Kirkcaldy Weather

True

-4/5 dew points in May

May = the new December possible ice day in the highlands and -4/5 dew points erm

Looks like a possible mcs moving north across Spain tomorrow morning then clearing followed by storms breaking out again in the afternoon possibly merging again, also a chance of some extending into parts of France in the evening.

Discussing if it was a supercell.

First storm developed in Spain Lightning & Thunderstorms - Portugal, Spain, France, Italy EN.BLITZORTUNG.ORG Blitzortung.org provides lightning and thunderstorm information in real time on maps for USA, United Kingdom, Australia, new Zealand, Europa, Africa, Asia and other Countries. Weather: Rainfall Radar Spain WWW.WEATHERCAST.CO.UK Rainfall radar for Spain - see rainfall across Spain Weather Spain and Portugal, Satellite Weather Spain and Portugal, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in Spain and Portugal - SAT24.com EN.SAT24.COM Weather Spain and Portugal, Satellite Weather Spain and Portugal, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in Spain and Portugal - SAT24.com

Well a sudden last minute change today for northern Spain with storms now looking like breaking out followed by a possible MCS tomorrow morning looks like faster movement of that heat low from the south. Also I can’t remember seeing an ESTOFEX forecast for tornadoes in Russia before. A level 1 was issued across NW Iberian Peninsula mainly for large hail. A level 1 was issued across parts of NW Russia mainly for tornadoes and excessive precipitation. Northwest Iberian ... Up to 10 g/kg low level specific humidity and advection of 7-7.5 K/km lower-troposphere lapse rates from NW Africa create favorable conditions for thunderstorms over broader NW Spain and N Portugal. Lift is not warranted during earlier hours, but the late afternoon and evening hours reveal much less CIN and boundary layer disturbances, during passage of a vorticity maxima. Any storms formed inlands would have higher cloud bases, and steeper lapse rates below. Up to 25 m/s deep layer shear and moderate latent instability combination promote well-organized storms with large hail potential. Northwestern Russia ... Another hotspot for severe convection is northwestern Russia. There is a moderate CAPE and very strong deep layer shear overlap around the simulated low. 0-1 km shear reaches 10-15 m/s, while the LCL is simulated to be below 800-1000 m in most parts, supporting tornado formation. Long and straight hodographs indicate splitting supercells around more western and northern parts of the level 1 area issued. Further southern parts of the Level 1 has potential for excessive precipitation, with higher humidity owing to strong advection from the Caspian Sea.

Similar to others, a cloudless day here felt quite warm too, moon just making an appearance

-10 850hpa covering good part of Scotland is a good bet now and run going out a bit further now with -6 850s reaching south coast anyone know when last time something similar happened in May?

Impressive CAPE in northern Spain again tomorrow but doesn’t look like there will be a trigger, slight chance of a coastal convergence zone but wrf nmm doesn’t seem too keen. Friday looks a very active day though across Spain and France with high CAPE and fax charts have a heat low and fronts will update once we get tomorrow’s runs.

00z had -10 850s through most of Scotland, 06z has it round about here. Think it will be mainly dry with that higher pressure though chance of some snow flurries Orkney, Shetland, highlands etc but main thing looks to be temps with possibility of daytime maxes across parts of Scotland just 3/4 C and a possible ice day in the highlands.

Small chance for Ireland and SW uk tomorrow with fronts and some CAPE developing.

@Mr Frost latest run has -10 850 hpa line reaching here, not sure of the last time that happened in May.

I haven’t been looking at the other models been focusing on wrf nmm / eu it has been performing well as it usually does with thunderstorms etc that is the furthest out it goes but has been showing same past few runs so will be interesting

Didn’t think I would be seeing -10 850hpa in Scotland in May

@shuggee u asked a while back about -10 850 hpa aye well do u want it in May

Looking at the wrf eu Thursday could be similar area to today’s and Friday could be wide area covering Spain and France will keep an eye on future runs.

Storms now moving into the area that had the highest CAPE etc

Northern Spain active now Lightning & Thunderstorms - Europe EN.BLITZORTUNG.ORG Blitzortung.org provides lightning and thunderstorm information in real time on maps for USA, United Kingdom, Australia, new Zealand, Europa, Africa, Asia and other Countries. Weather: Rainfall Radar Spain WWW.WEATHERCAST.CO.UK Rainfall radar for Spain - see rainfall across Spain Weather Spain and Portugal, Satellite Weather Spain and Portugal, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in Spain and Portugal - SAT24.com EN.SAT24.COM Weather Spain and Portugal, Satellite Weather Spain and Portugal, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in Spain and Portugal - SAT24.com