UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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Not really as we need too see a more SW to NE angle of attack.But theres always the chance theyve got it wrong and it stays on track like yesterday
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If the MetO have called this right then it's a non event for Lancs northwards. The next system due early next week looks like it could well take the same track, so a dry, grey and boring seven days for the North of the region could be very much on the cards.
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Could be game over for my part of the world then if this verifies, bugger!!Email to missus' work from Met Office:
"The final paragraph of yesterday’s briefing was perhaps the most telling, advising that in a potential snow situation like this, a lot of the detail can change in the lead-up period. It will therefore perhaps come as no great surprise that successive forecast updates over the past 24 hours have resulted in a change of emphasis for tomorrow’s snow, the overall message being that the risk of widespread disruption across the Northwest has reduced, especially across the northern half of the region.
Looking at the situation in more detail – some light snow may drift northwards across the region this afternoon and overnight, not amounting to very much and not causing any real issues. By the end of tonight the main area of snow is expected to be knocking on the door of west Cheshire and Merseyside. Yesterday’s prognosis, you will recall, was for the band of snow to then make slow but measured northeastwards progress across the region thereafter, effectively putting just about the whole of the Northwest in the firing line for appreciable and quite possibly disruptive snowfall. What the computer models are now indicating, and what the Chief Forecaster in Operations Centre is satisfied to go along with, is that the main band of snow will make much less NE’wards progress through tomorrow, hence reducing the amounts of snow, especially across Cumbria and Lancashire, the areas that were potentially at greatest risk from disruption this time yesterday.
If we accept the latest forecast then it is the southern end of our region i.e. Merseyside, Cheshire and possibly also south Lancashire and parts of Greater Manchester, that now appear as if they will catch the majority of the Northwest’s snow tomorrow and through Friday night, with Cheshire currently expected to see most, by virtue of it being furthest south and closest to the band of persistent snow. Indeed the spread of the snow across the region during the course of tomorrow is now much less certain. Most of us will see some between dawn tomorrow and dawn Saturday but a lot of it will be relatively light and although it will settle on all untreated surfaces, accumulations should be fairly modest. The areas most at risk from experiencing any heavier snow, sufficient to cause transport disruption, will, as already indicated, most likely be across Merseyside and Cheshire, perhaps including south Lancashire and parts of Greater Manchester. Over the northern half of Lancashire and Cumbria some intermittent snow may well develop during the course of tomorrow afternoon/evening and overnight but it shouldn’t amount to very much. Of one thing I am confident - everywhere tomorrow will be bitterly cold with temperatures around or slightly below freezing, the chill accentuated by the SE’ly wind.
A graphic of forecast snow amounts for tomorrow and Saturday is being prepared by Operations Centre and, once available, will be forwarded on in a separate email.
The Amber Alert that was issued for much of the region is being revised and will be reissued shortly. The southern end of our region will be retained in the amber sector but most, if not all of Lancashire and Cumbria will be removed and revert to Yellow status.
Looking on into the weekend, the picture is a predominantly dry one but remaining very cold with daytime temperatures struggling up to or just above freezing and only a very slow thaw (at low levels only) of any lying snow. First thing Saturday there may still be some intermittent light snow across the region but it should largely die away during the day, except perhaps towards the Pennines where snow showers pushing inland from the east may add give slight accumulations, the risk particularly for the Cumbrian Pennines.
I hope the message comes across reasonably clearly, what looked a relatively clear-cut event yesterday has now had its edges well and truly blurred so, as always, please call if you do require clarification on any of the above,
The next scheduled update will be tomorrow morning, however, any significant changes in emphasis before then will be communicated asap,
Graphic and updated Yellow/Amber Warnings to follow shortly,"
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Temp now 1.8 c, yesterday highest temp was 2.1c.
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Going off the GFS precipitation charts I should see snow from around 9pm, the the main band of snow hits us tomorrow between 09.00 - 12.00hrs. I'll go and pick up all my toys now.
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I only saw a little light snow falling last week , but we had no accumulations of the white stuff.I think we all need to get a little perspective on things-I love snow like all on here but, had to endure rain last week when some luckier people east and north within our region did have some snow. Now hopefully me and others in Liverpool and the south of the region still have a chance of seeing SOME snow this year so it is a bit dissapointing that others more widely in 'our' region are sulking cos they might not see it this time-cant people just for once be pleased that some of us in our region will have a chance for a change!- apologies for the rant but it does seem rather childish at times -I know people are dissapointed but as some of the wiser old timers on here will testify ie SP and backtrack is the weather and what will be will be and hopefully you will all see some snow but if you don't remember that us on the Liverpool and Wirral coast very very rarely see snow so please don't take away our limited anticipation of tomorrow's event by spitting your dummy out because its not going to snow in your particular bit of the region especially those of you who have already had some!
