[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Turned to snow here finally. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Still sleet here but in car headlights you can see plenty of snow falling too. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Turning very sleety here now. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Yeah ok then, if only! 

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Not just then, all through the past ten years the best place for snow has been on a boat! 

Hoping for revenge on Wednesday morning, I can't say I'm too confident though!

Must admit the bbc weather was interesting, showed more snow for parts of the south on Saturday as well, I think if this week passes & I haven't even seen snow falling I'm going to be a little bit gutted if I'm honest. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

1 minute ago, Mark Parsons said:

It will probably all end up in the channel islands again

Don't even go there, I still haven't got over what happened back in 2013!

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

25 minutes ago, Weather Wedgie said:

As noted by others, virtually all the snowfall south of Scotland in this is after March 7th, but one can still fantasise that the 06Z GFS OP comes off and the south and west are hit by repeated snow events leaving 8-20 inches over a 5 day period:

 

One can dream, I think Dec 1981 had multiple snowfalls leaving over a foot of level snow at sea level here in North Somerset, was 9 years old back then & if it happens again I hope I'm still young enough to enjoy it lol. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

17 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

SW England has turned a funny colour.

 

Stuff dreams are made of for this area! One day a chart like that will come off. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

4 hours ago, Daniel* said:

I had to check and well they didn’t for 99% not during the real arrival of the beast.

28th Feb 2018 max temps and 1st March 2018 comfortably subzero… Midlands for example -3C maxes parts of Wales had -5C maxes. Maybe some forget how cold it was. Unprecedented event for time of year. The GFS is pants with cold temps in my experience particularly in deep FI although we shouldn’t ignore the increased solar input, it does take more to become noticeable cold spell, but an exceptionally cold air mass will do justice in that case probably to mid March. There still is time albeit not a lot of it, of course ideally it would be a month earlier. Adjust expectations a week of snow cover what some of us experienced in December is a very long shot.

Even here in North Somerset we had daytime temps of around - 2 for a couple of days during that bfte so someone has a very short memory of how cold that event actually was for the time of year. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

If we can't have cold weather enough for snow then I hope it becomes very mild as feb goes on, might mean I get to see my hedgehog visitors back in the garden again soon. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

32 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Apologise for what, exactly? Not going into full-on ramp mode? 

Oh I dunno, things like accusing others of straw clutching just for posting gfs charts in a thread which is meant for such activity, stuff like that! 

I just find it fascinating watching how it all unfolds, which ever way it ends up playing out. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Yep, I think it's going to be one of those model suites that cause elation or despair lol. 

If it ends up being despair then I can see my ignore list growing significantly with all the pathetic one-upmanship & I told you so posts that will flood this thread!

Quite fascinating seeing how this all plays out, normally we'd see the gfs backtrack to the euros a little with each new run but it's not dropping the cold easterly, it's like a dog with a bone. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Hoping for some breaks in the clouds  tonight to see the comet, using an astronomy app on my phone shows it's currently above the house at the moment but sodding cloud is obscuring the view. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Right, enough already. doesn’t get much better than this.

Well I know one thing, it'll be funny as hell if gfs turned out to be correct, considering how some posters keep bad mouthing it since the 'update'! 

Other models crud for cold but are dry down here with hp close to the south & at this time of year I'd take that as well to be honest, fascinating to see it play out either way & with the huge differences at such short range at least we won't have long to wait to see who's correct. 

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Still cold on Sunday with snow on the ground

Right in that 20cm zone, one day charts like that will come off!

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

8 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Over the years I have often heard the 'Arctic high' being mentioned on the forum. I genuinely don't ever remember a case where same high ended up benefiting us. Not even once.

For me the Christmas period is loaded with potential and 10 days out is an eternity in normal weather terms and in current situation more so. Okay maybe the lead up less cold but if we all had a dream of a white one our perfect scenario would surely be for it to fall on Christmas night, not 3 days before.

I don't care what ensemble or model support there is, the fact is they are all fickle and not to be trusted beyond 7 days.

I believe the brutal Jan '87 event was brought about by an Arctic high pressure. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

-8 according to the car readout this morning. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Looking forward to some milder temps, gawd never thought I'd say that but damn  what a wind up this cold spell has been imby, snow all around us at some point & nothing here. Oh well on to the next chase lol

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

So that's snow to the north, east, west & south of here over the past few days & nothing here, gutted but that's the issue with showers & small disturbances popping up like we've had, just pure luck like those sitting under that pivoting precipitation that kept going all through today! 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Absolute bust here overnight with that band of precipitation, it literally weakened & became patchy as it passed overhead & then reinvigorated as it moved past to the east. 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

12 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

192hrs sees the cold hanging in and better heights towards our north west 

Gets a BOOM from me

Gets a big fat bust from me, boohoo lol. Much prefer the other chart you posted a while back with the South West in the sweet spot. But I expect this will be how it'll play out. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

16 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Do you think we will see anything?

Well fergie on points West weather yesterday evening talked about showers heading up the Bristol channel so I'm assuming at some point today the wind will push the showers more east instead of south east as the day goes on. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

So annoying to see all these showers passing to the south west of my location, good for those seeing snow though. 

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

For a selfish IMBY point of view, I'll have the ECM 00z. Ta!

Jackpot for my backyard which means chances of verifying, I'd rather not know & keep on dreaming instead! 

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I’d say around Friday/Saturday there may be a decent consensus. Get it to within 4 day range.

After the nightmare I'd rather forget that was the heavy snowfall that was forecast to hit the south just 12 hours earlier the night before that ended up pummelling the channel Islands instead I doubt we'll be sure of the track of this system until very close to the actual event, if it even impacts the UK at all.l. Fascinating seeing how it all unfolds either way.