seabreeze86

Rain with sleet mixed in here at sea level, surface temps are to high at the moment looks decent for the east from wednesday onwards with much colder uppers and a stronger easterly flow.

Looks like there a few small showers popping up in the north sea to the east of us or am i seeing things that arnt there it has been known :smilz38:

Quite a few showers already in the north sea and moving east uppers droping to -6 so will be a wintry mix to low levels they wont push inland as there is next to no wind, dewpoint currently just below freezing, first snow radar watching of the year

The uppers are cold enough for low land snow but there wont be to much precip around but cant rule out some snow showers on east coasts. If you are talking about the warm front that will get nowhere near us which is a good thing as it shows how strong the block is.

With 850 temps that low over the north sea anywere down the east coast of britain would be at risk of deep snow, there would be regional differences due to the covective nature of the showers, But i would urge caution a cold spell is now in the bag but as cold as the ecm gfs are showing has a few hurdles to cross yet but i would go for 60/40 in favour of severe cold if the UKMO joins the party(by the way the UKMO is still a belting run just not on the same level as the other big 2) on the 0z tommorow then that would go up to 70/30. Anyway just enjoy these charts as they are incredible

The ecm and gfs 12z runs are insane if they came off (not saying they will) we would see constant snow showers and severe frosts inland, coastal regions ie me would see shower after shower with the temperture gradient of 19 to 22 degrees the convection would be tremendous. Snowstorm1 we can safely say if this cold spell came off as the ecm and gfs have it at the min your college would be closed

Alot of hurdles to cross yet before we talk about snow my gut feeling is that this easterly attempted will fail to deliver but the floodgates will open soon after for the cold everything is beggining to fall into place. The AO seems to be heading more negative every day great second half of winter to come i feel. What a 18z thow couldent of dreamed of even seeing charts like that 2 weeks ago.

My hunch is that we will have a more high pressure dominated second half of winter bringing much colder and dryer conditions in febuary the start of march. I also think we will see a failed easterly attemped in mid january, just a educated guess thow from what i have seen on various forecast sites.

I hope so to because our see defences are in the process of being rebuilt in redcar so i would be terrible timing and could course some serious damage.

The latest gfs run moves the storm alot futher south and closer to the coast of the north east if this trend continues on the next couple of runs a storm surge and coastal flooding down the east coast will become a high probability especially seen as though the peak of the tide coinsides with the strongest winds. Also a tide of 5.4 is predicted for my area which although is not a big spring tide is still a decent size tide. One to watch i feel.

Yes been keeping an eye on that still got some hills to clear yet but fingers crossed, the wind seemes to of picked up a little can only help i would think

Shower seemed to die away on the last radar update even light snow would do for me

Your extra height could prove the difference, not long to wait now

Could get interesting for you snowstorm in the next hour or so thing i might even see some wet snow if them showers continue to pep up as they move west

Looking at the latest GFS output looks like friday and onto saturday could be interesting for the north east with much colder uppers and more of a notherly flow with plenty of showers, but the problem is thats 5 days away so could completly change although the gfs has been consistent on this for sometime now

The problem is snowstorm the radar said the showers that passed threw my area this morning where snow and they were most definatly rain not even sleety but then again you might have more luck as i have no elavation

Just rain here -5 850s not good enough for low level snow on the coast so cant say i am suprised, nice to hear overs with some elavation getting some snow.

I see accuweather have gone for a milder winter for the uk with average precip, exciting this time of the year when forecasts start to come out. If this winter has one month is half as good as last december then i will settle for that.

25.7 today the high another fantastic day not looking forward to trying to get to sleep tonight as the temp is still 19.8 quite amazing as it is october in 2 hours.Looks like there could be abit of cloud around tommorow for the north east then game over on sunday unfortunatly.

24.7 highest measured here on the coast by far the best day of the year. The beech was packed great bonus after a bad summer looks like it will the heat hang on until saturday here 25.1 now not a cloud in the sky if only it was july and the sun would be out until after 9

My wife has in the last few nights when ive been out.

71 mph gust recorded at loftus weather station just up the road from me. I think windspeeds will peak around 6ish for this region

The gusts now are getting very lively, easily over 60mph a couple of roof tiles down in the street next to mine wouldent be suprised to see a few more follow.

Very heavy rain here and has been for the past 45 mins my road looks like a river.

Very heavy shower here but did not here any thunder, sky has looked very threatening all day.