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UV-RAY

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    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Sceptical Inquirer

    Well said Gibby, just tell it how it is, nobody here, or very few want it to happen but the smoke is starting to clear now on a change back to the normal uk default winter pattern of average/mild zoneality, that depression by friday looks strong enough to shunt the cold block well to the east and then we will have at least a week and maybe longer of normal weather before we can start looking realistically for the next cold snap.

    Personally I can't wait to see the back end of what as been an East/West split, though there are parts there too that have missed out. I've only recorded three frosts and sub zero temps, there has been little in the way of sun or snow and quite frankly it's one of the most overrated cold spells in the last forty years.

    Back to the models and from what I've seen the models look very similar to December, cool and unsettled, with little sign of the elusive Greenland heights and -NAO.

    North West England Regional Discussion - January 19th 2013>

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Sceptical Inquirer

    Absolutely no chance of any worthwhile snow IMBY in the next five days, it's been a pretty poor few days no sunshine, no frost and that drip, drip, drip you get with thawing snow. We need heights to transfer over to Greenland, but not one model output shows that happening out in FI. I see the PV lobe coming out of Canada and setting up shop exactly where it did in December, cold rain and lots off.

    North West England Regional Discussion - January 19th 2013>

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Sceptical Inquirer

    But this is coming from the SE in NNW direction-must be missing the western flank of the Pennines and coming up the gap.

    Also this stuff hasn't come over miles of warmish sea but is progressing over a cooler land.

    It was an attempted ( failed ) humorous quip at how our region generally miss out. Must do better next time.

    North West England Regional Discussion - January 19th 2013>

    in Regional

    Posted

    Well done to the models for picking up western extent of the ppn, the area of low pressure now moving into SE England with the heavier snow which is going to track up the eastern side of the UK, light to moderate falls further west.

    Different to Friday as we haven't got the big cold blocking high pressure refusing to let the ppn advance north and east.

    post-9615-0-45760700-1358677923_thumb.pn

    But what about those majestic peaks the pennines, you know the ones which seem impenetrable to any advancing snow from the East.biggrin.png

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Apologies to the other mods and hosts but I feel I deserve the right of reply here.

    Steve

    You are the king of sour grapes.

    Yes, yet again little Bexleyheath hasn't achieved snowmageddon, so the fact that the rest of the country has had considerable snowfall and sub zero temps is of little relevence. I take exception to your suggestion that the whole thing has been ramped up in the stratosphere thread. No, in fact all along it has been suggested that the SSW was akin to shuffling the deck of cards and putting a few extra aces in the pack. And so far that has occurred. In fact the tropospheric forecasts have mirrored the stratospheric conditions very well this winter.

    But don't ask me - ask the met office here: http://metofficenews...pheric-warming/, or the BBC weather department : http://www.bbc.co.uk.../feeds/20992173, or many others.

    However, there is one thing noticeable. It is the fact that you tried to write off the cold spell before it began - and yes it was forecast and based on tried and tested stratospheric theory (that is now becoming mainstream) that earlier in the season you had petulantly gone out of your way to dismiss in the technical thread. No wonder you want to play it down.

    Well Steve, this cold spell is significant, and whether the SSW delivers further cold or not, it has certainly shaken up the winter from the mild and zonal weather that was taking hold previously and, no doubt, the CET from the onset of the SSW will show this, no matter how much snow Bexleyheath receives.

    Perhaps you will have the good grace to acknowledge this?

    c

    Actually Steve has a point, yes granted the pattern has changed but only to what I would call bog standard winter synoptics in January for the UK. What we have seen is what we would expect too see at this time of year, with or without any SSW.

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Yes I think today we have seen the GFS put back the return of the Atlantic again but at the same time the models are agreeing on one of the Lows finally tracking far enough North to edge the block away.

    I certainly don't see a return to conventional zonality thereafter but can we finally see those Greenland heights as we head into Feb ?

    I'm very much hoping we see heights transfer to Greenland, it's been a pretty poor affair for a lot of areas in the NW. Though my concern is as we saw in December when a piece of the PV moved out of Canada.
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