Simon SWales
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Posts posted by Simon SWales
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I love reading these forums, people seem to think if temps are close to zero or below snow is due. Thats not always the case.
Only once in my lifetime have I witnessed freezing rain, its liquid until it hits something solid and immediatly frezzes. Now thats nasty stuff.
It turned my windscreen into thick ice in secounds, and its ice everywhere. So remember folks zero temps dont gurantee snow.
Had it in Newport last week, was snowing heavy in town but turned to rain whee I live, drove into the housing estate, car spun sidewards and done 2k damage to steering and body. Opened door to get out, fell straight down, everything coated in a black thick ice. You could here a cracking sound as the rain fell and froze.
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He is a mild ramper and biased because his location isn't in the firing line!. He is probably going only by the GFS.
Adam, Steve Murr is not a mild ramper, he calls it as he sees it and his posts are the first I look for. Still game on in my eyes, especially as i'm in Brynmawr tonight at 360m asl
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looking good here everyone for once - wales/andymusic in particular still snowing a470 completely blocked at moment - cant watch it any more - had my early xmas pressie!!! LOL Good night, god bless
btw temps here between 0 and minus 1 at moment just for you folks catching up early in morning!
Freezing rain on the Estate I live on by Junction 28 of M4, my car just went sideways and smashed my alloy on the kerb, skating rink!
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Last year we did very well out of an Easterly set up,and there is every chance there there may be a trough that pushes across to us, although certainly Eastern areas are favoured in this instance.
And of course there is a potent NW airflow pushing in after the initial Easterly for the early part of next weekend. We do very well out of such setups, and this has been the main source of snow locally so far this decade.
Of course, everything is subject.
Hi Jackone
If my memory serves me well, wasn't Jan 1982 (the best winter in terms of snowfall in South Wales)caused by an Easterly?
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Well the 18Z extends the E,ly for another 6hrs compared to the 12Z.
Still every little helps!
Lol, but it does make a change, usually the other way around!
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:lol: all hope is not lost....Long live this thread Snow Watch: Cymru And South West England Thought that was what I was grasping from the model thred lol.
Has been great having our own threads, been really good in here the last 10 days.... we want more lol. Only just managed to get the car out of Lakeside today!!!
Got 4 inches left now but thawing slowly, been a great winter so far, brings back memories of my childhood (snow lasting days, big icicles etc)... awesome!
I'm 35 going on 13 lol
Simon
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Heavy snow now in Brynmawr, here is the latest shot from the Heads of the Valleys Highest point.
Driving home soon from Swansea, should be fun.
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I think at 350+m asl in Brynmawr, we should get a right dumping. This will add to our 9 inches left from this week that has hardly melted at all.
Here is a pic from yesterday morning, looks pretty much the same now!
What a week! So reminds me of the 80's, what with snow daily and huge icicles (was only saying a few weeks ago that I couldn't remember the last time I'd seen one, now there are hundreds!
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Have to say im not very happy how the E flank is weakening.
I hope this isn't the signs of the front tilting so much of the precip heads NW!
Might pop to bed for a few hrs and see what happens.
Hi Teits
I'm travelling from Swansea to Brynmawr (top of the heads of the valleys road) in S Wales in approx 1hr, what's your thoughts on snow there? Sorry it's wrong thread but you've helped me home a few times before.
Cheers
Simon
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Is this going to miss South East Wales (Merthyr area?)
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You own Play? Good club!
i wish I did, i'm just the Manager lol, actually the manager of Hereford Play but covering Swansesa
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I'm worried, I run a nightclub in Swansea and have to drive to Brynmawr on the Heads of the Valley at about 3 in the morning!
Still got approx 7 inches from Monday night!
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Very bad thunder storm from 9.30pm-midnight in Brynmawr! My 15 month old little boy is crying because he's scared bless him. Lots of lightning and very loud thunder plus torrential rain. And i'm in work in Hereford and missed it. DOH!!!!!!
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my Guess 3.1
Simon
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I think Brynmawr (375m ASL) is the highest town in Wales. Thankfully, it's where I now live. lol
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You just couldn't make it up could you! A costly mistake that us the taxpayer again has to fork out for. Grrr
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Welcome to NW.
A case of clearing skies for your location tonight. The area of precip you see on radar may stay to the SW of you so a mainly cloudy,cold day for tomorrow. There could be a chance of further snow but this is likely to turn to rain once milder air sweeps in.
Hope this helps.
Hi Dave,
Thanks for the PM yesterday, was very tricky driving home this morning at 4am but managed it. Had 6-8 inches of snow fall and none has melted, but we are high up! Just heard there may be more tonight? Any thoughts?
Hope your brain isn't hurting from all that extra data on extra lol
Take care,
Simon
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Started snowing at 1am, got at last 7 inches outside now and still snowing.
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Gutted!! looks like i am about 50 miles too far south. What will i need to look for in the charts to increase the risk for snow further south?? Is it just lower temps and dew points??
WW
Hi Wintry Wales,
I'm sure Cwmbran will get some snow from this spell, especially in Ty-Canol area as it is fairly high up, if we get a lot of snow in Brynmawr, i'll let you know.
Simon.
ps, do you go clubbing in Newport as I am the General Manager of Clubnite. PM me if you want to get on guest list (if over 18 lol)
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http://212.100.247.145/ensimages/ens.20070.../t850London.png
lol, how people can see an esemble like this and say that the mild/cold battle is in the balance beggars belief!
Look interesting mid feb though, almost -15hpa
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So which way do we think the 0z is going? Ugrade or downgrade? Personally, I think the pattern is set, it's just where and when. Some people are going to have a big dumping, others a dapm squib. Just for once, it would be great for a nationwide event but these are very far between these days.
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Hi, I live in Brynmawr (365m asl) in S E Wales. Are we too far south ot in for a pasting?
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I shall have to save some money to purchase NW Extra for a year.
Im beginning to think that come the day in question we would all be better off using other members reports to decide what will fall out of the skeis. Like Nick Sussex says someone 50 miles S of me could see rain whilst I see blizzards (I wish).
Having said this I would still head for Aberdeenshire to see the full force of this cold spell.
TEITS, PM me, i'll sort you out for 3 months on extra.
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Scandi-high 5mb weaker on this run, but still developing. Bit worried about the jet tho, gets a tad too close for comfort at T114.
This is as far out as I want to look. Not bad: -
http://212.100.247.145/gfsimages/gfs.20070...120/h500slp.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1202.png
look at this, I think we're onto something...East!!!!!
If 6z shows anything like this, meltdown tomorrow.
Thought that was what I was grasping from the model thred lol.
What will i need to look for in the charts to increase the risk for snow further south?? Is it just lower temps and dew points??
Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Simon SWales
Nowt but heavy rain in Newport