Kirkcaldy Weather

some interesting charts starting to appear more frequently for us coldies, some of the better ones from a UK point of view from the 18z GEFS blocking galore then retrogression possibly as @feb1991blizzard says good looking ensemble graphs too if this develops into a colder pattern it could be an interesting festive run up to Christmas

another good GFS P run with snow showers packing in from the east that this will be a growing trend for the heights to develop to our NE (scandi) during December

a few from the 18z GEFS P10 decent ensemble graphs for here too

From an article on the met office website Meteorological winter season The meteorological winter begins on 1 December 2018 and will end on 28 February 2019. Astronomical winter season The astronomical winter begins on 21 December 2018 and ends on 20 March 2019. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/seasons/winter/when-does-winter-start so going by that winter cannot be over as it has not even begun yet, yes a spell of weather influenced by the Atlantic has moved into the UK but will this continue for the entire upcoming winter? given the tendency for the GFS to overdo the lows at this time of year / in FI and the fact that we have already seen heights building from scandi > Iceland and over towards Greenland in the past few weeks this could be a possible recurring pattern this winter, (anyone who is so sure that we are headed for a non stop zonal winter perhaps they could provide the lottery numbers too being able to predict things well into the future) Even tonight's ECM has a signal for above average heights in the arctic So in summary Is winter over? Will there be chances for colder weather to develop this winter? Should people get hung up on every hr of every model run? NO (as GP mentioned there is the chance for heights to build to our NE) So winter is not over, highly unlikely to be zonal all winter and there is the possibility of heights rising to our NE during December. A song to remember for those that believe it will be zonal all winter.

some nice charts from the 00z run of the GEFS Legacy a few with some cold pooling over Europe

some lovely blocked charts, hopefully the start of a colder trend being picked up. P12 is close to being a jackpot run ( beast from the east part 2?)

4.7C and 69.4mm please

12z gfs control run is a thing of beauty later on in the run with a rebuild of heights across scandi and a beast from the east part 2 moving in nice to see these charts among the possibilities at this time of year rather than the usual raging pv / zonal onslaught. still a bit of scatter on the ensemble graphs for here but still plenty falling into the colder category

possibly a second push of heights heading into Greenland by 192 and certainly doesn't scream raging Atlantic / zonal to me 168 192 216

IF the Atlantic does try to make inroads in FI always the possibility for the fronts coming in to meet the cold air leading to some snow like what P6 shows and also P11 (more marginal) another IF is the first attempt at getting the high to Greenland, P4 weakens the first but goes for a 2nd attempt later in the run P10 destroys the PV P14 also has a second go at a Greenland high Ensemble graphs still look fine for here Kulusuk (east Greenland) still signs for pressure to rise then a bit more scatter later as to be expected Puppebu (arctic) again still on track for a slight rise in pressure think the signals later on for lower pressure could see those lows diving south / SE possibly into scandi or towards us Reykjavik also pressure rising and again those that lean towards lower pressure later on might not be too bad if the high has moved to Greenland by then Think the area to focus on first before going too far ahead is the movement of the high from Scandi > Iceland >Greenland.

pretty much identical for here too lets hope the trend continues GEFS looking great (pretty much all are blocked these were some of the better ones for UK snow / cold)

think The Rock summed up the waiting for the cold air arriving in the UK on that run nicely also nice to see the north sea snow machine firing up later in the run think there will be some great looking charts in the 18z GEFS again too.

taking the charts in roughly 50hr steps from around the 100hr mark GEFS 102h - scandi high in place 150h - 204 h - period to watch for the high moving from scandi > Iceland > Greenland 252h - more of an unreliable time frame but still BLOCKED 300h + more options on the table so probably not worth focusing on too much GEM ensembles (same as above) 102h 150h 204h 252h

yes some great looking charts within the 18z GEFS

certainly no worries or concerns regarding the strength on the block / high from me 12z pressure graphs Kulusuk (east Greenland) Nuuk (west Greenland) Oslo yes perhaps a slight dip but remember we are looking for the highest of the pressure to transfer from scandi > Iceland > Greenland Reykjavik Puppebu (Jan Mayen in arctic)

front tries to come in at the end of the run ....... BOOM almost countrywide snow some changes from run to run (as to be expected) but none are falling into the mild / zonal category.

18z GEFS P2 P3 P5 P6 P13 P16

I had been looking at Nuuk for the pressure charts in Greenland (west side of Greenland) but here is the 12z for Kulusuk on the eastern side of Greenland and there is an upwards trend after the 17th November here is Nuuk - also a slight upward trend but more of a split, now here is Puppebu on the island of Jan Mayen in the arctic and also a trend for a rise in pressure

lets hope she gets to take more pictures of the snow this winter too .... anyway back to the "weather" models, dont think there is any need for panic/concern over the latest ECM which still shows heights building into the arctic and a few slight changes in the position of the scandi high could see it going down the GFS 12z route

hopefully this is the theme of winter 2018/2019 12z GEFS control P4 P5 P12 P13 P14 P20

keep these coming please GFS arctic full of blocking new theme song for the GFS if these charts continue

P12 P15 P18 P19 P20 GEM 12z ensembles also looking good and some from the latest runs of the infamous cfs 1 month version 9 month version

Yes Steve certainly looks like an interesting time coming up for us cold weather fans. P2 P7 P8 P12 P13 P14 P17 Oslo pressure going almost off the chart more members going for the pressure to rise in Reykjavik still a split in Greenland