joggs
-
Posts
2,500 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by joggs
-
It's gone reset mode imo. That fly's against a lot of background signals and in the nearer time it's trending towards UKMO. Don't but into any det runs after around four days imo -
Yes,you just know this spell will probably go out like this. Saying that the experts and backgrounds sigs all mention southerly tracking jet and cold outlooks in general. We'll see.
-
Just hope the next low after mid next week disrupts and keeps us cold.
-
Would love the little low to the north to come south and interact with the southern low then the low in the Atlantic to slide towards us and disrupt. Imagine that
-
Updated early today?
-
Shorter term pain for long term gain on this run,which is what I wanted. I'd rather keep us all in cold than frontal snow for me. I know it'll change but that's a great run for me
-
Sort of a middle ground solution looks likely then?. ECM picked up on the small high that doesn't let the cold uppers that far south at first. Snow chances for many after then fI looks like losing cold intensity but thats way out and hope we can go on and shuffle(Tamara's) any slivers of heights to our north with a southerly tracking jet and remain in the cold. That's the best we can hope for I guess until any northern blocking appears.
-
Them beautiful ne ............over Iceland
-
Well, bed for me. I've been a little concerned over the GFS last few days(mentioned on here), and I Personally can't ignore it despite what others say. Like most say. It's going to turn cold with snow chances and fI on the models do change alot,so that's a positive. Ideally I'd love the full on northerly option to clear the south coast(less likely) to keep us all in the game. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
-
Gutted UKMO goes from that stunning 144 chart to the 168 Just can't let the GFS go grrrrr. Cmon ECM follow the UKMO then keep Greenland clear 168 onwards. What can go wrong?
-
Would the GFS not have the better handling of things over North America later in in the run?. If the euros trend this way this evening,it could be telling.
-
That is not a snow fest. Very misleading. Could go on to be.
-
We don't want this run to verify or it'll be a few cold days,snow for the favoured few then a look at losing everything that's got us into this position.
-
Underwhelming mo update for me. Wonder if we're far enough north to hang onto the cold air next week.....
-
Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks
joggs replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Sounds like they're not expecting anything major from next week's cold spell. Longevity of the cold spell next week doesn't look too clever. Might have to wait until Feb(strat warming) to shuffle the pack again once the nw blocking disappears. -
What are the rampers like in the mod thread. The promised land has always stayed around 10 days away. Some of us get told to not stick by the op runs(I get that) then when winter nirvana appears,it's all systems go......
-
The models are trending pretty much the same over the last 5 days or so in my eyes. Promising nirvana at day 10. No matter how much we all wish for the deep cold,snow,I can't see it coming. Expectations need to be roped in imo,then if the unexpected does happen..........Boom
-
Yes,it's always at day 10 You can't say that on that thread though,get lynched lol. The main culprits ramping away make me laugh. You could see a few days ago it was getting watered down,which I pointed out with some explanation. I do feel we'll have some decent shots at cold to come though.
-
One day these are great and next not. I get told these are more reliable. Is this true?.
-
No denying,that is a great run. Let's hope we can keep on the line of this. Still alot if water to pass under the bridge. Hopefully this time tomorrow this run will keep the same line of thought.
-
Yes,you would think.
-
So can ruin it for us?.
-
Apparently short waves can't derail the whole thing against background signals I got told in here. I hope they can't.
-
Totally agree with this Nick. But imo,the dodgy gfs op gave a clue last night and I know it's rare for the ops to lead the way(not saying they have this time,just the decline in Greenland blocking). Don't get me wrong, we'd all still wish for this pattern whilst suffering mild southwesterly's. Things could still work out brilliantly,but can't argue with the expected(some of us) downgrades,but will welcome big upgrades lol.
-
It's a few deterministic runs across all suites that have lessoned the (nailed on Greenland heights). If people want to play it that way,that's up to them. GFS,started it last night and other models followed suit today,I see no problem with that. Yes,you're right the overall pattern is good(not as good imo)but the GEFS n EPS can change also.
