Kirkcaldy Weather

Had a feeling ESTOFEX would go level 2 for northern Spain... A level 2 was issued across N Spain and SW France mainly for severe convective wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes. SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION High pressure dominates across British Isles and Benelux, while a cold front belonging to a Scandinavian/Baltic low can trigger some thunderstorms in central Europe. Lows with unstable airmass are also active around Ukraine and Turkey. The more dynamic system is a large Atlantic low west of the Iberian Peninsula, which created a Spanish Plume with steep lapse rates from low to mid levels, drifting northward over Bay of Biscay and SW France. A shortwave mid/upper trough enters Portugal at 12Z, affecting northern Spain during the afternoon and Bay of Biscay and France during late evening and night. The main models ECMWF, ARPEGE, ICON and GFS calculate several hundreds J/kg CAPE (over 1000 MUCAPE over SW France, but capped/large CIN), a relatively high LCL (1500-2000 m) and massive vertical wind shear (30-50 m/s 0-6 km, 25 m/s 0-3 km, 10-15 m/s 0-1 km, 250-500 m2/s2 0-3 km SREH). The mean wind at 1-3 km altitude over 20 m/s suggests potential for widespread severe gusts. The aforementioned parameters support strong downburst, large hail and perhaps an isolated tornado. The largest complex is placed in most models over the central/eastern Bay of Biscay, but south and eastward are drier such that model precipitation may not reach ground. GFS deep convergence and uncapped parcel patterns suggest a wider area of storm initiations. A level 2 is issued mainly for probability of a wide extent of severe gusts and large hail. not sure if that current cloud development will limit potential just a waiting game now but the front still on the west coast. https://en.sat24.com/en/sp

Trying to pick a virtual zone for tomorrow thinking somewhere like Medina de Pomar Might be a bit of a wait for cap to be broken and could be a bust but lots of potential there.

Some cumulus bubbling up to my west April ended up with 5.2mm well below the 42mm average

Nice gust front / shelf cloud

Well if anything it is ramping up for that northern coastal area of Spain on Monday some serious convective energy and a front poised to the west. Still a capped atmosphere but with that front...

A few more of that July storm and one from here

The storm that hit here after midnight then is still the fastest I have seen a cell develop on radar to this day I was minutes away from calling it a bust then boom and I am pretty sure it could have been a supercell though obviously couldn’t see any structure but ingredients were in place as ESTOFEX forecast highlighted. Current ESTOFEX Convective Forecasts - ESTOFEX WWW.ESTOFEX.ORG A level 2 was issued for N England, S Scotland mainly for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, tornadoes and heavy rain. Potentially very severe situation with number of question marks will develop over parts of UK. As the plume of steep lapse rates overspreads the low level airmass characterised by dewpoints of 16 - 18 deg C, moderate degree of latent instability will develop over the region. CAPE values will stay mostly between 500 - 1500 J/kg, but some models allow up to 2000 J/kg of CAPE, especially over N England / S Scotland. Strong flow at low to mid-troposphere will result in 15 - 25 m/s of 0-3 and 0-6 km bulk wind shear, values well conducive for organised convection. Furthermore, veering of wind with height will favour curved hodographs and more than 200 m2/s2 of SREH in the 0-3 km layer. Such conditions would be very conducive for supercells, probably in the HP mode, or bow echoes, as much of the wind shear is confined to the surface to 700 hPa layer. Large (or even very large hail), damaging winds and even tornadoes (especially in the northern part of Lvl 2 with low LCLs) could accompany such well organised storms. My videos are on an old hard drive which stopped working before I could upload them hopefully somehow I can fix it one day.

Yeah @Mr Frost were some cells which skirted here radar showed some lightning but nothing seen or heard here but moody skies.

Main cell just skirting here ATM some moody skies though Possible mammatus trying to form

Wasn’t paying attention got some cells nearby not heard anything yet

Some more on that day here 28th June 2012 STRATUSDECK.CO.UK For many people in the UK, including meteorologists and weather enthusiasts, June 28th 2012 was a day to remember. In the afternoon, violent supercell thunderstorms... Error - Cookies Turned Off RMETS.ONLINELIBRARY.WILEY.COM Dept of Meteorology - University of Reading WWW.MET.READING.AC.UK Home page for the Department of Meteorology at the University of Reading And the sleaford tornado

Yes exactly Paul the day that springs to mind though I tend to try forget as storms completely missed here was 28th June 2012 with the Sleaford tornado which indeed had supercell signature on radar, some of the hail producers that day were also probably supercells with all the ingredients in place. Plenty of other posts from that day there is one with the radar of Sleaford somewhere. Whilst setups like that are rare for uk you don’t always need a supercell to produce funnels / weaker tornadoes. This last year up here in Scotland had a confirmed funnel and one of the Scottish members posted pics can’t remember the date though also those radar screen grabs I posted yesterday usually when u see something like that it is a sign of possible rotation

Looking at northern Spain and possibly into parts of France on the 4th, temps at or around 30C very high CAPE and LI yesterday’s run showed a -8 but -6 / -7 has been repeating but highly capped atmosphere but if any storms broke the cap you would imagine they would go nuts. Loaded gun @Paul Sherman latest fax possibly a heat low.

Very localised area of small CAPE tomorrow towards Fife but showers look to be further west so probably a waste but could be a convergence zone for Saturday might give you something else to report on @CatchMyDrift though CAPE values nothing really so probably standard showers.

Interesting radar signature from the first band moving out into North Sea also done a sketch to show hook appearance

Nice to see the reports. The current one approaching London watching it’s movement on radar does have a look of LEWP about it.

The 2km is most accurate looks to me like a squall line is a likely outcome tomorrow plenty of vorticity so I would say rotation possible

Amazing