Stormyking
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Posts posted by Stormyking
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Heavy sleet shower in Apse heath which is near center of the Island and there is a big shelf cloud overshooting the CB to my NNW this is beutiful.
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Just had another heavyish shower pass threw and is feeling chilly out there, It is very dark to my N/ NW .
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With a slack synoptic flow from N and NE across England and Wales, quite a few wind convergence zones setting up where sea breezes have developed as heating causes lower pressure inland than over the sea, might be why some are reporting rotating updrafts or even funnels along these convergence zones.
Yes like the funnel my friend must of witnessed earlier.
Okay this the honest truth an dam not Joking but up over ventnor downs and other tallest downs had sleet falling :o and the temperature dropped to 4.2c at ventnor downs.
Here we have had heavy convective rain with bits of hail mixed along with rotation so all in ll been an intersting 2 or so hours.
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Shower neally on us and the skies look Impressive hopefully an outside chance of hail maybe.
:lol:, My friend just phoned saying he has just seen a funnel and there are big convective spots in this shower with rotation
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Had a shower not long just missed us :lol:, there was a nice looking rain curtan but there is some more showery looking clouds heading this way by the look of it I hope I get one
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It's actually feeling quite warm out there here but a heavy looking shower looming to the west and North west of me, the sun is still out every now and then but there are alot of shower clouds about.
Temperatures around the Island starting from the Highest:
1. Central Newport: 12.2c
2. Wroxall : 11.3c
3. Newport: 10.8c
4. Freshwater: 10.7c
5. Newchurch/ Sandown: 9.6c (my area)
6. Bleaktown: 8.6c
Maximum Temperatures:
1. Newport 13.8c
2. Wroxall: 13.3c
3. Freshwater: 13.1c
4. BleakTown: 11.6c
5. Newchurch/ Sandown: 11.3c
Minimum Temperatures:
1. Wroxall: -1.5c
2. Newport: -0.1c
3. Freshwater: 0.0c
4. BleakTown: 2.0c
5. Newchurch/Sandown: 2.0c
Edit: that shower is missing us to the SW :lol:
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Hi all
Current nice and sunny out there but some shower looking clouds to my North and North West and quite convective B)
It was a very chilly night last night with1 or 2 places on the IOW getting into the minuses :lol:
Current temperatures around the Island starting from Highest to Lowest:
1. Central Newport: 13.3c
2. Newport: 11.9c
3. Freshwater: 11.7c
4. Wroxall: 10.7c
5.Bleaktown: 10.0c
Minimum Temperatures starting from Lowest:
1. Wroxall: -1.5c
2. Newport: -0.1c
3. Freshwater: 0.0c
4. Bleaktown: 2.0c
I will post the Maxium Temperatures later as they are still rising.
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Hey all, havent posted a report for 2 days which am disapointed in my self :lol:
But anyway Today has been a rather chilly day despite there being a bit more sunshine but been breezy in that N/NE wind. About 4 - 6pm there was suprising some small convective looking skies to my N/ NW and a bit to my NE which I thought was nice to see and the clouds had an Interesting structure too to them.
Now it is going quite cold out there but with a nice sunset poking threw the cloud and shining a nice orangy pinky colour on the church.
Temperatures around the Island starting from Highest to lowest:
1. Freshwater: 9.1c
2. Newport: 9.1c
3. Wroxall 8.3c
4. Bleaktown 7.9c
Todays Maximum Temperatures around the IOW starting from Highest again:
1. Newport: 12.5c
2. Freshwater: 12.3c
3. Wroxall: 11.8c
4. Bleaktown: 10.8c.
Todays Mininum Temperatures around the IOW starting from Lowest this time:
1. Bleaktown: 3.2c
2. Wroxall: 3.3c
3. Freshwater: 4.8c
4. Newport 4.9c
Will be Interesting to see how low the temperatures get tonight
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If it isn't about excitement thresholds then I must be looking at a different GFS to everyone else, since the only thing that's missing from the current outlook in terms of convection is the prospect of widespread thunderstorms. Convection looks likely to feature on every day until the Azores ridge comes in (which is 5-6 days away) and is likely to feature widespread hail and slow-moving showers and well-defined cloudscapes. Today there's even been some snow from the Midlands northwards. The aforementioned polar maritime north-westerly type looks like arising this weekend before the Azores ridge moves in. The storm risk charts also suggest a chance of scattered thunderstorms developing on Thursday and Friday.
Since we very rarely have 5-6 day outlooks with widespread convective precipitation progged every day, the question of whether it's an uninteresting outlook boils down to the question "how big does the thunder potential have to be for it to be exciting"- hence the reference to thresholds.
knowing my luck if there was going to be a good chance of thunderstorms it will probably a thursday lol, as for the past 6-7 times in a row apart from 1 saturday we have had thunderstorms on thursday's only which is quite funny really considering your saying the biggest risks could be Thursday and friday LOL.
Anyway it is very difficult to tell and I think it's another case of wait and see, fingers crossed :lol:
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The warmer weather thats been showing lately has become rather consistent so far and I think 12z looks better than 06z and now as some have said now that its now getting into the reliable time frame :lol:
Fingers crossed for nice warm or hot weather.
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This extremely Interesting to track, my eyes are literally glued to this and think im gunna be here for a while
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Wow starting to look amazing, Im gunna stay up to watch this despite college tomorrow.
edit
Nooooo mine has frozen ahhhhhh.
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I'm surprised its been so quiet storm wise, and disappointed.
I think this year could be a good year, however we need to be patient. While we had an area of High Pressure stuck to the West it's never going to be great - cold, damp, cloudy, all round rubbish really. In about a week or so, this ridge appears to sink South and then build back in from the South, bringing with it some at least warmer and nicer weather. It looks at this stage that the high will build in and shift Eastwards, allowing the potential for temperatures to get up along with injecting (fingers crossed) some moisture.
