's an improvement. It's showing that after this week, we are out of this rut of euro-HP dominated blandness, so I'm happy. Even if the 12z GFS run is closer with the LP powering through, or tonights 18z is closer (and ECM's earlier run) I will be a happier bunny. In Summer, I want summer weather, In Autumn... etc. You get the picture!
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As I said above, but also, is looking more progressive at shifting the euro high eastwards with that strengthening low to our SW.Looks like the GFS 18z is picking up a signal for stronger northern blocking from Greenland eastwards, subtle changes from the 12z
Interesting run.
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Some battle going on over Greenland With a strengthening high battling a monster low at 72 hours. This greenland high is getting very interesting indeed.
*EDIT* I am of course talking about the GFS 18z currently rolling out.
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Well, tentative signs at 160 hrs of a greenland high strengthening and the euro high weakening and moving eastwards... The run continues... And appears more progressive than the previous one.
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GFS rolling out now, no changes yet as far as I can see, but only up to hour 45! Maybe by 48 the HP will get swept away by a jet stream anomaly!
Model Output Discussion - 28th November - 4th December
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Looking more likely as everyone has said for cold next week from Sunday on. Still some great concern about Sunday night and the gales... One to watch as these can shift even (though rare) in the +36 hour to +12 hour timeframe!