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Kirkcaldy Weather

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Posts posted by Kirkcaldy Weather

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Big swing towards blocking on the GEFS.

    yes I have been closely monitoring over the past few days and I am keeping my eye on the growing scandi high possibly retrogressing towards Greenland leading us into an easterly (trend seems to be for 2nd week of November) P12 on the 18z is about as close as the GEFS members have got so far. 

    tempresult_zlr1.gif tempresult_anb6.gif

    • Like 5

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Taking some of the GEFS members anomaly charts for the 300h mark still plenty showing higher pressure around scandi and some getting it into the Arctic or across towards Greenland, perhaps a more unsettled spell of weather then hopefully get blocking better aligned later in November for a shot at some colder weather.

    gensnh-3-5-300.png gensnh-4-5-300.png gensnh-5-5-300.pnggensnh-8-5-300.png gensnh-11-5-300.png gensnh-15-5-300.png

    ECM overnight run also hinted at a similar pattern 

    ECH1-240.GIF?26-12 ECH101-240.GIF?26-12

    • Like 3

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    GEM tries to get higher pressure pushing into Greenland at the end of the run gemnh-0-240.png?00 gem-0-240.png?00

    NAVGEM still my pick of the bunch with great placement of the scandi high navgem-0-132.png?24-13

    Some of today's runs struggling with where to go after the northerly / easterly, hopefully the blocking falls into place for us to receive colder weather but I think the 2nd best option would be something close to what P16 shows with the high over us and colder weather going into Europe cooling down the continent just in case we can get another easterly down the line, still lots of chopping and changing to come in the models before we get a better idea of where we are headed.

    gensnh-16-1-384.png gensnh-16-0-384.png

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

     

    Edit, by the way, anyone else think the T240 chart has an air of implausibility about it?

    image.thumb.jpg.d8d7a9e63f8efcf58564f46fde568376.jpg

    as we have seen with the upcoming northerly and with scandi/greenland highs in the past some of the models are far too keen to break them down quickly, fingers crossed the scandi high can develop and hold back the lows (slider lows possibly?)

    Winter 2018/19

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kirkcaldy Weather

    38 minutes ago, Norrance said:

    Someone earlier mentioned ssts in the North Sea being too high for snow. Does anyone know what the ssts were like in October 2012 and 2008, both of which brought snow showers to low levels (widely in 2008)? I had snow falling here at sea level both years though admittedly just a flurry in 2012. 

    Not sure if these help 

    2008 - anomnight.10.27.2008.gif anomnight.10.30.2008.gif

    2012 - anomnight.10.25.2012.gif anomnight.10.29.2012.gif

    latest sst chart anomnight.10.18.2018.gif does look like the current sst's are a lot cooler to the north/ north west of the uk than they were in 2012, although there was some cool water in 08, current chart looks warmer to the east/se of the uk

    • Like 1
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