Kirkcaldy Weather

Have a zoom in on Kirkcaldy even in an easterly they still refuse to include me totally cool we have seen weather events in the past exceed what the warnings have said / perform better for those outside the warnings

mix of a dusting - covering of snow and graupel I am usually not that keen on the euro 4 but am praying if its even a bit close to recent output

Yoda keeping us right same as you here very close we just need that band a short few miles south

Graupel pinging off the window around 1am had some more showers so far tiny bit settling in parts earlier. Should be getting more unstable later tonight with a few hundred J/kg of CAPE increasing the intensity of the precip and the first opportunity to be looking out for thundersnow can also see the more unstable air with the lighter blue colour coming in on the pressure chart

Yeah my dewpoint now down to 0.1C temperature same as @Hawesy also speaking of the Sahara there are some pics of the snow in Europe with the sky extra orange due to Saharan dust, not sure if it will reach up here but pretty interesting

Chance for something pretty special

3.7C / 2.8C DP for me, I'm expecting them to start dropping off from around 6pm and will be very interesting to see how long it takes for snow to lie with such a wet ground

Found this on twitter, are there records for streamer distances

Little look at the convective precip that would be the potential thundersnow last 2 runs bearing in mind I still think that might be underestimated slightly and the position of the showers will be best known on radar, I always find it a bit hard reading the cm scale but looks like a wide bit of 8-10cm through fife with more to follow after that

The reason it tries to show the streamer going to rain is less cold dew points but not worth worrying about currently, more positive that they are now starting to show up that is a fantastic flow for here

@edo no promises were made would expect one of us will report it between Sunday, Monday, Tuesday

The rain will likely turn to snow in quite a few areas through tomorrow with the colder air coming in and some first ideas coming out though I would expect lots of surprises as models won’t pick up all the features in this setup Sunday looks like the persistent lightish snow again I would expect heavier stuff in there as the North Sea starts cranking up and then the flow looks like being much more unstable for Monday and Tuesday the totals have looked consistent considering the models tend not to get them correct most of the time I think they could be UNDERestimating at the minute my thoughts for here are hope for at least 5 cm, believe I could get 10 cm, given the setup isn’t too dissimilar to the BFTE and 2010 and if the showers pile in similar wouldn’t be crazy to think close to a foot is possible

that's got me I think amber warnings should be out by Saturday afternoon unless they plan to leave it last minute like previous events

At least you can see out your window, mines is covered in raindrops thanks to the gusty winds

I’m as confident as can be when it comes to weather that the North Sea will be jam packed with showers and without wanting to sound too disrespectful those warnings just seem lazy to me as with between -10 and -12 850hpa moving over these sea temperatures 14.4 and 16.4 degree temperature difference they wont be light showers no way I’m buying that we will more likely be talking about the kind that could have thundersnow potential GEFS temperatures for here worth a mention ice days

I would think it will just be when rather than if they are going to issue an amber warning from Sunday > Tuesday might extend quite a bit west, also often in the big cold spells the breaking down of the colder air you can add a day or two on so it was looking like possibly Wednesday but this mornings charts already wanting to extend the cold

Brief summary of the current outlook Cold air that supports snowfall -8 850 hpa and 528dam and below move south west across Scotland as we go through Saturday afternoon and night. Then the flow will gradually go from ESE > E bringing in -10 850 hpa with -12 near the east coast and -14 in the North Sea, that will get the North Sea firing up currently looking like 3 FULL DAYS!! of showers / streamers aplenty Sunday,Monday,Tuesday that is as far is I am looking currently some signs of a deeper low in the Atlantic wanting to come in after but that’s far into uncertain modelling. Hope all of us can enjoy snowy fun and one of the main joys of an easterly me and @Hawesy are first in line for the showers

What were the 500mb temps with the late November / start of December 2010 snow streamers

It’s too

This caught my eye is it normal to have tractors and other vehicles on standby makes you imagine big snowfall

Looks like Bigfoot has been enjoying the snow