UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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It looks like my ordnance survey maps Ian!So to pass the tIme: here's a little exercise for those of you who expressed an interest in forecast profiles and how to use them wIthIn the forum here.... these two tephigram ascents are both for Friday AM. The BLACK one is E side of the Pennines... the RED one for SE England. I'll leave you to consider just what weather type can be expected from both at these locations.... have fun!
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I use to be exactly the same SSIB but now until those magic words cold and snow are mentioned by the MetO, then there is little point in believing some of the more excited forecasts we get on here. Back to the models and the dry theme continues for the next 7 days at least, with the first signs of breakdown coming in from the Atlantic thereafter. Fantastic weather at the moment, this is the third day of wall to wall sunshine following an overnight frost, I've now recorded more frost than the last cold spell, Lol.So after the hype last week, by myself included , yet again we are are facing with the realisation that it was nothing more than hype , and getting sucked into the models , along with hope casting , Ian f was right all along , as he , and the met normally are , when ones in hear were having a go regarding forecasts saying it will be mainly dry , we all need to add a touch of reality into our expectations in future , because I have done this hype too many times now I'm sick of myself getting to involved , and getting led up the garden path , only to be let down leading upto the event .
I refuse to do this anymore , it's not worth the stress I put myself through , and rather than go through all this next year , I think il begin to get excited when I see the met o mention a freeze , the met o have done very well in general this year , and called things right several days before the models have watered things down with realism again .
If it wasn't for the jan spell , this year would have had little snow , yes we had a snow to rain event last wkend but in general that's not good enough . This year has been snowy because of the jan spell , but one thing I have definitely learnt is don't put all my eggs in the strat conditions , because it by no means guarantees cold , it just gives us a better chance. But this spell this week as far as I'm concerened has nothing to do with the strat warming back on the 5th jan . I also think that there is stronger drivers than the strat, a combination of several other factors can over ride the strat profile . As we all know a small vortex segment remaining in situ close to Greenland will feed continuous energy into the Atlantic , which in turn stops the NAO going negative.
Iv also saw the MJO remain stubborn in its fases which can prevent what looks like a favourable situation.
Hope you all get one last snow event , but I think in honesty now il look forward to spring and hope for a nice summer , then be back in the autumn, I intend to do some research myself this year to help my own understanding in meteorology for next winter .Along with yet another house move to take me closer to work , some 800ft ASL , obviously with alterior motives !
Take care all of you , have a wonderful year.
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I think the "hunt for cold" was just tongue in cheek, it is and always has been a MOD thread for discussing various types of weather. Unfortunately though it gets hijacked by those who are only interested in snow during the winter months, which is fine if it wasn't for the fact that anyone who dares to suggest that there are other possibilities then gets rounded up upon by the zombie masses.I know it sould not have to come to this but, I recall not long ago the MOD thread was titled "model output discussion - the hunt for cold"
My request to our headmaster (redcoat paul) would it be possible to trial two threads for the MOD discussions? (hunt for cold) (hunt for zonality) or something along those lines?
Regards
Ric.
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I would say this is the best assessment of the GFS I've seen, and one I agree with entirely.Saying the GFS is rubbish is too simplistic. I find at times the GFS can be very good especially during certain weather patterns i.e zonal but it also has its flaws. This winter the weaknesses of the GFS has been highlighted due to our weather patterns and this was especially true during the Jan cold spell.
So really its little point using verification stats and looking at the performance of the GFS globally because we are referring to the UK and certain weather patterns.
Could I live without the GFS? Most certainly and to be honest after all these years of model watching its been the GFS that has caused more ups and downs than other models.
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If tomorrow's GFS runs show a snowfest, do we A, ignore them or B, promote them to god like status?
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As an avid hill walker John's statement is definitely correct and is one I've been using to calculate summit temps for over twenty yearsI suggest you do a spot of reading up mate
3C per 1000ft in old money or 1C per 100m
If you can find the Meteorological Glossary page 7 a whole paragraph explains all about the term Adiabatic along with the DALR lapse rate 1C per 100m
The SALR is roughly half this value
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As an avid hill walker John's statement is most certainly correct and one I've used in calculating summit temps for years.I suggest you do a spot of reading up mate
3C per 1000ft in old money or 1C per 100m
If you can find the Meteorological Glossary page 7 a whole paragraph explains all about the term Adiabatic along with the DALR lapse rate 1C per 100m
The SALR is roughly half this value
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With winter drawing to an end, we can now start to evaluate LRF for this season, tbh none of them have been spectacular and if anything it just goes to show how difficult it is in making a LRF for the UK. Hats off to all those who try, but IMO we are still a long way off in making an accurate call for any season,perhaps we will never be able to correctly call a season for the UK, but I still enjoy reading them all .
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What a peach of a day temp maxed out at 8.2c but with wall to wall sunshine and little in the way of wind it felt almost like summer, ok springlike then.
