UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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Game over for this winter now really, sure we may get some transient events and a toppler or two, but lets put this pee poor winter to bed and look forward to some warmth.
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By my calculations it would take 172 winters to accumulate that amount IMBY!38" of snow for Eastern America in the coming 2 days. Here it's expected to top 4" at least, giving some perspective on things.
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No doubt it suggested heights over Greenland, as it's done all throughout this winter.Anyone know what the EC32 run from 0z last night has projected? i havent seen any tweets from matt hugo or any posts from snowking, i presume it was rubbish.
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I think we are all second guessing at the moment as the low has not formed as of yet. I'll be surprised if we don't see this much further South than currently suggested, hopefully I'll be proved wrong.People on the MOD thread mentioning a "south correction" heard that on here a few times today. The Northward track of the low has stopped but in no certain terms does this mean that a "south correction" is going to take place. There will be precipitation across the whole region for sure with places from Blackburn southwards expected to see the heaviest precipitation and therefore the highest accumulations. The south Pennines will also do very well as things stand.
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That's what makes this winter so frustrating, the NH synoptics have been fantastic yet we've been plagued with shortwaves and a PV lobe that just didn't want to leave it's maternal home of Greenland.For me it has not been a terrible winter, just nowhere near as good as could have been, although i class winter as up until April so a few more dumpings would turn it into a stonker, a decent winter so far - but for the whole region yes - poor - i have been lucky.
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Oh I'm not doubting we will see some snow, just the amounts won't be worth writing home for. A slushy deposit which lasts less than 12 hours is the story of winter so far in this neck of the woods. Looks good again for those South of Manchester, lucky b'stards!144h looks very cold to me!
you'll be fine,cumbria could if ecm is correct,miss out.
that said the bbc forecast i just watched looked less promising with the precip much more patchy than earlier!
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It's a non event for North of Manchester in what has been a shocking winter for cold and snow so far. Tis only weather though!Im usually the one trying to cheer you up!, Jet always further south lately than predicted - just seen the bbc forecast - looks like the PPN going to break up and be patchy - much heavier further south, remember, further corrections south by then, i would'nt rule out a dustng or inch but certainly no heavy snow - if i am wrong then i will admit it after the event.
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Oh good, some more jam tomorrow charts!No sign of undercutting when we need it.
On the other hand the GFS T324 is a positive though!
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I sense a further southward correction between now and Sunday, again those of us further North in the region could be looking at another non event. Still at least we've become accustomed too such events.
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With regards to Sun/Mon event, I would expect this feature to be further South come nearer the time. Unfortunately for me that would mean IMBY missing out again on a possible snow event, such is life though.
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I wouldn't take anything the GFS is showing to be gospel at this moment in time, as it's been truly woeful all this winter. Hopefully by the end of today we'll have a much clearer idea on who gets snow and who doesn't.
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He who dares wins CC!I'd rather have a shot at snow TBH. Won't get that without precipitation.
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Trouble is IMO by the time we reach Sun/Mon, this feature could then be another 100 miles further West and we miss out altogether. Hopefully not and by the end of tomorrow we'll have a clearer idea on just who and where could be in the firing line.Actually the latest FAX chart for 72hrs has the low further south and west than the UKMO 12z.
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I could tell the charts were looking good for us as the MOD thread was quiet.Good chances of snow for us now on Sunday, taking the brunt of it and for Monday. Looking good. In fact, i enjoy it even more as the latest charts suggest it's marginal for the South East.
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If the charts verified we will be looking at a carbon copy of last month, I'd put my head in the oven now if it wasn't for it being electric.I must be looking at a different set of model runs to everyone else, because as over the rest of the winter, there is nothing whatsoever in any of tonight's output for my location to be excited about. South and East of here granted yes, but here no.
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Two good points Chion, but at +240 there is plenty of time for corrections either way. Very interesting model viewing again.Likewise- it's T+240 and the jet profile may be further west / east / south /north.
The point of the post Ian was too demonstrate how cold pools can grow over the continent in the right conditions - not to suggest that it will verify or not.
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From what I've seen from the ECM , those of us in the North and West of the region will do no better than the last cold spell. Nothing to get excited about in my neck of the woods, for those in the South and East of the region same old, same old.
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Well I hope it's a darn sight better than the last snow event last month CS, I couldn't bare watching those to the North, South, East and West get there boots filled again whilst I'm stuck in my own micro climate.ECM how i love you
another epic run,not going to ramp this up,however keep a very close eye on sun/monC.S
And Thursday
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Whats' a sledge?I didnt need a sledge for this event
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Well that's that done and dusted, a light slushy deposit which has more or less thawed now. As for the weekend, I think those of us North of Manchester can forget about any snowfall the way things stand at this moment in time. On the plus side another day less of a crappy winter so far to endure.
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Still heavy snow here, but the BBC forecast shows the mild sector IMBY around 3pm, fingers crossed.
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Starting to slowly accumulate on rooftops and cars now.
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After the miserable winter in this neck of the woods, falling snow is a godsend.Still nice to see it falling even though its not sticking......yet!
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Temp down to 3.1c and still heavy wet snow.
another epic run,not going to ramp this up,however keep a very close eye on sun/mon
North West England Regional Discussion 06/02/13 10z ------>
in Regional
Posted
Light rain with a temp 3.2c. Soon be spring folks!