Kirkcaldy Weather

Sun trying to break through the clouds here current conditions temp 6.6 C min temp 1.7 C at 09.40 am pressure 1017.31 hPa Rising looks like a frosty one tonight / tomorrow morning some places may struggle to get above 0 C tomorrow before the frost returns as we head into Christmas Day morning (nice and festive) should have some frost to land his sleigh on might be a bit nippy for the 's by the time has had his / / and 's / mince , hopefully the 's will help warm up the 's might be some cloud moving from west > east across the country during Christmas day courtesy of a front coming in from the Atlantic (dont think there will be much if any rain associated with the front, perhaps some spits and spots in a few unlucky places where the cloud is thickest) and then the possibility of some snowy fun and games during January (as i mentioned in the hunt for cold thread my date to look out for is the 8th January onward)

still looking very interesting and another thing I have noticed is the potential for both the UK / Europe and the northeast of the USA and Canada to get cold / snow at the same time, some of the GEFS are showing this , for anyone who may be heading out that way for New Year of if anyone has friends / relatives over in those areas. ensemble graph for New York City

18z GEFS

Some from the 12z GEFS I still believe that things will get interesting from a cold / snow POV from the 2nd week of Jan onward (8th Jan onward)

GEFS possibly starting to join the split warming party and some tasty looking charts

winters over @BLAST FROM THE PAST these the type of charts you have been waiting for? #winterofdiscontent some hints again at the split warming, hopefully they firm up on this idea soon NASA / GOES5 possibly heading towards the split too GFS P / FV3

18z GEFS a little bit too far west but the right idea of heights rising and given the time frame its more about looking for patterns than exact positioning some hints at a possible split warming too

2.5C and 78.6mm please

I am getting a serious case of deja vu / groundhog day in here with regards to those negative / worrying / winters over type posts that are about as stubborn as the PV! perhaps all this will end up in a blizzard just like in the film Fear not us coldies are prepared to deflect all those negative / winters over type posts Nothing has changed from my POV and we are not even at the peak of the initial strat displacement warming, the only question is if we get the split but lets wait and see what happens. Take anything up until the 2nd week of January as a bonus and enjoy Christmas and New Year I am not too knowledgeable when it comes to the MJO but perhaps it is worth factoring this in and this could be why there are some runs looking more low pressure dominated from what I am reading on those charts it looks like we are heading into phase 5 phase 5 linked to el nino in December think I seen some posts saying there is a slight lag at the moment and factor in the goings on in the strat this could be causing some confusion / disagreement among the models. like these? CMA still sticking to its guns I like the way the cfs 9 month is going for the middle of Jan

GFS P / FV3 becomes indecisive again just as its about to go for the split it looks like it has second thoughts, hopefully it makes up its mind by or just after Christmas @northwestsnow @feb1991blizzard @karlos1983 hopefully some more good runs tomorrow, goodnight from me

A few from the 18z GEFS and given the fact that these are still first week of January I will take these as bonus charts before my interest grows further from 2nd week of January onward an easterly waiting in the wings dont think it will be long before we are Poppin bottles in the ice, like a blizzard GFS P / FV3 doing its usual and making us wait for the final frames but looks like its on course to deliver the split warming

GFS P / FV3 just finished, often makes me want to start signing why are we waiting still it was worth the wait given the fact it maintains the split warming onto the 18z's tonight and hopefully they are down the boozer and produce some stonking charts

Some last minute additions on my Christmas list to Santa (expecting more charts along these lines becoming more frequent as we head through Christmas and towards New Year) trying to link those heights through the north pole / arctic POTENTIAL increasing for a starter before the main course and possibly dessert later in January / February? - I hope so

these the charts you are looking for mate?

A nice sunny day here today with just a few small clouds floating past, much better after all of the dreich rainy days recently, current conditions Temp 7.7 C pressure 996.92 hPa Falling some charts for midday / early afternoon on Christmas day ECM also show the ridge of high pressure moving in looks like the UKMO has a pesky little low trying to spoil the dry Christmas day theme overnight ICON GEM NAVGEM CMA FIM CPTEC looks like the one you want for a chance of a white Christmas CFS 1 month 9 month possibly something a little bit wintry / sleety so it looks like a ridge of high pressure and a dry settled Christmas is the most likely outcome but still time for this to change, if I cant have a white Christmas I would rather a dry sunny and frosty one like those being shown rather than a mild wet and windy one.

