UV-RAY
-
Posts
3,600 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by UV-RAY
-
-
Well up until now the third worst winter for cold, frost and snow in the last forty years. Still time for winter to redeem itself however.
-
Roll on the Atlantic breakthrough, at least then I might be able to record a frost and sub zero temps. Current temps 2.4c.
-
Looks like I won't be recording another frost tonight, temp 1.2c. It wouldn't be so bad but I've only recorded six frosts all winter, I recorded seven in Autumn.
-
Lovely day today after enduring seven consecutive days of grey laden skies. Snow is still holding firm with just a slight thaw, temp 2.1c.
-
Why is it when comments on what the models are showing are looked upon in disdain, if the models only show mild then that's all we can comment on. It's been a sorry episode in the model thread this winter, where good posters get lambasted for daring to suggest the outlook is poor.
Anyway, rant over and we have model consensus of a much milder pattern setting in from this weekend, this lasting at least 7-10 days out. All talk of Greenland heights and cold reloads are pie in the sky at this moment in time, off course that's not to say this time next week we could be looking at charts showing such delights.
-
Temperature got down to 0.4c last night rising to 1.0c an hour ago, it's currently 0.8c with a slight thaw evident.
-
+1 I've been trying to get a similar message across myself, but a few here seem to hang onto every forecast/person that suggests cold. Your right if its cold you seek then the models paint a very poor picture, similar to the output in December. Remember then when we had a piece of the PV lobe moving out of Canada and how some suggested it was coming, we all know the rest. Luckily things can and do change quickly in the model output, more so this winter.Only because I feel a few on here seem to take everything GP, CH says as gospel. Im just trying to add some realisim here that the models aren't pointing towards another cold spell at the moment within a sensible timeframe or even FI. Basically im just trying to prevent members being disappointed if the cold spell doesn't arrive as GP, CH have been suggesting.
The stratosphere is one piece of a jigsaw amongst many. However some of these pieces are bigger than others i.e SSTs. I just feel the Stratosphere isn't as big as some believe on here. I generally have a negative view of LRFs whoever produces them because in my opinion we cannot fit all these pieces together to complete the puzzle.
-
I'm hoping for some from tomorrow night, but as of yet it's still grey laden, although temps are lower than they have been for a few evenings. Currently 0.6c, so some icy patches maybe possible later.anyone got clear skies? Here they are clear and you can imagine what's happening!
-
I would say he's only commenting on what is being shown, we can't comment on what isn't.I disagree you seem to be looking at a glass empty and not half full.
There have been a few signs that after a breif reforming of the pv it looks to break up as we head into feb. ECM shows this to a extent in the later frames and a few previous op runs have been toying with the idea.
The suposed ssw that GP hints at has happened a few weeks back i believe but is yet to filter which could take up to a month which ties in with early Feb.
I expect a lot of stella fi to start in a day or two as the effects of the ssw start to filter into the op runs such like P10 on the gfs earlier on.
Fun times ahead i feel.
-
I would say they look likely going well into February going off the charts tonight.This ECM run is enough to give you nightmares and probably night terrors to GP & CH!
Im getting a sense of deja vu at the moment from recent years and I hope this doesn't become true. What I mean by this is I recall last year I think, might be 2011, when we we're supposed to see epic blocking and quiet the reverse happened.
GEFS ensembles aren't really screaming a GH at the moment and the mean has actually dropped today.
http://cdn.nwstatic....mslReyjavic.png
I know GP said early Feb and that we might even see a cold spell develop as early as the 28th Jan. However at this stage this is looking incredibly unlikely especially starting at the 28th Jan. At the moment a long fetch of SW,lys is looking the likely outlook for the end of Jan.
-
It's been mostly like that here for days, so i won't notice much difference.It's more or less died a death now.
Snow looks unlikely now until later this week (Friday?) looking like quite boring, overcast and cold weather until then.
-
I think that's a fair assessment taking away December 2010 and January 2010, but I think that works both ways in terms of any warming. The last thirty years really hasn't produced many memorable hot spells. IMO it's all part and parcel of what we should expect in this part of the world.Seems to back what I said WH, take out Dec 2010 and the rest seem pretty ordinary cold spells which would slot into any decade as a decent cold snap. There seems little evidence for some sort of quantifiable and crucial change in our winters, other than (and long may it continue) we appear to be doing better than we were in the very poor late 90s early 2000s.
-
Looking like we'll get some better weather from the weekend onwards, rather than the grey laden skies and temp of 1-3 by day and night. Hopefully the next cold spell will actually be cold.
-
Temp is now 1.6c, skies maybe darker but there is now zilch falling from them. Also the heavy snow symbol on the MetO site for here has been downgraded to light snow. I think that will be pushing it really. Another damp squib for these parts.
Marks out of ten for winter so far, I would say 4.
-
Temp as now dropped to 1.9c and the skies have gone a lot darker.
-
Just saw a flake the size of five pence piece, if it carries on like this I'm going to call my own COBRA meeting.
-
Light fizzle here.
-
Temp on the march upwards again after a brief fall, now up at 2.4c. Still no sign of the elusive heavy snow.
-
Nearest towns to me are showing up as having heavy snow from 12 noon, guess what, that's right nothing. I shall remain cautiously pessimistic!
-
Temp still on a downward trend, now 2.0c.
-
Temp down here now to 2.3c, the old reverse psychology is working.
Now 2.1c WTF!!!
-
Make another brew and relax as it it won't happen, if it does that means it will extend to here and there's no chance of that happening.Nearly spat my coffee all over my keyboard .... meto updated forecast snow all day - heavy snow 3.00 pm where did that come from ??
-
Looks like my estimated temp for the day may need revising, already at 2.8c so I think they will probably max out nearer to 4.0c. Not far from average if it does, cold spell what cold spell, Lol
-
Think that's it for the day here really, we'll probably still get a few flakes like now but nothing worthwhile. Still far from impressed with this cool spell.
Winter Model Discussion 12Z 22/1/13 onwards.
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Well another cracking set of model runs this morning, low heights to our North and big fat high over the Azores. No sign of the elusive Greenland high and once this pattern is locked in, I can't see an easy return to colder conditions anytime soon.