Hopefully we can keep hold of these clear conditions for the week ahead, frost by night and sunshine by day, a perfect end to a grey laden winter. -
The models haven't done a good job of controlling the weather this winter, they are obviously in need of a few tweaks here and there.Bitterly disappointed with how the last 24 to 36 hrs have downgraded on the models but im not suprised at all.
Its happened sooo many times,as soon as the models start the downgrade it just seems to gather momentum.
Hopefully some in the SE might get a covering next week but for the vast majority it just looks cold and dry.
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I forgot to mention them Frosty, my mother-in-law won't be impressed. Looking an excellent week Notth of the border, a great week to bag some munro'sI also think northern scotland should be sunny all week with widespread frosts, nothing worse than being stuck under a persistent cloudsheet with nothing white coming down, may as well be sunny and cold than cloudy, dry and cold.
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Another glorious day out there, long may it continue after enduring months of crappy weather.
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Another glorious day out there, long may this continue.
Edit; Wrong thread chaps, sorry!
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The next five days looked nailed now with a dry and fairly cloudy affair, frosts limited to where there are any cloud breaks those in the West being best favoured for this.Thereafter I would say not much change at this point, dry, cool and often grey but at least dry.
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Just got back from a lovely evening out with Mrs SI and nothing has really changed on the MOD thread, we are still on course for a dry and cold spell with little in the way of snow for the majority. Oh well maybe next winter some won't be taken in by the promises of deep cold and heavy snow at the first chart that suggest such a scenario, then again!
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It's been mostly dry or wet in these parts throughout this winter, we need trough disruption to bring widespread snow, otherwise many will be looking at a dry , grey and cold spell.Honestly I really do think some people in here would play darts with an inflatable dartboard or go for a bath fully dressed.
That old saying of get the cold in first applies to the upcoming cold spell as it has done in the times before it.
I have lost track of the number of times people say it is going to be dry when this day comes and so on...snow events crop up at the last minute. They always have done.
Please for the love of god give it a rest.
Thank you. :-)
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What a fantastic day, glorious sunshine and a temp of 9.8c. Who needs grey laden Easterlies and a temp of 2 or 3c by day and night.
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Only when we have a consensus at +48 hours, so many times in the past we have seen how events prior end up nothing like that at +0. Now feet are always firmly planted on the ground until then.Maybe the clue is in the name, but you never say anything different. I wouldn't expect them to be saying anything different at this range, as it's too far out, I'm sure Ian F would tell you the same, they are not going to be making bold claims 5/6 days out! Too much can and probably will change, for better or worse.
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Exactly what some of us have been saying, until we see the MetO on board then all talk of heavy snow and wintry conditions are pie in the sky, again!Not the best of updates from Exeter this morning ...
Conditions during the second half of next week and at the weekend are expected to be cold, mostly dry but rather cloudy and breezy, with the best of any brighter weather across the west and northwest of the UK. The cloud in the east may be thick enough at times to produce some wintry showers, with some thicker cloud also spreading into the southwest at times giving some outbreaks of rain and hill snow. This may then possibly spread east to affect some other parts of the south during the weekend. Looking ahead to the last week of February, conditions likely to be largely dry but on the cold side at first but there is a low risk of some unsettled weather reaching the southwest and perhaps slowly spreading northwards.
Not liking the Rain/Hill Snow bit.
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Indeed, in a space of 48 hours the GFS has gone from zero to hero. No wonder any newbies get confused on here.Frosty - just as easily the GFS idea of wind strength could also be wrong.
It is less than 48 hours than this forum was peppered with rubbish model comments about the GFS. Suddenly it seems it is the best thing since sliced bread!
Equally wind strength has nothing whatever to do with instability of the atmosphere which is what is needed for snow showers down the east and central areas of the UK?
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Do we ignore the 06z today then?...and the colder uppers profile shifted north by the end of next week:
0z:
06z:
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For large parts of the UK, the upcoming cold spell still looks likely to be dry and cold than anything else, with any precipitation reserved for the East, SE and some Central parts of England. I still think some members are setting themselves up for a fall again with talk of heavy snow everywhere, hopefully it shall be me with egg on my face when these predictions come true.
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Heights were further North in 47 Ian, leading to a much better orientation for the UK. I can only see this being a cold, dry and cloudy affair for most of the UK.Some similarities between the output tonight and Feb 47.
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Dry, cloudy and chilly I would say.T240
-8 uppers over Ireland
Dry for just about all and chilly
Hopefully we can keep hold of these clear conditions for the week ahead, frost by night and sunshine by day, a perfect end to a grey laden winter.
North West England Regional Discussion 12th February 2013>
in Regional
Posted · Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
Ironic how this mild spell is producing the lowest minimas of the winter around this neck of the woods, I've had more frost these last five days than the rest of winter put together.