Kirkcaldy Weather

It’s just about in the useable field of runners, logic suggests the low would have to move in one southerly direction with high pressure to the north and those cold 850 temps pushing west, oh how I wish there could be a straight forward snow event

The gem ensemble mean from the 00z looks like one of the best outcomes can’t do a gif so here’s 60-120-180 the last frame of the wrf nmm 0.05 does get the

Might be like a big horse race where would we place our money 06z gfs op going a bit high risk high reward the others take a slightly more relaxed route possibly longer lasting, I really am going to have to be like meditating homer ?

the bookmarked How the F**K ? GEFS MEAN with the North Sea going mental snow machine

If it does end up being a little bit slower in its movement with the developing low that might actually allow the cold to the east to be that bit more intense

Goes on to be as near to perfection as is possible homer could be gearing up

getting close to “this is actually going to happen” timeframe

GEM ensemble mean at +180 The mean always flattens things slightly and that's still a good flow.

Remember there will be changes with each run but that looks good and I believe that’s beasty entering on the right in the late stages

@Hawesy the 528 dam and colder 850 temperatures are sort of angled through fife and the 0C dewpoint similar, probably will be changing slightly from run to run til we get to then but maybe heavier precip could be favourable @Blitzen thanks for that report nope I was born in June 1996 hopefully me and @Hawesy can get some but I’m sure Blitzy will be the snow queen as is normally the case

Well somehow I got lower overnight temps than @Benvironment -0.5C / -1.7C DP lots going on with the charts and it’s a lottery trying to pick the most likely outcomes as a few have mentioned the 06z gfs op is what we would want to go straight into a snowy spell at the first opportunity. Latest wrf nmm looks better for snow but it’s crazily fine line between pish or paradise just the SE flow making me think will that be trouble for me and @Hawesy or maybe we will get lucky

If it’s the beast type cold that some are searching for the chances of that could be with what is being hinted as the 2nd attempt and it might be a similar way to how the BFTE developed. There’s enough changes with how the high develops firstly but why the negativity appears so quickly in here given the charts we are seeing doesn’t make much sense to me. current gfs run (whether it manages it on this run we will see as it is a tricky pattern to accomplish but I wouldn’t rule it out) > before BFTE

Yes, I’ll be truthfully honest I rarely use the ecm nothing really against it just tend to think the gfs picks up possible trends of patterns better especially combining the GEFS and GEM ensembles and so far this winter I think the new upgrade of the GFS has been performing pretty well, for whatever reason the ecm doesn’t seem keen to develop the blocking as much but with the MJO phases I posted the charts in the model thread the other week it should be similar to that of the GFS and GEM. There will be plenty of changes from run to run as we are seeing at the minute but hopefully we get the snowy outcome we are searching for.

P2 on the GEM ensembles another really close to getting the mega cold in exciting times watching the models currently ??

Sure I put a similar pic up few weeks back here's another anvil looking east .

Wet snow with this shower

No snow here but there’s @Blitzen got some eh currently 4.9C / DP 2.1 another reason is the flow today doesn’t have that big sea track from the east it’s sourced from the north east

More examples of that curving of lower pressure too soon to be discussing in any detail but the signal is there for a mega cold pool to the east ?

GFS 18z op really close to getting those Baltic 850 temps in just needs that high bit further north west and the pacific linkup being attempted again, it’s hard to explain but usually when you see that curve of the lower pressure like that it stops the pattern collapsing I often look for that.

Just a post on the sea effect snow. From what I remember the thundersnow here at start of December had a 850 hpa / sea temperature difference of about 11C, looking at quite a few of the websites about sea effect snow conditions a temperature difference of 13C looks to be the key for proper snow bands, the current sea temp here rounding that to 6C for easier calculation -5 850 hpa would be an 11 degree temperature difference -8 850 hpa (which is appearing as the current trend in the models) would be 14 degree difference -10 850 hpa which some runs are trying to get near the east coast would be a 16 degree difference I’ll leave the beast type 850s for now but you can probably do the working out for those should they arrive which remains a possibility. Lake/Ocean Effect Snow: Basic Ingredients STREAM1.CMATC.CN LAKE-EFFECT SNOW FORECASTING WWW.THEWEATHERPREDICTION.COM Obviously each area has different wind direction requirements for streamers here as straight an easterly as possible is perfect but I know @TomSE12 and @Paul Sherman are the go to for the subtle differences in the Thames streamers

Des Moines breaks single-day snowfall record set in 1895, Iowa WATCHERS.NEWS Des Moines in Iowa set a new single-day snowfall record on Monday, January 25, 2021, after the city recorded up to 26.2 cm (10.3 inches), breaking the...

@Hawesy I’m just doing my best to stay calm, looks like the models will be trying to figure out if it will be a solo scandi high, solo Greenland high or like BFTE with a retrogressive scandi - Greenland high but maybe with that pacific linkup which is what I would lean toward currently. Wrf nmms have shown a streamer to develop tonight for the last few days and can see signs of streamers looking at the radar currently in the north east.