Kirkcaldy Weather

12z GEFS P4 P7 P10 P12 (split PV ) P15 (split PV) P17 P18

P3 P10 P18 P20 P10 GEM 12z Oslo pressure on the rise

P4 from the GEFS legacy 00z run 25th November 2010 not saying it would get as cold as it did in 2010 but nice to see some of these charts in the ensembles rather than a raging Atlantic. 06z GEFS P5 P7 some deep cold to the east on P13 P19 looks like possibly a dip in pressure after mid month in Greenland then a rise again Reykjavik pressure chart starting to look interesting with a possible rise in pressure after mid month with a couple taking it above 1045 hpa scandi high (Oslo) looking to gain strength with some also getting towards 1045 hpa

P15 the pick of the bunch (plenty more have the high nearby or trying to get in a better position for us to get the cold, certainly not a zonal outlook at the moment)

as I said on Monday the potential for more blocked patterns to be shown within the models this week. GEFS control run P2 P4 P5 P6 P8 P9 P13 P15

18z GEFS control run - P4 - P13 P20

P12 shows this (yes its FI but still a possible outcome) P14 is the kind of pattern I am keeping an eye on with the scandi high heading towards Greenland possibly giving us an easterly PV very weak on P20

P19 has a nice pattern with the lows diving south some interesting patterns in the GEM ensembles from the 0z run P9 pick of the bunch P8 just shows how much the models are struggling with the difference in the pressure forecast for Oslo Friday Today Very difficult to say whether the pressure will go higher or lower in Reykjavik Greenland pretty split too I think the ups and downs will continue in the models this week with some runs going more unsettled and some keeping the high to the east stronger with more of a blocked pattern.

P10 from the GEM 0z wouldn't be an awful position to be in by day 7 with a slight shift of the scandi high and better position of that low to our west and that colder air to the east could head our way think the quicker the cold can develop to our east the better.

here are GEFS at around 50hr intervals starting at around the 100hr mark - 300hr mark which is obviously well into FI 102h all pretty much in agreement with the low just to our west 150h plenty trying to get some kind of block in place 204h seems to be lots of possibilities at this time frame but still the majority with the high to our east 252h almost similar to the 102h chart with a low to our west and plenty showing the high to our east 300h less agreement with some unsettled but some with the high to our east GEM ensembles pretty similar 102h 150h 204h 300h Could be a repeating pattern with the lows just to our west and the scandi high trying to move westwards with possible easterly's for us at times.

Looks like a slight rise in the scandi high going by the pressure graphs for Oslo and a 50/50 whether pressure will rise towards Iceland going by the Reykjavik chart looks like a slight decline in the pressure over Greenland (chart is for Nuuk) although hard to tell after around the 11th / 12th November with a split

control P1 P2 P6 P7 P8 P9 P10 P11 P12 P13 P14 P15 P16 P17 P18 So that is the control run and 15 members out of the 20 showing either a weak easterly or some form of blocking either to our east / north east or north / north west at some point in the run

06z GEFS are not too bad with a few trying to get some kind of easterly with the lows diving south and still showing blocking to our north GEM 0z with the same kind of idea

Yes quite a few have the high nearby but struggle to get it in the right place for us to get the cold air, P1 about the best of the bunch NAVGEM not too bad with the high trying to link between scandi / Greenland think the models will be struggling for a good few days trying to work out the position this high is going to take but it ends up in the right place for us to get an early taste of winter.

P2 with pretty much the perfect setup and reminiscent of 2010 P7 not far off getting the cold air in P9 P17 P18

P1 brings back memories of 2010 P3 P4 P7 P9 P16

P9 P7 P11 P12 P13 P15

Two words to some up the 18z GEFS - NORTHERN BLOCKING

P5 P8 P11 P20 ECM GEM I am liking the direction the models seem to be heading with this scandi high...

yes I have been closely monitoring over the past few days and I am keeping my eye on the growing scandi high possibly retrogressing towards Greenland leading us into an easterly (trend seems to be for 2nd week of November) P12 on the 18z is about as close as the GEFS members have got so far.

P2 & P3 try to get the scandi - Greenland heights linking, P7, P15 and P20 also keen on higher pressure over scandi, charts like these begin to move into the reliable time frame.

ECM and GEM pretty similar at 240h, more unsettled for us especially on the ECM but higher pressure trying to link from scandi - Greenland

Taking some of the GEFS members anomaly charts for the 300h mark still plenty showing higher pressure around scandi and some getting it into the Arctic or across towards Greenland, perhaps a more unsettled spell of weather then hopefully get blocking better aligned later in November for a shot at some colder weather. ECM overnight run also hinted at a similar pattern

Pretty decent GFS 18z anomaly charts the theme for northern blocking continues .....

P12 gets heights to Greenland but ends up with more of a west based negative NAO P16 similar P17 gets the high over / near the uk and gets the cold building into Europe as I mentioned earlier