Stormyking
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Posts posted by Stormyking
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I thought you might like to see these
Those are beutiful
wonder how long this volcano will carry on erupting
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Hi, Im Just wondering is this just a more like In land think or anywhere along coasts could produce something if it was to happen?
Just wondering thats all lol
thanks
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Hope everybody gets a good storm but im going to put a downer on proceedings! I feel that storms are going to be sparse as i was telling StormyKing the other day! as long as were stuck in the pattern weve been the last 3/4 years(south tracking jet/cooler tempsetc) sorry to seem a numbnut for saying it on this thread
Hey Joggs, I understand where your coming from, I agree about the disappointment of the pass 3 summers though i didnt find 2009 too bad and 2006 gave the best July month of my life and the best storm Ive ever seen, I thnk it depends where you live really but i maybe wrong lol.
For some reason I do have a really good feeling about this summer and believe that there will be quite a few storms
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Thank you Jane and good luck to you aswell Joggs
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ahhha... just be very you people from the south east try and claim the record... in parts of scotland and ni we got down to 1-2c maxes on one wednedsday and it was snowing all day with upto 2-3 foots of snow on the hills (which is still there) and by that saturday it was upto to 20c. Snow is still here you can see it from my house... plus this warm spell is only warm for the south east not really fair..
it looks like northern areas will struggle to 12c!lol, would you say the Isle of wight is part SE or C/S england?
Anway that sounds amazing 2-3ft of snow is alot and then 20c sounds even more of an amazing change withing 3 days.
I hope northern areas get some of the warmth, im sure some places in the north will get above 12c
Anyway will be Intersting to see what 18z comes up with and hope northern areas will get warmth too
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Shear can fall into two types: Directional shear and Speed shear. Directional shear is a change in wind direction with height, i.e the higher up into the atmosphere you go, the more the wind changes direction. For example, surface winds may flow from a south west direction, whereas higher up they are backed to a southerly or south easterly direction. Speed shear is a change in wind speed with height, i.e wind speed increases the higher up you go.
Strong speed shear can tilt a thunderstorm's updraught, seperating it from its downdraught, thus sustaining the upward ascent of warm, moist air into the thunderstorm without being cut-off by its downdraught. This results in a more long-lived thunderstorm. Both deep layer and low-level shear can enhance the tornado potential by causing a thunderstorm's updraft to rotate.
The GFS measures shear in metres per second, indicating its strength. When GFS forecasts days of strong deep-layer or low-level shear, also check to see there is sufficient instability. Usually several 100j/kg CAPE is enough for tornadic activity given sufficient low-level shear.
Here is a very useful site on thunderstorm development and structure: http://www.theweathe...re/ingredients/
Hope this helps.
Thankyou for that, that was very helpful
and the site helps alot too. -
Some very Interesting looking charts on 12z as others are saying, from 20c +, then down to 6-7c would be interesting to see and would jsut show of how much and how quick spring can change.
I reckon 2nd week of may onwards will have a nice warm up again and yes i know its far out but just what i think
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Hi Rainbow Snow,
Still plenty of time for changes to the set-up regarding Sunday's thunderstorm potential, but hopefully it'll turn out to be a decent day for convective activity. Regarding most important indications for thunderstorm development, the charts provided by GFS that show surface-based or mixed-level CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) will give you a quick indication of what day has thunderstorm potential.
Contributors to CAPE are low-level warmth and moisture (which are indicated by dewpoint and humidity charts) under cold air aloft (indicated by 500mb temperature and 850-500mb lapse rate charts). Mid-level dry air intrusion (indicated by relative humidity and dewpoint depression charts) will enhance hail potential and downdraught strength within a thunderstorm as negatively buoyant air aloft sinks, resulting in strong convective downdraughts.
As we get closer to the time, provided there is sufficient instability you would want to look for a forcing mechanism, such as a small-scale trough (shown on Met Office FAX charts). Other forcing mechanisms could be frontal forcing where showers, storms form along a cold front, or through surface heating.
Sunday doesn't look to produce any severe convective weather. When wanting to see whether thunderstorms have the potential to become severe, you would want to look at the shear charts, both deep-layer and at low-levels - this will give a good indication of whether storms will become organised or turn with height, enhancing the potential for tornadoes.
Hope this helps.
Hi what are shear charts adn what do they mean?
Sorry jsut trying to learn more hehe. Anyway Sunday does look interesting for some convection and maybe a storm or 2 in places so lets hope it stays
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This dry and sunny weather just does not want to give up and loving it, though felt a bit chilly today in the wind but apart from that another sunny day with some high cloud and few scattered cumulus.