Am not expecting anything remotely interesting for the up and coming week - just got to hope that next week things start to turn more favourable, which historically, the mid to end of May tends to be more so than early May.
Yes it has been very quiet lately, I do miss the storms and waiting for those french Imports and plumes, we do have to be patient and i reckon this patieness will reward us with some good storms hopefully, fingers crossed :lol:
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Yes it does look like warmer weather is starting to show again and would be very welcome and pleasant, lets hope this is a trend and to stay hopeful that this starts to happen, we will have to see what this 06z run brings and hope it stays consistent.
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2 years ago today was a great storm that hit bristol on the evening of the 9th may 2008 never forget how close lightning was here. To bad that its not the right sort of weather for it to happen again today
Yes Tom it is, you been talking about this for ages and it sounded like a cracking storm
Unfortuenatly looks like we are going to have to wait quite a warm for big storms at the moment. -
I have a good feeling about this summer. Why are people writing it off already? Wasn't it the same in November 2009, when it was extremely wet and then followed by the coldest winter in 30 years???
May 1996, saw one of the coolest or coolest CETs and that led to a fine summer. May 1995 and 97 and 75 had snow in may and had almost the exact pattern for this week, 75 had snow in some parts at the start of June.
I have my own opinion, that cool Mays can favour a decent summer. Here is hoping....
This was what I was thinking about, I do remember November being very mild and very wet without anyone knowing that winter was going to turn out the way it did.
I do think summer will sort itself out and reckon it will turn out warm or very warm but it will be a slow progress in my opinion. I would'n remember any of those year as in 1996 and 97 I was too young to remember and 75 I wasn't even born but yeh will have to keep fingers crossed and positive
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Hi all its a cloudy and chilly night with quite a strong breeze out there now blowing from the NE and there is a temperature of 8.4c.
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9.0c is really cold for May, though i still reckon it will end up near average by the end of the month
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Really good video there pete sounds like everyone had an amazing time over there and some more great pictures.
Will be looking forward to tour 2 chase pictures and reports.
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Northerly regimes quite often do see the next change of pattern being a build of pressure to the south, which can then lead to either high pressure over Britain, southerlies (such as in the extreme switch-around in early June 1975 mentioned earlier) or rampant westerlies with a strong jet taking a relatively northerly track. In my long-range forecast I went for a warmer, unsettled third week in view of the above- it will be interesting to see if that verifies.
Showery weather and thunderstorms from the Atlantic are most often associated with polar maritime air, or in some cases returning polar maritime (when low pressure is centred out west and throws up sunshine, showers and thunderstorms from the south and south-west). Those setups generally rely upon the jet being quite weak, because a strong jet will usually mean a succession of fronts moving from west to east bringing extensive cloud cover and bands of light-moderate steady rainfall. May is a time of year when showery "Atlantic" types are relatively common, because the jet tends to be weakest in mid to late spring, though a rampant jet and a stream of frontal depressions are possible at any time of year- take the second halves of Mays 2002 and 2003 for example.
On the other side of the coin I'm not seeing many vibes from the teleconnections experts that we will see any significant pattern change any time soon- and the pattern of mid-Atlantic ridge and northerly/north-easterly winds is a pattern that can recur repeatedly throughout a given month.
Thanks for that again
, another Interesting read up, Im learning more and more by the minute.Surely the Atlantic will show signs of waking up soon but wonder how long it wil be before it does.
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Okay since my earlier report this afternoon became more cloudy and the clouds was starting to look alot darker and heavier and kept giving outbreaks of mainly light rain on and off. By about 4pm the rain got a bit heavier and there was some moderate bursts every now and then and became quite persistant, the winds have been dead calm but it still felt quite cold.
Temperatures around the Island show:
Central Newport: 9.4c
Outskirts of Newport: 9.0c
Freshwater: 8.8c
Newchurch/sandown: 8.7c which is where I am
Wroxal: 8.4c
Bleaktown: 8.2c
So only a 1.2c temperature contrast around the Island and yeh fairly chilly
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I agree too about the Atlantic and i really am starting to kind miss the Atlantic as even Strong winds with Heavy rain is really interesting and also give thunder as well at times if it brings in alot of showers
.Yes Tom FI is showing some pretty decent temperatures and better weather but unfortuenatly it's one run and still in FI
. Ah well i am still hopeful for a gradual warm up soon. -
Hi all It is cloudy and quite chilly in a NE breeze and there is the odd spot of rain falling every now and then.
Can't seem to get the temperature where I am but i will say the Temperatures in other parts of the IOW.
In Bleaktown it is 9.6c
Freshwater is 10.3c
there 2 weather stations in Newport 1 part of newport is 10.4c
other part of Newport which is central Newport is 12.2c
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06Z isn't as bad In FI, looks warmer than it has been showing but yeh its only 1 run and can't trust anything into FI and especially from GFS lol.
Though for the time being still looking pretty chilly/cold for another week or 2 but lets keep our heads up and keep positive further on into the month and towards June
Heavy sleet shower in Apse heath which is near center of the Island and there is a big shelf cloud overshooting the CB to my NNW this is beutiful.
9.0c is really cold for May, though i still reckon it will end up near average by the end of the month
, another Interesting read up, Im learning more and more by the minute.
Model Output Discussion
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
This is a very good point, I would rather that block further east to allow the southerly plumes which be very good for Hot weather with Thunderstorms
, but where the Jet is posistioned now is not looking very good for the summer if Atlantic was to wake up which I can see happening soon :/.
However this current run looks very nice for next week with 21c showing on wednesday so far.