UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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When does the cold spell start?
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I'm only jealous!!We shall see. What will be will be! Anyhow here it's still pounding down with big flakes! Great to see
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You need to look at the ensembles, as there are a number of them showing that option with a mobile Westerly set up albeit one which is cold, but we lose the blocking high to our East.Each to there own but how you can say there will be milder air over the country when the current forecasts say no! I am down for a high if 1c and a low of -4c this week ! Hardly mild! Certainly might be mild in some locations but doubt it
Indeed Feb 91, but I sense a pattern change from next week looking at the ensembles.They have been poor but they have been wrong with the mild been pushed back nearer the time, not the other way around.
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So your placing your faith in the models when all of them have been all over the place recently, all of them have been very poor this winter and I see no reason to change my viewpoint.Don't think so!
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The reality will be a couple of hours of snow followed by milder air covering all the country and copious amounts of rain, we rarely see the model output verify at +120 and beyond.Models as good as we could have hoped for now, i cannot believe people arguing in mod, fair enough not going to be snow everywhere but there never is, the worst option which is hardly any snow then atlantic crashing throug looks too have receeded, the other options are a blizzard somwhere followed by atlantic, or a blizzard somewhere and cold wins!!!
its patience required, subtle changes
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Temp 2.0c and the usual, rain. Another poor excuse for a cold spell bites the dust, at least Mr Sunshine makes a rare appearance for the rest of the week
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Fingers crossed BT, there maybe life in the old dog yet.Falls in nicely with the Met Office 9pm forecast for heavy snow for most of the region.
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Temp 1.9c and moderate snow which is now settling in places.
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They are entertaining as in they build our hopes up but never actually verify, today being a prime example,Aye PF.. Breakdowns are what make F1 so entertaining!
Anywho, one the sport section?
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Thanks SK, point taken.Okie dokie:
Second at 12z
Joint first at 0z
The most surprising thing for me there is the Indian model, which is verifying better at 0z then the GEM, and is 0.002 off the GFS!!
SK
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I meant at 5 days, this was discussed when the the UKMO were showing charts that was poor for cold.Well 12z's its second behind the ECMWF
Top of the pile
SK
And then at 0z:
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Temp back up now 2.0c, time to put this one to bed and see if tomorrow brings us more luck.
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The trouble is though the UKMO is not very good in the +144 range.Well, given the choice (a false choice, I know) between the GFS and UKMO models, I'd put my money on the UKMO...Not because I like snow and blizzards and that's what the UKMO shows, but because it's made for UK/European climes, and Brits & Europeans should be more in-tune with our conditions...
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Agree, all those mouthwatering charts never ever verify , now we are looking at Friday for the next big event. We all know now what will happen.I know exactly what you mean - the powdery stuff as well which we so rarely get - I think that what we need is an area of intense cold over Europe so that it it gives a chance for a blocking high to build but at the moment the temps are just a little below normal. Bearing in mind the warming effect of the North Sea we need the max temp down to about -8C at Amsterdam to be assured of a good 'ice day' over here.
I feel like giving up on the current situation and looking forward to a warm sunny spring
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Lets hope they are onto something Glenn and it's not an outlier.Huge snow for the west from the UKMO
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Model thread going into meltdown, apparently the UKMO is showing an undercutting low with block out east holding firm. Could be a big snow event for us on Friday, now where I've I heard that before.
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On Ski Sunday ?Heavy snow
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Temp 2.0c light sleet/snow blah, blah, blah, a bit of an overhyped non event, again.
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Temp 2.1c light snow falling but really struggling to settle
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Indeed, I completely forgotten about that one in my rant. We got over 30cm of snow out of that, so that's two in in 34 years.The 27th January 1996 delivered some very heavy snow to much of the NW and that came courtesy of an easterly, the direction of flow was perfect for our region thanks to the position of heights to our north. The snow came courtesy of a potent trough feature within the easterly flow. The period 21 Jan - 10 Feb 96 goes down in my books as one of the best snowy periods for the NW in the last 25 years, in actual fact I would say it hasn't been bettered since, not even early Jan 10 beats it. The infamous 5/6 feb 96 event was superb..
So easterlies can deliver heavy snow to the NW but the synoptics have to be just right.
Temp now 3.6c with a few flakes of snow.
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Temp now 3.7c, cloud cover building.
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Is it just me or does anyone else despise Easterlies, not one has delivered anything here since the winter of 78/79. Every year we get suckered into "the beast from the East" and how many times do they turn out to be a damp squib?
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I've got one last moan left before I need to lye down and here it is. Easterlies I hate them with a vengeance now, every winter I get sucked into them and not one has delivered since the winter of 78/79, there's more chance of winning the lottery than an Easterly delivering the goods IMBY. In fact after South Westerlies it's my most despised form of weather. I've got an headache now, time to chillax!
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Indeed, in fact only those in Pennine areas will see snow tomorrow, the rest more rain I'm afraid. On the bright side, there will be frost thereafter.The first band should fall as snow across most of NW England. It's the second band that you should be concerned about as that looks primarily of rain for a large part of north wes.
Anywho, one the sport section?
North West England Regional Discussion 13/01/13 ------>
in Regional
Posted · Edited by Sceptical Inquirer