Maximum Temperature today 12.8c which is also current temperature at the moment so not been all that warm.
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Certainly looks as though Wednesday will be the warmest day but looking lovely and warm all next week but with some unsettled weather as well.
Hope there will be some sort of thundery breakdown but can only hope :L
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Good luck to everyone that is part of the No storms clubs for sunday hope some one gets a storm at least :lol:
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This is actually really interesting i too wanted to know what a plume is, i knew it was like to do with warm or ery warm moist air pushing from the S or SE and it can bring Thunderstorms, But just needed to know as well of what it looked like on the charts, so Thankyou Rob and weather09 for the charts :lol:.
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Thank you Stormyking,
Hey! you never know you may see a Storm yet! Good luck Hi Jane thank you for that i think you deserve it more and hope you get one.
Anyway will be keeping my eye ont hings over next few days for sunday
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I am liking the models very much at the moment, although I think the warmest air reaching the UK will only be a brief matter, as the HP retrogresses. In the meantime though, some unsettled weather for the NW of the UK at first later on this week, but elsewhere should be fine and dry, with plenty of sunshine with variable cloud amounts. Temperatures will slowly get warmer as HP builds northwards. 20C should be achievable from Sunday onwards. The latest output suggests that Tuesday and Wednesday being the warmest days of next week. Personally though I think there will be a breakdown to Atlantic weather by the first weekend of May, and this was suggested by the latest Met 6-15 day forecast, with a breakdown from the North-west spreading Eastwards.
Yes it does look that way, though not as warm as recent charts have shown but it looks very nice and yes 20c looks ncie might even hit a 21 or 22 in some parts
I think warmest looks next tuesday or wednesday.
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Hopefully, my first Storm of the year.
But I'm not banking on it as things can change. It will be nice to see some good cloud scapes though.Hi Jane
Good luck to you, dont think i will see anything as looks like an inland thing :L
Would be nice though if we did get somet.
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Been another beutiful day but a tad cooler today in the wind but out of the wind and in the sun felt very nice indeed.
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Looking lovely on the chats lately, hopefully this continues on the charts and i think it defiantly will with this warm spell coming up.
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I can see some hints from the 5th of next month..
But thats MILES! away
That would be nice as 5th of May hapepnes to be my birthday.
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Have to say we too have mist with a funny looking sky as well, well we did but its still misty here but theres loads of dust on the cars and the dust actually smells like ash.
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I hope this doesn't go on too long - for starters, this poxy plume of ash! Not being funny, I've maintained for a long time I love a good plume, but this is entirely not what I meant - my plumes come from the S and SE for starters!
Furthermore, I was hopeful of an unsettled April as this tends to yield promising summers - well, certainly has done in the previous years. The weather has been so summery over the last few days, we haven't had (literally) a cloud in the sky - in the sun today it actually felt very warm, plus the breeze of late has dropped considerably to virtually nothing, so all in all very present.
Convectively though, its naff, and judging by the surface pressure charts, there's no change over the coming days
Exactly what i feel, i miss the pumes and french imports, our best storms always comes up from South or South east:).
I reckon we will see plenty of storms in the summer and if so bring them on. It has been beutiful over the pass 2 weeks but am missing some action in the weather
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Beutiful and sunny outside and the sun is actually feeling warm so looks like another beutiful day in store
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yes i think the polar jet will move north at some point this week along with the tropical jet,
there hints the weather becoming warmer mid week onwards.
so this clearly would mean polar jet and tropical jet pushing north until then things set to coninue as they are.
That would be nice i hope we get more warmer weather soon. The GFS does show nice warmer weather end of next week onwards probably is still far out but i think it will warm up alot more soon.
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Hi all
The weather is beutiful here this morning and quite warm as well.
I will be back with a bigger report later on
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Amazing but perfectly possible. If you look at the temp records from Torro then 29.4C has been reached in mid-April before, so I'd guess that by the third or fourth week 30C is possible, but it still would be unlikely to happen:
Thank you for that even 29C would be excellant for April and also Thank you for the information Mr Data much appreciated.
Anyway 06z looks warmer from later next week onwards but could still change which i hope it dosent, can't wait till summer now
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Forget 20C! 30C would not be far off if FI did happen, with uppers of 15C very close to the south east of the UK. Chances of this happening are low though as it is so far out. However, plumes have been showing in FI quite frequently during the past week or so.
30C Would be amazing for April.
Can i ask what does a plume look like?
it looks like northern areas will struggle to 12c!
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Unusually Dry For April
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
It has been very dry here on the Isle of wight
i think only rain i remember this month was early month and that was only a little bit over night.
Cant remember what day it was though.