UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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I think the GFS one was intended as a joke, besides I never take any of their precipitation charts seriously. As for people panicking, it's called the NW jitters, so many times we have seen these things go wrong even with the MetO's blessing. I'm sure this time will be different as everything seems in our favour, lets bring it on I say.I agree, people really need to just sit back and watch it all unfold. I trust the Met Office on this occasion. Too many people on here looking for potential flaws, I mean the amount of people who posted that one chart from the GFS with a hole in the precipitation right over the south of our region sums it up really, people are panicing when there is nothing at present to panic about!
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I know, lets hope that trend continues BT. I don't think this thread could survive another near miss.Not really, take my word for it, the NMM isn't great with precipitation forecasts more than about 12 hours away.
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I'll worry if this trend is showing tomorrow, in fact if it is we could be looking at the mother of all disappointments. Fingers crossed this disappears tomorrow.Slightly concerning as the tendency on the 12z runs has been to reduce the fronts progress and intensity. Just our luck if it fizzles out! I'll only start to worry should this trend be maintained on future runs.
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It's a long way out but we could be looking at a repeat performance come next Monday/Tuesday, if that was to verify imagine some of the snow totals for the region by then.
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I even think that is highly unlikely Ian, I can see this being a 24-36 hr event, so favoured locations could see around 30 cm + out of this,Some cold spells have gone breasts up, though in the era of intensive model watching I've never known a snow event at this range go the way of the pear with such NWP agreement.
All that could go wrong IMO is a dramatic shift South/West of the PPN.
It does weaken it though.
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It's the same hole which was shown in the day after tomorrow, which flash froze everything in it's path. I best stock up on some firewood then!Haha a great big gaping hole... That's the new we know and love
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it's the fronts that attack us thereafter Ian that will surpass that total I would say.I don't think there will be as much as Feb 96 - that was a HUGE slow moving staller. On the morning of the event, the PPN had reached SW Scotland - Lancs coast and Wales and then took over 12 hours to get to me in North West Staffs.
It then snowed all day the next day (though increasingly lighter) to give around 7 inches, so you can see why there was such huge depths in a rough SW Scotland - Blackpool - Wrexham sort of line.
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I'm thinking on the lines of 79' that was the last time we saw successive fronts bring snow to our region. This time next week we could be looking at some very impressive snow totals, for my locale I would say over a foot easily. RAMP! RAMP! RAMP!!!Indeed pal, think 96? for a county wide frontal event!
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For once it looks like the entire region will see snow and significant accumulations, how many times can we say we've said that over the years.
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Just wait until the downgrades appear.Hence NW's world-famous slogan: It'sYou Don't Have To Bin It To Win It!
It's sure good to see everyone in such good humour, today...
Off course for those not use to my jackboot humour, that's a joke!
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Without wanting to go into ramping mode, we could be looking at a cold spell which rivals all the great ones from the past. Remember the coldest part of winter hasn't even showed it's hand yet, if GP's call is correct.
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I'll have my nose pressed against the window with my tongue dangling out all night, it could cause a problem with the neighbours though.Manchester is right in the firing line - somewhere is going to get a right dumping in the North West, coupled with potential blizzards... Not a good night for travelling.
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Apologies for my previous comment, it was meant to be tongue in cheek rather than an attack on other posters. I must learn to use the smilies more.A warning, this thread will not be going down the way of the rest of the climate forum. Any postings of that nature will be immediately removed.
Thanks
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Well well, I awoke this morning dreading to log in for the inevitable downgrades we are so use to seeing, imagine my delight when all is still on track. We are looking at 24 -48 hours of snow, some heavy with drifting, this could be a memorable one for the NW.
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There is zero evidence to suggest that decreasing arctic sea ice was the cause of changing weather patterns, however there is stacks of evidence to suggest that solar activity is responsible. So any arguments really are a chicken and egg variety. Also has our climate changed that much really, remember we now live in a media infested world where once such events would go rather unnoticed.
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Ha Ha, I've noticed that myself Ian, have you noticed though they never comment on how we need the block to move Westwards so us and Ireland benefit. Lets hope all those in the West benefit from this.Exactly, there will be a lot of cheerleading in the model thread to back it all West as that could then pull their easterly in.
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Back to the model output, I really don't know why people place much faith in the NAE, it's been pretty pants for as long as I can remember. There will be slight variations in the +72hr range, but I think the general pattern of the block holding firm and any mild incursions struggling to make it into SW parts, looks pretty solid to me.
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Temp here -1.4c. I do sometimes think my weather station is badly placed, or just plain crap.