Oh dear I see some panic / doubt has crept into a few posts in here, its Christmas cheer up Santa will be here soon with the stratospheric warming I am still sticking to my guns with the 2nd week of January onward seeing the blocking head into more favourable positions for us to hopefully pull in something colder and potentially snowy, it would be good if the panic merchants /doubters could look at things with a glass half full for a change instead of a glass half empty, just because some of the predicted cold spells have went wrong in the past doesn't mean this will happen every time and in fact the last predicted meaningful cold spell couldn't really have went any better with the beast from the east. GP has mentioned the 7th January for the possible modelled effects to start showing, so anything showing before that is a bonus and as I said I feel it might take a few goes before the heights fall into the correct position for us to go cold but we will wait and see how it pans out. personally I use the GEFS to look for pattern changes / signals of a possible pattern and these showing those ridges / blocking are a positive to me and it wouldn't take much of a shift in the position of those heights for us to be getting nearer to going cold cold pool in the east heading in the right direction and those are all before the 2nd week of January GFS P /FV3 finally gets the split warming but will it stick to it this time Three keywords for the next few weeks from me are the 3 p's POSITIVITY POTENTIAL PATIENCE and hopefully during January the keyword will be SNOW

GFS P / FV3 ends with the high pretty much centered over the UK but there is a small effort to move the high towards the NW / Greenland as far as the strat it is still going at a snails pace trying to make up its mind whether it is going to be a split warming or not (more runs needed hopefully it gives us a better idea by the end of the week)

looks like Santa will be delivering one of the best presents we could ask for with the stratospheric warming which will hopefully deliver the goods during January cheers Santa not intending this to be rude or too blunt but taking the GFS P / FV3 that is rolling out as an example looks a pretty good guide to the high / low pressures and that is at 288h

Think the word to sum up the 12z GEFS would be POTENTIAL Even if it doesn't lead to cold at the first attempt I believe there will be more chances as January progresses and hopefully one of them will lead to the UK hitting the snow jackpot

possibly some agreement starting on the first attempt at the ridge / area of above average heights around Christmas (so possibly a cold dry and frosty Christmas) then its a question of how far north / north west / north east this gets and if it can lead to a northerly or easterly at the first time of asking, probably not but good to see this as a possibility so quickly the calm before the snowstorm? Just waiting to see if any of the GEFS 12z's go cold / blocked

I know you already got a response but I use these 2 websites https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php and this to find the latitude / longitude of a location https://www.latlong.net/ here is Reykjavik https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=64.126518&lon=-21.817438&ville= yes good to see the PV / coldest air shift to the eastern side and hopefully if an easterly does develop it will be from Siberia with love Good to see the positivity returning in here, long may it last All I want for Christmas is...... further upgrades from the GEFS and other models please those dates might be slightly early but nice to see them heading in that direction, looks like the first ridge of high pressure may start to develop on or just after Christmas so one to keep an eye on where it heads if it does develop.

fantastic post @Bring Back1962-63 hopefully it will ease some of the worries on here. A few from the 18z GEFS, again there are some that throw some ridges of high pressure into the mix but the nearest in terms of going towards an easterly is P12 (although I suspect it might be the 2nd week of January onwards that the potential for the easterly becomes greater but we will wait and see) looks like P7 gets near to a split warming P14 also hinting at this even if it ends up being just the displacement event if we go into the new year with the strat looking like what pretty much all of the GEFS members show it as then it would be very surprising if this didn't lead to us having a pretty good shot at something colder during January / February depending on how fast the effects of the warming take to appear on the day to day pressure charts and where the blocking sets up. Certainly is going to be fascinating to see how this all unfolds and hopefully we end up on the cold / snowy side of things The phrase slowly slowly catchy monkey springs to mind in this situation with patience being the key word in the next few weeks.

a few more GEFS members showing more charts that are blocked or have ridges of high pressure heading into favourable places for us to get cold down the line, hopefully the start of a trend as we head into the new year. not sure how good the CMA is at strat forecasts but it has this by the 27th December

yes P19 nearly with a full split a few others (all 20 look pretty good) P13 with possibly immediate response signs could lead to fun and games (I expect more charts will start showing blocking as we head towards the last week of December / first week of January) a few other models FIM showing the initial displacement warming CMA NASA/GOES5 0z GEM 12z possibly trying to build heights to our north just after Christmas GFS P / FV3 also inching towards the split event, think it might get the job done in tomorrows runs