Kirkcaldy Weather

GFS P also goes into the new year looking for the split warming event

if we enter the new year with the stratosphere in this state surely it would only be a matter of time before the PV is destroyed and the possibility of colder weather coming our way would be on the rise. @Mike Poole looking for any signs of possible immediate responses to the strat warmings, only found 1 from that run but hopefully more develop in future runs think we could be singing this soon to the PV

Snow did eventually start mixing in with the rain/sleet/hail/ice last night after midnight, very fine small flakes, was nice to see but hopefully the next snowfall chance this winter will deliver for the more low lying members like myself, was nice to see @More Snow and his family and some others in here got enough snow for some lovely photos current conditions here Temp 5.4 1000.38 hPa Rising rainfall today 4.8 mm

stayed dry most of the day here before this sleet / freezing rain combo moved in a few hours ago, looks like some heavier precip heading this way from the S / SW over the next few hours so hopefully the intensity will mix some snow in. current temp 3.3 C Dew Point 0.9 Rainfall today 2.8 mm right on cue a heavier bit of precip and little bits of ice / hail / graupel mixed in with the sleet/rain

that the signal for a split event continues to grow, could already be some positive results for us coldies from the initial displacement event and add to that the possible split too and it could be a January / winter to remember I think kesha and pitbull sum up the future for the stratosphere / PV nicely It's going down, I'm yelling timber End of the night, it's going downOne more shot, another roundEnd of the night, it's going down We about to climb, wild, 'cause it's about to go down and also an outside chance of something wintry / festive for Christmas

@Mike Poole it is P18 this time that is nearly at the split warming stage some other interesting looking charts from the 18z GEFS

Yes it looks like there will be a front which will cross the country through tomorrow morning which could give a flurry / snow shower just about anywhere and then the low and its associated fronts will move in from lunchtime onwards estimate from me for the arrival of the low/fronts would be around 12/1pm in the west moving east through the rest of the day / evening no worries I enjoy posting these kinds of charts especially when snow is involved ?️ current conditions here Temp 2.9 C Dew Point -1.5 C pressure 1017.71 hPa Falling Rapidly

hard to tell where will be the best placed for snow tomorrow, some from the 18z, think it will be a nowcasting situation HIRLAM has some snow showers / flurries scattered across the country from early tomorrow morning before the main action later in the day ICON is the worst of the bunch from an IMBY point of view (Fife snow shield fully operational) we all end up with at least a temporary covering and can get some decent snow pics and hopefully this is just the starter with lots more snow to come this winter

GFS P has some temporary snow cover all the way down the country and into the SE, there is a pocket of slightly milder air then cooler air sweeps in behind so could be rain > snow > freezing rain or something along those lines (a real nightmare for forecasters)

Its the ARPEGE and HIRLAM you want to verify for your area A new game show for the chance to win tons eh snaw or nae snaw ataw starts tomorrow across Scotland which will you get? look ootside yer windae the morn and find oot

latest GFS rolling out and a snow bullseye for us Fifers / Perth with 10+cm widely if its correct @Blitzen @Big Innes Madori @Benvironment

Thanks, hopefully this will be a growing trend in the next few runs and the PV will be at the of its life and a growing signal for a couple of warming attempts

P17 not far off a split stratospheric warming at the end after the initial displacement event also plenty of potential at the end of the run P8 with some snow around just after Christmas and a few charts showing the wintry potential for tomorrow with rain, sleet, freezing rain and snow hopefully the HIRLAM has it right and we will be needing dug out @More Snow

a few interesting charts within the 18z GEFS and also from one of the latest cfs runs hinting at heights redeveloping over scandi and possibly giving us the easterly that is being hinted at for January

yes GFS P still the best in terms of most widespread snow could be quite a close call between rain / snow but it might just be helpful if this ends up being a night time event with the cooler temps / dew points

looking through the 12z GEFS these 2 members seem to have the snow slightly further south than the rest (still time for the boundary between rain/ snow to move north or south in the coming runs)

