UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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Yes a lot of areas did very well out of that cold spell, but what we are looking at now are brief flirtations with cold not the deep cold synoptics touted by some on here. We would have to see an amazing turnaround in the model output within the next week if it's sustained cold we want, that looks highly unlikely at this stage, so the best we can hope for is RPM between the warm sectors.Who is looking for a Greeny high all the time.Not me,we have just had a two week cold spell without one.
If ECM is to be believed there is plenty to please never mind your straw clutching and clock ticking stuff.. http://www.meteociel...900/ECH1-96.GIF
http://www.meteociel...1-168.GIF?29-12 N/Westerly in yby http://www.meteociel...0-168.GIF?29-12 nice 850s
And this to finish BY day 10 http://www.meteociel...1-240.GIF?29-12
There is more to clutch at in ONE run than in many previos winters.
GFS ensembles look fine too and people would have gladly accepted these through the years http://www.wetterzen...chester_ens.png
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A well balanced post Nick and I think your suggestion of the Azores high being in a favourable position is the only straw we can clutch for the next 10-14 days, beyond that who knows, but the clock is ticking for anyone looking for deep cold.We have to accept that the Azores high is determined to play a key role for the foreseeable future.
I don't see a clear signal to develop Greenland high pressure within the next ten days so its really the movement of the Azores high that will dictate the flow into the UK and western Europe.
If you can get this far enough west and north then any low pressure travelling around the peripheries can bring some wintry weather but you're always liable to have warmer sectors occasionally effecting some parts of the UK.
The general idea of low heights developing in central Europe looks solid so this precludes any milder spells but as for deep cold I don't really see this without a pressure rise to the ne or pressure rising over Greenland.
So I think its looking like a mixed bag of conditions with everything thrown in for the timebeing.
In the shorter term still uncertainty for the weekend with the ECM progging that deep low whereas both the GFS and UKMO don't, unusual to see the ECM doing this, you'd expect this more of the GFS.
The outlook could of course be worse at least there is some wintry potential in the outlook but at the moment not perhaps the deep cold and longer lasting snow that most people in here want to see.
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Actually Piers has been nearer the mark this winter than many of our so called experts on here, it appears Piers is easy to make fun off here, but his record is as good as anyones here, sure he gets it wrong at times but look at the Net weather winter forecast, busted in December.Which is, of itself, saying something!
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Wow, it's a bit feisty on here tonight, more so. Well another day and another set of model runs, no sign still of any sustained cold spell, yes we have the potential for some rather cold air via the NW, but we are still looking at transitional cold rather than anything prolonged. Also the ensembles still paint a fairly average picture so no point in posting those unless we are cherry picking personal preferences, the outlook remains one of fairly average weather for all with no signs of deep cold as forecasted by some. Still plenty of time for those golden charts to appear though.
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Certainly not mild today, temp 5.4c and breezy.
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It's all well and good saying the charts show promise but we've been hearing those words most of the winter. The last cold spell wasn't nothing spectacular in terms of deep cold, for many places it was simply too marginal for snow either falling or lying for any period of time. The outlook at best suggests transitional cool/cold snaps for the foreseeable, this may change in the coming days but until then I prefer to comment on what the models are showing, rather than hoping.
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You can tell when the models are grim for cold when you see post showing cherry picked ensembles, nothings changed in the last few days the pattern is flat and low heights over Greenland. Same old, same old, for most of this winter.
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It's been a fairly sunless 12 months around these parts, and the last few months have been a nightmare for anyone suffering from S.A.D. Hopefully this year gives us something more to be cheerful about, but this is Blighty so I won't be holding my breath.
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Best weather for weeks IMO. sunshine and showers. I'd almost forgot what the sun looked like. Temp 7.1c, heating turned off, fabulous.
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A lovely fresh and breezy day in store, temp 6.1c.
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Those charts have reignited my interest in winter CC, heights over Greenland and Scandinavia. RJS LRF is leading the pack IMO.CFS continues its trend very similar to EC32. Atlantic completely blocked off. Anomalous heights right across our north and spreading down into the north Atlantic. Low pressure over the continent. Very wintry if it's anywhere close to the mark.
Images courtesy of Meteociel
Temperature anomalies (850's)
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It's an article RP, not peer reviewed science. I would put up a link but posting from iPad at the moment.So long as it's been properly peer-reviewed, what could be a problem?
