[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Just shows how useless models are at predicting showers not one shows the line of showers in Northumberland 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Might come to early for it to be snow but looks like a decent band of showers coming down the coast 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

58 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Beebs week ahead forecast saying the snow on Tuesday could come down thick and fast

Need a bit of a upgrade for us at low levels looks very marginal 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

Cold air flooding down from the North now.

 

Yes cold enough for snow at lower levels from about tea time. Might catch the edge of a few if I’m lucky. Places like Whitby in a better place 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

The beebs forecast for Darlo on Tuesday has gone from light snow to sleet now

Mild sector coming into play as I feared but still time for this to change 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

UKV is good for our region early hours Wednesday, wouldn’t rule out a few showers clipping coastal regions on Monday 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

At 72 hours there is still a massive spread in the 850’s for my location on the GFS

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Just now, NorthEastSnow said:

Please make this be true, well not Seabreeze I mean the outcome lol.

All I want is enough to take the kids sledging and I’m a happy man 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Met office latest thinking for Tuesday 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Every run of the ECM and GFS is turning the wind slightly less north westerly and more northerly around Monday at the minute not enough to bring showers onto land but something to watch on the 12zs to see if the trend continues 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Basically radar watching Tuesday for that low , won’t know it’s exact track until the actual day 

Some ensembles are bring a much better northerly even at this short range due to a disturbance just of Norway, probably end up nothing but something to watch 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

GFS ensembles are interesting at 96hrs for the first time they are many that go below -12hpa some as low as -16hpa. These were not there earlier and at such a early timescale This is for Redcar at 96hrs

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

1 hour ago, Continental Climate said:

Are we due anything from the initial northerly on sun/Monday? Looks to be mainly showers that will stay out to sea. We don't do well from a northerly!!

Not currently, maybe us right on the coast might catch a few. There is a front moving down which gets close but currently all models keep it out in the North Sea 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

I wonder if one of those is this front the beeb show moving south

Yeah it’s on the ECM as well as the UKMO 

One to watch that’s for sure 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Just now, shawty1984 said:

We are much drier than the west and the pennies aren't we?

I can't remember a good snow event from North west/west though could be wrong.

The rain shadow effect definitely exists but can also on other occasions pep up the precipitation. Don’t think it will come into play next week the bigger concern for us on lower levels is the warm sector that is low has 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

4 minutes ago, shawty1984 said:

I doubt it, not with winds turning westerly, anything that makes it past the pennines will be just light. 

Only makes a difference if it’s showers , if that was the case with fronts etc we would be dry as a bone most of the year 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

9 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

Met Weather is already showing snow symbols for next week 

Every chance for us next week but as ever it’s luck of the draw 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

For balance in this thread the ECM brings plenty of snow chances for the North of England and Scotland 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

One thing that has happened today is the initial northerly has trended colder across all models 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Two show events on the UKMO tonight for our part of the world 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

The APERGE still rock solid in bringing a much cleaner northerly been consistent for a while now 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

6 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I don’t hold much faith in the chart tbh but I also don’t see ecm run out to T240 as as dry as the Sahara. 

Because it’s not dry for many parts snow event for the north and extreme south 

Disturbances will pop up at short notice also if the ECM came off also 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

The APERGE continues to show a much stronger block and a cleaner northerly 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Yes, but it's a pretty snowless run for most as a consequence. 

Some snow was meant to arrive Monday for many, now we're back to a week away at least outside of Scotland. 

In terms of frontal snowfall yes but you can guarantee disturbances would arise closer to the time 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Ridge going up it the Atlantic to support the Greenland high. Honestly this is the most crazy chase in a long time