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What direction is it moving in HC?it will be interesting to see what will happen to the the convective precip in the irish sea its growing from update to update
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I think this is going to be one of those look out of the window occasions, the South of the region look ideally placed but anywhere North of Manchester is looking a little shaky. I may see some snow and after the last 24 hours I'll take a covering and be happy, those further North may not be as lucky.
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Lets hope so Crewe, I'm already fatigued from all this toing and froing.Handling precip at 24 hrs or so should be fine. As I said last night, I really rate GFS frontal rainfall predictions, even over NAE.
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Do we trust the 06z though, as some on the MOD say discount the 06z, I don't but some of the alleged big guns do.It's quite obviously an ever changing situation. Metoffice symbols on a map will be of little use I'm afraid. As you can see, things can look different in just one run.
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Novice or Pro, we are as bamboozled as the next person regarding set ups like this.Well I don't know what to make of all this? As a novice trying to interpret the output this morning it just looks as if the main event has shifted west and potentially may move south. Forecasts are still showing significant snow but it looks more like we'll see a covering rather than the blizzard I was probably unrealistically hoping for. At this point are the high res models that most of us don't have access to all important?
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The only problem with those charts is that they are always wrong.06z
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I don't quite share your optimism CC, this will turn out to be a non event for most of the region.Upgrade for most 6z GFS. Things, to me anyway, seem to be beefing up again this morning after a wobble
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Temp already up to 1.3c.
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Pine cones and seaweed!...and this is from the net/w home page issued at 8am this morning:
Across east Wales, The West Midlands and NW England – we could see 10-15cm widely, with perhaps up to 25cm over higher ground. So we are expecting hazardous conditions and travel disruption tomorrow – particularly towards the west.
I don't know what it's based on - there it is...
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One for the bin Joe.00z ECM still promising really, shame it's not a high-res mesoscale model. Still room for hope though http://m.yr.no/place...ester/long.html
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Not only will we miss the snow but in typical easterly style, the skies are grey laden for the second day running, there was no frost during the night and the outlook is for much of the same. I hate easterly blocks with a vengeance, they hardly ever deliver for our region and keep us in a boring dull and cold regime.
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I wouldn't build your hopes up for any substantial snow during the next 7 days at least, the block to our east is just too strong. A mostly dry seven days at least, those in the South of the region probably seeing snow at some point.
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No surprises really the writing was on the wall last night, now when is the next front due.
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Well time to knock this on the head and come back in the morning when hopefully we see an eastward correction of Fridays snow, if the westward trend continues then it's all aboard the next jam tomorrow train.
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Great minds think alike then, a strange and weird coincidence. It's just that from my memory Manchester rarely does well out of such set ups. Off course there is a first time for everything.I've just had the exact same conversation with Tom C over on TWO. In fact, you're not Tom C are you?
Yes, that is another potential spoiler.
Fingers crossed for the 00z runs!
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Tomorrows charts should give us all a better idea as to how far East the fronts progress. Until then no point in bothering because everything will be completely different regarding timing and progress.
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Not so sure for your locale though Joe, Manchester and a SE aren't noted for big snow events, those nasty peaks tend to be big spoilers.Re. matt's forecast, everyone should bear in mind that there are 18z updates to the MetO model and the MOGREPS short ensembles. Who's to say that these were as downbeat as the NAE, and to an extent, the GFS?
Could still turn out ok folks.
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Lol, NW blues. After so many near misses we have become accustomed to tantrums and hissy fits.Oh god you lot are nuts. 18Z - Pub Rub. Honestly think BT has a split personality. It's Wednesday. Won't be here till Friday. Hours away. Stop whinging thinking its all gone tits up because someone has thrown the toys out of the pram!
North West England Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013. 12z onwards
in Regional
Posted · Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
Having just watched the BBC weather I'm confident now in saying "game over" for Lancs Northwards. Another disappointing cold blip looks set to bite the dust.
Temp rising also at 2.9c, might as well be 12.9c