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Thanks Ian, a very good assessment. I do think we are looking at a rare beast, but if I recall the winter of 78/79 had repeated attacks from the SW resulting in successive frontal snow events.I think it is very interesting because we have signs of height rises to the North and ongoing low heights over Europe, the former may be as a result of the SSW, plus quite an aggressive Atlantic - as long as these 3 hold then the PFJ will at time straddle or be to the South of the UK and that's the perfect set-up for frontal snowfall, rather than bitterly cold temps. But I'm sure most of us would prefer the snow rather than some deep freezer set-up that only tends to favour coastal areas in the East and South.
We see how the models have struggled - the GFS especially always wants to blast the jet to Norway and it takes them time to adjust and work out the way forward.
Most battleground scenarios usually end in the second system forcing the milder air through because you don't have the combo of raising heights to the North AND low heights over Europe, so this could be a rare beast.
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Indeed you are correct with regards to the angle of attack, I share your concerns also that block may strengthen and thus keep any precipitation to the South of us. That aside I think what we are looking at can only be described as perfect synoptics for the NW, what are your thoughts for next week Ian say if the models have called this right?Well the angle of attack for this fella looks NNW - SSE, so not too far off vertical rather than a front coming up from the SW and only reaching Birmingham etc... . Both the ECM and GFS jut the shortwave towards South Wales which should be perfect in terms of where the PPN band is ahead.
The only problem I can see is if the block to the East strengthens that little bit and the front ends up sliding in a North Wales - Central Southern England line - but clearly that is not what the models are showing at the moment.
We have margin to error to work with in terms of the PPN advance East, I'd be a little worried about it getting to me if I was in say a Leeds - Nottingham sort of line. Let's see what tomorrow brings but it ain't gonna be better than THAT GFS, although the ECM is very very decent too.
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That's nearly as bad as my ramp in the regionals Frosty, but if the models do verify then I believe this will be one of the snowiest periods of weather England and Wales will have seen for over twenty five years. Amazing charts and it's very rare I ramp.The 12z runs this afternoon have ramp alerts stamped all over them, and it's all so close we can almost touch it. Friday remains the pivotal day as the fronts hit the entrenched cold block of air over the BI, I can now picture metoffice going through their various levels of alerts through to the highest level by fri/sat. If the far northeast of the uk miss the main disruptive band of heavy snow/gales, they will still get blitzed by snow showers as winds strengthen and pressure falls, the further n and east you are in the uk should be a safe bet to remain bone chillingly cold with either persistent snow or snow flurries/showers, the position of the main zone of high impact weather is still to be nailed, but it does now look like most of the uk will remain locked in cold air with severe windchill, penetrating frosts and either prolonged snow or snow showers.
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I would advise extreme caution at this stage, if this followed similar patterns from the past then any snow wouldn't make it past South Midlands. Now lets throw caution to the wind and start ramping as these sort of setups are a 1/25 year occurrence. If we strike gold then snow amounts could be in the region of 20-50cm depending on how many undercutting lows hit our neck of the woods, with drifting snow causing huge drifts in excess off 7-15 feet.
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Wise words indeed, for anyone who remembers winters from the last 20 years and beyond will be familiar with such a scenario. With such a stubborn block in place and as much as I would love to see what the models are showing, I can't help but feel that the Northern extent of any snow will be much further South than being modelled, please let me be wrong though.Im exactly the same Nick.
Quiet an unusual set up because normally you associate a front moving in from the Atlantic bringing milder temps but due to the pivoting front we actually see colder upper temps arrive from the E. Looking at the predicted temps when the front arrives it certainly won't be marginal because widely temps are below freezing and so are the dewpoints (-3C), upper temps across the E at -10C.
Where im dubious is how the front even manages to get to my region. Now history tells me it never makes it this far NE. Looking at the UKMO between +72 & +96 and im unconvinced whats its showing.
So for now I would say Wales, SW, W Midlands have plenty to be excited about but for the rest of us I would hold on a while.
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Firstly what an absolutely barnstorming GFS and UKMO, if this was to verify it would surpass February 1996 even. But before we go all orgasmic on this lets remember just how many times we have been led down the garden path, but then to find we are in the wrong ruddy garden. Tomorrows output will hopefully give us some clarity for Friday and beyond, now I'm off to sacrifice a chicken to the weather gods.
North West England Regional Discussion 16/01/13, 12z Onwards
in Regional
Posted
Oh bugger this isn't looking good, if this goes mammaries up I'm giving up on model watching.