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joggs

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Everything posted by joggs

  1. joggs
    Ridge is flattened because of the PV over Greenland. Happens nearly all the time.
  2. joggs
    Can't see that going under the AH
  3. joggs
    Would've thought a dampener with the colder temps
  4. joggs
    Thanks for the update. What lag time would you be talking about to start affecting the models?. Tia
  5. joggs
    Absolutely vile weather. I feel we're cursed. Not even a bit of sun. Climate change looks like it's going to be a sh*#a for us. If it can go wrong,it does,always. We'll, gonna come back after Xmas to see the mediocre charts still churning out lol.
  6. joggs
    Downgrades nearer the time.......the shock. After a break,just come back to view Anyway,hope the promised background signals produce the goods further down the line. It will be interesting to see the outcome and how the models deal with them. Another break lol.
  7. joggs
    Sorry Dennis. All you've done is cherry pic charts that are not coming to fruition. Could you please counter this by showing the more likely route. Thanks
  8. joggs
    Although the models are moving away from the cold solution(to what was showing), there's no sign of a Bartlett setting up imo. For a start,there is no sign of endless SW winds.....
  9. joggs
    But it can be the opposite also. Feb 91 a good case.
  10. joggs
    Be surprised if it slides against the Iberian high. Edit,no. Iberian high again ruining our chances on this run.
  11. joggs
    Poor ECM tbh. I'm not really feeling this cold snap. Crumb of comfort is that it could be under doing the high in the Atlantic and we know how progressive the GFS can be. Think we'll have to wait for the 2 Nd week of January onwards for anything prolonged(cold). Waiting game for the strat and trop to finally play ball.
  12. joggs
    Just want it to blooming dry out fgs. If we don't get cold we get bloody rain
  13. joggs
    Just wish it would dry up. Hoping to see amplification of the pattern in the next 5 days or so. We have crap luck in this country for cold n snow.
  14. joggs
    It's all been trending the wrong way for a cold Xmas in the last couple of days. Of course things can change but ,I'm not an expert in the background signals, MJO, AMM ect. The forecasts for these seem to have been wrong????. Anyway, kudos to the met further outlook this time. If you're of a cold persuasion (like myself) it's probably a good time for a time out. Keep up the great work everyone.
  15. joggs
    I think some are reading into background sigs and hoping to see them produce cold nirvana in the realms on the model output.
  16. joggs
    That's what will hopefully gather pace. It's not built up for an Atlantic onslaught.
  17. joggs
    I know for cold for that time isn't good but the Atlantic is cut off there and if background sigs can play ball,it's not the worst place to start imo.
  18. joggs
    If the background sigs are correct. On the money imo.
  19. joggs
    Not good at all lol.
  20. joggs
    I honestly think the lower heights over Spain into north Africa will play ball. Retrogression for me there.
  21. joggs
    If the background signals carry on the way they are,I can see the PV draining away from Greenland. I'm quite happy with that.
  22. joggs
    We'll,it was the GFS that picked up our previous cold spell first so hope it's on the money. I think the ECM will get there. The northern hemisphere looks primed for retrogression of the pattern from day 10, especially with some good background signals showing the same. Slowly slowly....
  23. joggs
    The BBC monthly is not worth taking seriously.
  24. joggs
    Definitely picking up the trend of the background drivers in the very outer limits........ Interesting.
  25. joggs
    A few flakes starting at this altitude
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