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Don Easterbook wrote an excellent article on this over on WUWT. Off course some here will dismiss it as it's not been IPCC approved, LOL.GLACIERS MELTING
Glaciers in the tropical Andes have shrunk by 30-50% since the 1970s, according to a study.
The glaciers, which provide fresh water for tens of millions in South America, are retreating at their fastest rate in the past 300 years.
The study included data on about half of all Andean glaciers and blamed the melting on an average temperature rise of 0.7C from 1950-1994.
Details appear in the academic journal Cryosphere.
The authors report that glaciers are retreating everywhere in the tropical Andes, but the melting is more pronounced for small glaciers at low altitudes.
Glaciers at altitudes below 5,400m have lost about 1.35m in ice thickness per year since the late 1970s, twice the rate of the larger, high-altitude glaciers.
"Because the maximum thickness of these small, low-altitude glaciers rarely exceeds 40 metres, with such an annual loss they will probably completely disappear within the coming decades," said lead author Antoine Rabatel, from the Laboratory for Glaciology and Environmental Geophysics in Grenoble, France.
Water shortages
The researchers also say there was little change in the amount of rainfall in the region over the last few decades and so could not account for changes in glacier retreat.
Without changes in rainfall, the region could face water shortages in the future, the scientists say.
The Santa River valley in Peru could be most affected; its hundreds of thousands of inhabitants rely heavily on glacier water for agriculture, domestic consumption, and hydropower.
Large cities, such as La Paz in Bolivia, could also face problems. "Glaciers provide about 15% of the La Paz water supply throughout the year, increasing to about 27% during the dry season," said co-author Alvaro Soruco from the Institute of Geological and Environmental Investigations in Bolivia.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has pointed to the importance of mountain glaciers as sensitive indicators of climate change.
Globally, glaciers have been retreating since the early 20th Century, with a few exceptions. Himalayan glaciers are relatively poorly studied and there are suggestions that some are actually putting on mass.
Some scientists say the Chacaltaya glacier in Bolivia, which used to be the world's highest ski run, has already nearly disappeared.
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Whereas a Greenland high delivers for all, Easterlies you can keep em!That's because you to far west to receive anything in Easterlies I like them because I'm in a favoured spot for snow although this just passed wasn't the best did better last year for terms of snow. I would tend to favour NElys because they really bring in vast amounts of snow across the country.
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Temp now 6.8c, much higher than I expected today.
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Off Whalley Old Road in Wilpshire.Maybe I was spoilt living in Cumbria, but that wasn't a spectacular break down. No wind, no drifting, and not that much snow. Don't get me wrong, it was a nice snowfall but nothing in historical terms.
Where in the Ribble Valley do you live? Its quite long!
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Wow temps are now 6.4c. the slush around me is disappearing fast.
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I can't stand Easterlies as they often promise so much but deliver very little much of the time, now heights over Greenland get the old juices going. This probably why I've been very pessimistic over the last few months, apologies to everyone I've annoyed and there appears to be quite a few.I can agree easterlies do bring the coldest uppers but getting it in the right spot is always hard come to think of it. With GH you just need it in a fairly Decent place and you will get what you want.
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6.2c for me please.
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A horrid slushy mess outside yet 10 miles south a foot of snow, such is the diversity of a crappy UK climate. Looking forward to some lovely stormy weather next week and temps in double figures, the countdown for Spring begins.
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Now back to heavy sleet, looks likely to stay like this or turn back to rain again, temp now 2.0c. You wouldn't think I had just short,of a 100m altitude and was 25 miles inland.
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Tis only weather this is true, but my desire for mild is now strong too say the least.Im not sure I believe this, but if it is, this is the nature of weather.. deal with it! I'm not even able to be home to see the snow.. thats a kick in the crotch, but it's just life!
Even 98 in these parts recorded more snow and frost events, it is the luck of the draw but you can only compare what happens IMBY.
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Cant wait and long may it continue.I recon another 2 hrs of sleet/snow type stuff according to rain today radar
12 degrees tuesday bbq?
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Now it's peeing down with rain, temp now 2.1c. This winter truly is on par with the worst on record in this area.
Global Warming. What do you expect to see in your lifetime?
in Climate Change
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I expect no changes , as I believe that the majority of warming can be attributed to natural variability, the rest isn't worth worrying about.