[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

taking the charts in roughly 50hr steps from around the 100hr mark

GEFS

102h  - scandi high in place 

150h - 204 h - period to watch for the high moving from scandi > Iceland > Greenland   

252h - more of an unreliable time frame but still BLOCKED 

300h + more options on the table so probably not worth focusing on too much

GEM ensembles (same as above)

102h 

150h 

204h 

252h 

 

 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

23 minutes ago, booferking said:

Huge amount of Greenland highs on 18z would say 3/4 of the runs show some signal for it mean below for 276hr.

yes some great looking charts within the 18z GEFS

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

certainly no worries or concerns regarding the strength on the block / high from me 

12z pressure graphs

Kulusuk (east Greenland) 

Nuuk (west Greenland) 

Oslo  yes perhaps a slight dip but remember we are looking for the highest of the pressure to transfer from scandi > Iceland > Greenland

Reykjavik 

Puppebu (Jan Mayen in arctic) 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

gfsp nh view late on ……….

 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

front tries to come in at the end of the run ....... BOOM almost countrywide snow   some changes from run to run (as to be expected) but none are falling into the mild / zonal category. 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

18z GEFS 

P2 

P3 

P5 

P6 

P13 

P16 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

I had been looking at Nuuk for the pressure charts in Greenland (west side of Greenland) but here is the 12z for Kulusuk on the eastern side of Greenland and there is an upwards trend after the 17th November   here is Nuuk -  also a slight upward trend but more of a split, now here is Puppebu on the island of Jan Mayen in the arctic and also a trend for a rise in pressure  

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Is that Kelly Brook I see cavorting naked just outside my window?

lets hope she gets to take more pictures of the snow this winter too .... 

anyway back to the "weather" models, dont think there is any need for panic/concern over the latest ECM which still shows heights building into the arctic and a few slight changes in the position of the scandi high could see it going down the GFS 12z route 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

4 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

    hopefully this is the theme of winter 2018/2019 

12z GEFS

control 

P4 

P5  

P12 

P13 

P14 

P20 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

keep these coming please GFS    

arctic full of blocking  

new theme song for the GFS if these charts continue 

 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

P12  

P15 

P18 

P19  

P20 

GEM 12z ensembles also looking good

  

and some from the latest runs of the infamous cfs 

1 month version  

9 month version  

 

 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Jeez some crazy ensembles ! Things are about to get busy in here....

Yes Steve certainly looks like an interesting time coming up for us cold weather fans.

P2  

P7  

 

P8 

P12  

P13 

P14 

P17 

Oslo pressure going almost off the chart 

more members going for the pressure to rise in Reykjavik 

still a split in Greenland 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

12z GEFS

P4   

P7   

P10 

P12 (split PV )  

P15 (split PV) 

P17  

P18 

 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

P3  

P10    

P18   

P20  

P10 GEM 12z    

Oslo pressure on the rise 

 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

P4 from the GEFS legacy 00z run

 

25th November 2010  not saying it would get as cold as it did in 2010 but nice to see some of these charts in the ensembles rather than a raging Atlantic.

06z GEFS 

P5  

P7  

some deep cold to the east on P13 

P19 

looks like possibly a dip in pressure after mid month in Greenland then a rise again

Reykjavik pressure chart starting to look interesting with a possible rise in pressure after mid month with a couple taking it above 1045 hpa 

scandi high (Oslo) looking to gain strength with some also getting towards 1045 hpa

  

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

P15 the pick of the bunch  (plenty more have the high nearby or trying to get in a better position for us to get the cold, certainly not a zonal outlook at the moment)

     

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

On 05/11/2018 at 14:18, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

I think the ups and downs will continue in the models this week with some runs going more unsettled and some keeping the high to the east stronger with more of a blocked pattern.

 

as I said on Monday the potential for more blocked patterns to be shown within the models this week.

GEFS

control run  

P2  

P4  

P5  

P6 

P8 

P9 

P13  

P15 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

18z GEFS

control run -   

P4 -  

P13  

 

P20  

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Looks like they see brief northerlies behind passing systems and they say “ snow will probably stay over high ground in the north.”

 

P12 shows this (yes its FI but still a possible outcome) 

P14 is the kind of pattern I am keeping an eye on with the scandi high heading towards Greenland possibly giving us an easterly  

PV very weak on P20  

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

P19 has a nice pattern with the lows diving south 

some interesting patterns in the GEM ensembles from the 0z run

P9 pick of the bunch    

P8 

just shows how much the models are struggling with the difference in the pressure forecast for Oslo

Friday 

Today 

Very difficult to say whether the pressure will go higher or lower in Reykjavik  

Greenland pretty split too 

I think the ups and downs will continue in the models this week with some runs going more unsettled and some keeping the high to the east stronger with more of a blocked pattern.

 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

P10 from the GEM 0z wouldn't be an awful position to be in by day 7 with a slight shift of the scandi high and better position of that low to our west and that colder air to the east could head our way   think the quicker the cold can develop to our east the better.

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

here are GEFS at around 50hr intervals starting at around the 100hr mark - 300hr mark which is obviously well into FI

102h  all pretty much in agreement with the low just to our west

150h  plenty trying to get some kind of block in place

204h  seems to be lots of possibilities at this time frame but still the majority with the high to our east

252h  almost similar to the 102h chart with a low to our west and plenty showing the high to our east

300h  less agreement with some unsettled but some with the high to our east

GEM ensembles pretty similar 

102h 

150h 

204h 

300h 

Could be a repeating pattern with the lows just to our west and the scandi high trying to move westwards with possible easterly's for us at times. 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

Looks like a slight rise in the scandi high going by the pressure graphs for Oslo  and a 50/50 whether pressure will rise towards Iceland going by the Reykjavik chart  looks like a slight decline in the pressure over Greenland (chart is for Nuuk) although hard to tell after around the 11th / 12th November with a split 

 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

27 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

So 3 perterbations show this out of how many please?

control 

P1 

P2 

P6

P7  

P8  

P9 

P10 

P11 

P12 

P13 

P14 

P15  

P16 

P17 

P18 

So that is the control run and 15 members out of the 20 showing either a weak easterly or some form of blocking either to our east / north east or north / north west at some point in the run