found some ECM members which has the two of you in the sweet spot for the possible snow on Saturday (these will change once the 12z rolls out later tonight) https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/perthshire-and-kinross/m24_snow-depth-in/20181215-1800z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/perthshire-and-kinross/m19_snow-depth-in/20181215-1800z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/perthshire-and-kinross/m12_snow-depth-in/20181215-1800z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/perthshire-and-kinross/m6_snow-depth-in/20181215-1800z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/perthshire-and-kinross/snow-depth-in/20181215-1800z.html still looking good for the majority of Scotland to get some snow cover by the end of the weekend, might be temporary if the milder air can make its mind up where it is going https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/9bf9b6df2472b53b5595bbf4f65d059f/snow-depth-in/20181215-1800z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/9bf9b6df2472b53b5595bbf4f65d059f/m10_snow-depth-in/20181215-1800z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/9bf9b6df2472b53b5595bbf4f65d059f/m12_snow-depth-in/20181215-1800z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/9bf9b6df2472b53b5595bbf4f65d059f/m19_snow-depth-in/20181215-1800z.html heres one for anyone in the SW of Scotland https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/south-ayrshire/m49_snow-depth-in/20181215-1800z.html 11 inches! (again dont take depths too literally but depending on the strength of the front / Atlantic air something in the 7-10 inch range somewhere in Scotland wouldn't surprise me) https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/9bf9b6df2472b53b5595bbf4f65d059f/m40_snow-depth-in/20181215-1800z.html if these kinds of charts are still showing by late Wednesday / Thursday I think we might need to get the number ready for Mr Plow to dig us out and send supplies to @More Snow and @edo who have been cut off by the snow and @edo's hot tub has frozen over BBC also going for heavy snow here on Saturday morning https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/0/2645298/day5

Hi, as I have said before I am not overly knowledgeable when it comes to the stratosphere but it certainly looks good / interesting at the moment and given GP's thoughts for a warming on the 26th December things look like they are coming along nicely. I was comparing current outlooks to this time in 2015 and I know which year I would prefer predicted 2018 chart same time frame in 2015 other years for comparison with what was being forecast on this day 2017 2016 there was an error on meteociel trying to get 2014, 2013,2011,2010,2009,2008,2007 2012 of course what happened back in February this year gave us amazing results with the beast from the east, we can end up with something that has even half the severity of that event

some interesting charts starting to appear at the end of the 06z GEFS, again possibly a quick reaction to the predicted stratospheric warming 06z 10hPa mean

a few of the best looking ones looks like Santa could be bringing a stratospheric warming with him on his sleigh this year

these 2 GEFS members caught my eye from the 12z, possibly an immediate response to the stratospheric warming, could be some cracking charts appearing in the next few weeks I think

keeping an eye on the potential for us Scots to get some snow at the end of next week (click on the link to see the snowfall charts, tried to save and copy the image but it shows up blank) https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/9bf9b6df2472b53b5595bbf4f65d059f/m6_snow-depth-in/20181215-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/9bf9b6df2472b53b5595bbf4f65d059f/m12_snow-depth-in/20181215-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/9bf9b6df2472b53b5595bbf4f65d059f/m16_snow-depth-in/20181215-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/9bf9b6df2472b53b5595bbf4f65d059f/m17_snow-depth-in/20181215-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/9bf9b6df2472b53b5595bbf4f65d059f/m18_snow-depth-in/20181215-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/9bf9b6df2472b53b5595bbf4f65d059f/m33_snow-depth-in/20181215-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/9bf9b6df2472b53b5595bbf4f65d059f/m38_snow-depth-in/20181215-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/9bf9b6df2472b53b5595bbf4f65d059f/m40_snow-depth-in/20181215-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/9bf9b6df2472b53b5595bbf4f65d059f/m42_snow-depth-in/20181215-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/9bf9b6df2472b53b5595bbf4f65d059f/m49_snow-depth-in/20181215-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018120812/9bf9b6df2472b53b5595bbf4f65d059f/snow-depth-in/20181215-1800z.html obviously given the time frame its just a chance at the moment but I definitely wouldn't be surprised to see a frontal / battleground snowfall event across Scotland at the end of next week GFS P also going for snow stratosphere also looking like heating up towards Christmas Here's to a cold / snow filled winter across Scotland (hopefully) ???????

I am not very knowledgeable when it comes to the stratosphere but this from P5 looks tasty and hopefully could lead to a knockout punch for the PV (yes its FI but it is a growing trend among the ensembles and main GFS runs) a few other ensemble members with some sort of warming in that area at the same time frame

-8 850's over large parts of the UK and -9s moving in from the east whilst the Atlantic tries to nudge in which screams the potential for battleground / frontal snowfalls to me and still some snow showers coming from the E probably (does anybody have a link to the ECM precip charts, thought I had it bookmarked but must have lost it, cheers in advance)

18z control run some snow showers from the east then the Atlantic tries to get in = possible battleground / frontal snowfalls (obviously not to be taken to literally at the moment but positive wintry signs continuing) somewhere could end up with a good dumping of snow if the GFS P comes off P15 goes for a reload from the north and probably into the freezer in the week leading up to Christmas control a bit of an outlier later on but still a good set of ensembles and the slightly less cold runs are probably more to do with the position of the high rather than Atlantic influence