seabreeze86

That shows snow for me so will take that, very marginal for monday but these situations always are. I wouldent place to much faith in even the high res models even they can get it totally wrong. For me its a case of radar watching and reports from other people in the region always the best way in these situations.

I live close to the town center it was a decent shower aswell lasted a good few mins. Did not settle though air temp way to high. Nice to see another poster from Redcar

Just had a small snow shower here first of this cold spell, Monday looks very interesting going to be marginal in places for a time but as the cold digs back in behind the low it should be falling as snow but as ever in these situations its radar watching and looking out for posts from others in the region. Good luck all lets hope we can make every one envious of our region like in 2010. Not by any stretch of the imagination is this like 2010 but its better than anything we had last year

More showers getting going in the north sea now, but the dew points are to high moment so will probs be rain for me on the coast

When i looked at the models this morning i smiled and shock my head thinking i will have to wait for the 12z the sort this out but that has happened every morning for the last week of so no change there. UKMO is the pick of the bunch at 144hrs Closely followed by the GEM and GFS The ECM on the other hand has the Azores high ridging up and joining with the heights other scandi therefore no undercut This is a very delicate situation and i wouldent want to call it as the ECM has shown this outcome its its last few runs. But the UKMO and GEM have been consistent with showing energy going south. Wouldent want to be doing the countryfile forecast if this uncertainty remains

But uncertainty remains the form horse after 96 hrs though. Fantastic Model watching, My wife keeps asking if i am ever going to get off this laptop i have just told her no not until spring

UKMO at 144 hrs is amazing would love there to be a 168 chart. Lets hope its a trend setter, will have to do with two frontal snow events and convective snow off the north sea i will take that anyday.

Good agreement for the shortwave to sink south east on the GEFS on the 18z.

All still to play for in my opinion. I knew something like this would happen its impossible for the GFS to be this consistent. Looking at the other outputs this morning the ECM and GEM and stonkers and the UKMO although not as good is not the horror show of the 6z. Dont overreact to two GFS runs, infact the 0z GEFS is slightly better in my opinion. Lets see what the afternoon runs bring before statements like (zonal from tuesday) as only one model is currently showing this or course it could be onto a new trend but we dont no as yet.

mmmmm that will do GFS it just doesent get any better that that. I wonder if the next thread will be named (after that 18z gfs) or even (after that pub run). Actually i hope not because we all no what transpired after the famous ECM run in December.

The JMA is very tasty tonight lets hope its onto something. http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?07-12 It gets even better towards the end. PV goes into scandi with heights building over Greenland. One of many solutions we will see in the next couple off days.

3.4 for me please.

I think people need to look at the trend we have developing. Just to highlight the GFS we have consistently seen push the Azores high further south and become less of a player around the start of the xmas period. This is allowing the low to move east instead of north east. The exact track of the low and the shortwaves that develop with it will not be decided for a few days yet. All in all great model watching.

Yes had the same thing in Redcar, I am not sure what causes it but it almost seemed like very fine snow at one point.

A high of -1.7 today very cold for on the coast. Very thick freezing fog, temp -3.7

Just wish the 850s were a couple of degrees lower as the showers have kept coming in the last couple of hours. Just rain/hail here, no frost here to much cloud and wind off the sea.

If i am being honest what the BOM is showing is where i expect us to go just not as soon maybe 15 days. I think with the trough getting cut off as the atlantic runs out juice and the Russian high backing east will give us our widow of opportunity for us to build a ridge behind the trough, towards Greenland. A Greenland high is always the safer way to get cold to our small island. Just an idea im learning all the time so go easy on me.

Lets hope the aussies are onto something, The BOM shows a Greenland high setting up with a impending northerly at 240 hrs Straw clutching i no but just one outcome of many over the next 10 to 14 days. We can hope

Steve have you broke into the ECM center and fiddled with the model because this run is insane. Before anyone says its Fantasy Land and it wont come off at the minute i dont care it was pure brilliance to see it unfold the perfect run. COME ON

Frequent heavy snow and hail showers here all day. Settled in the heavier showers but has since melted. Ice will be a major problem in the morning here no doubt

Temp dropping off nicely here down to 2.4 from 3.8 an hour ago. Dew point 0.7 850 temps dropping away also. Need the sky to clear for abit before the next showers arrive so if they are snow they have a chance of laying

Are yes my mistake just got a little excited(also should translate from french ). Been following GP's advice and following the mean its alot less stressful.

The GEFS mean get even better at 240hrs. Vast improvement on the 6z. Awaiting the ecm the see where that thinks we will head in the next 7 to 10 days.

To be fair we have been below average for a while now, not bone chilling by any means but below. Feb 1991 set ups are rare and i can just imagine the ups and downs there would off been in the model output thread leading up to that. To get a good cold spell from a scandi high is difficult and thwart with problems we must overcome but it will be good model watching whatever the outcome. If the charts get into the 120hrs range then i will get excited but for now will just enjoy the models because they could be a dam sight worse. ie last year

Great forecast GP, well explained and without doubt the best forecaster on the web. I like the way that even though if the forecast does not go according to plan we can look back and see what factors changed to effect the forecast. Looking forward to winter plenty of late nights model watching, will drive my wife crazy